Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Portland Press via the DOI in this recordWe are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).University of ExeterCSSP-Brazi

Linking phytoplankton community metabolism to the individual size distribution

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordQuantifying variation in ecosystem metabolism is critical to predicting the impacts of environmental change on the carbon cycle. We used a metabolic scaling framework to investigate how body size and temperature influence phytoplankton community metabolism. We tested this framework using phytoplankton sampled from an outdoor mesocosm experiment, where communities had been either experimentally warmed (+ 4 °C) for 10 years or left at ambient temperature. Warmed and ambient phytoplankton communities differed substantially in their taxonomic composition and size structure. Despite this, the response of primary production and community respiration to long- and short-term warming could be estimated using a model that accounted for the size- and temperature dependence of individual metabolism, and the community abundance-body size distribution. This work demonstrates that the key metabolic fluxes that determine the carbon balance of planktonic ecosystems can be approximated using metabolic scaling theory, with knowledge of the individual size distribution and environmental temperature.NERC. Grant Number: PASW06

Environmental fluctuations accelerate molecular evolution of thermal tolerance in a marine diatom

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this recordThe publisher correction to this article is in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34487Diatoms contribute roughly 20% of global primary production, but the factors determining their ability to adapt to global warming are unknown. Here we quantify the capacity for adaptation to warming in the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana. We find that evolutionary rescue under severe (32 °C) warming is slow, but adaptation to more realistic scenarios where temperature increases are moderate (26 °C) or fluctuate between benign and severe conditions is rapid and linked to phenotypic changes in metabolic traits and elemental composition. Whole-genome re-sequencing identifies genetic divergence among populations selected in the different warming regimes and between the evolved and ancestral lineages. Consistent with the phenotypic changes, the most rapidly evolving genes are associated with transcriptional regulation, cellular responses to oxidative stress and redox homeostasis. These results demonstrate that the evolution of thermal tolerance in marine diatoms can be rapid, particularly in fluctuating environments, and is underpinned by major genomic and phenotypic change.This study was funded by a Leverhulme Trust research grant (RPG-2013-335). Whole genome re-sequencing was carried out at Exeter Sequencing Service and Computational core facilities at the University of Exeter, where Dr. Karen Moore, Dr. Audrey Farbos, Paul O’Neill, and Dr. Konrad Paszkiewicz lead the handling of the samples. Exeter Squencing Services are supported by Medical Research Council Clinical Infrastructure award (MR/M008924/1), Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund (WT097835MF), Wellcome Trust Multi User Equipment Award (WT101650MA), and BBSRC LOLA award (BB/K003240/1)

Publisher Correction: Environmental fluctuations accelerate molecular evolution of thermal tolerance in a marine diatom

The article for which this is the publisher correction is in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32652The PDF version of this Article was updated shortly after publication following an error which resulted in the Φ symbol being omitted from the left hand side of equation 8. The HTML version was correct from the time of publication

Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming

Understanding how the metabolic rates of prokaryotes respond to temperature is fun-damental to our understanding of how ecosystem functioning will be altered by climatechange, as these micro-organisms are major contributors to global carbon efflux. Ecologicalmetabolic theory suggests that species living at higher temperatures evolve higher growthrates than those in cooler niches due to thermodynamic constraints. Here, using a globalprokaryotic dataset, we find that maximal growth rate at thermal optimum increases withtemperature for mesophiles (temperature optima.45◦C), but not thermophiles (&45◦C).Furthermore, short-term (within-day) thermal responses of prokaryotic metabolic rates aretypically more sensitive to warming than those of eukaryotes. Because climatic warmingwill mostly impact ecosystems in the mesophilic temperature range, we conclude that asmicrobial communities adapt to higher temperatures, their metabolic rates and therefore,biomass-specific CO2production, will inevitably rise. Using a mathematical model, weillustrate the potential global impacts of these findings

Role of carbon allocation efficiency in the temperature dependence of autotroph growth rate

To predict how plant growth rate will respond to temperature requires understanding how temperature drives the underlying metabolic rates. Although past studies have considered the temperature dependences of photosynthesis and respiration rates underlying growth, they have largely overlooked the temperature dependence of carbon allocation efficiency. By combining a mathematical model that links exponential growth rate of a population of photosynthetic cells to photosynthesis, respiration, and carbon allocation; to an experiment on a freshwater alga; and to a database covering a wide range of taxa, we show that allocation efficiency is crucial for predicting how growth rates will respond to temperature change across aquatic and terrestrial autotrophs, at both short and long (evolutionary) timescales

Temperature-driven selection on metabolic traits increases the strength of an algal-grazer interaction in naturally warmed streams

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Trophic interactions are important determinants of the structure and functioning of ecosystems. As the metabolism and consumption rates of ectotherms increase sharply with temperature, there are major concerns that global warming will increase the strength of trophic interactions, destabilizing food webs, and altering ecosystem structure and function. We used geothermally warmed streams that span an 11°C temperature gradient to investigate the interplay between temperature-driven selection on traits related to metabolism and resource acquisition, and the interaction strength between the keystone gastropod grazer, Radix balthica, and a common algal resource. Populations from a warm stream (~28°C) had higher maximal metabolic rates and optimal temperatures than their counterparts from a cold stream (~17°C). We found that metabolic rates of the population originating from the warmer stream were higher across all measurement temperatures. A reciprocal transplant experiment demonstrated that the interaction strengths between the grazer and its algal resource were highest for both populations when transplanted into the warm stream. In line with the thermal dependence of respiration, interaction strengths involving grazers from the warm stream were always higher than those with grazers from the cold stream. These results imply that increases in metabolism and resource consumption mediated by the direct, thermodynamic effects of higher temperatures on physiological rates are not mitigated by metabolic compensation in the long-term, and suggest that warming will increase the strength of algal-grazer interactions with likely knock-on effects for the biodiversity and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Leverhulme Trust Research , Grant/AwardNumber: RP G-2013-335; ERC-StG, Grant/Award Number : ERC-StG 67727

Interleukin-12/23 deficiency differentially affects pathology in male and female Alzheimer's disease-like mice

Pathological aggregation of amyloid-β (Aβ) is a main hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recent genetic association studies have linked innate immune system actions to AD development, and current evidence suggests profound gender differences in AD pathogenesis. Here, we characterise gender-specific pathologies in the APP23 AD-like mouse model and find that female mice show stronger amyloidosis and astrogliosis compared with male mice. We tested the gender-specific effect of lack of IL12p40, the shared subunit of interleukin (IL)-12 and IL-23, that we previously reported to ameliorate pathology in APPPS1 mice. IL12p40 deficiency gender specifically reduces A plaque burden in male APP23 mice, while in female mice, a significant reduction in soluble Aβ without changes in Aβ plaque burden is seen. Similarly, plasma and brain cytokine levels are altered differently in female versus male APP23 mice lacking IL12p40, while glial properties are unchanged. These data corroborate the therapeutic potential of targeting IL-12/IL-23 signalling in AD, but also highlight the importance of gender considerations when studying the role of the immune system and AD

Interleukin-12/23 deficiency differentially affects pathology in male and female Alzheimer's disease-like mice

Pathological aggregation of amyloid-β (Aβ) is a main hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recent genetic association studies have linked innate immune system actions to AD development, and current evidence suggests profound gender differences in AD pathogenesis. Here, we characterise gender-specific pathologies in the APP23 AD-like mouse model and find that female mice show stronger amyloidosis and astrogliosis compared with male mice. We tested the gender-specific effect of lack of IL12p40, the shared subunit of interleukin (IL)-12 and IL-23, that we previously reported to ameliorate pathology in APPPS1 mice. IL12p40 deficiency gender specifically reduces A plaque burden in male APP23 mice, while in female mice, a significant reduction in soluble Aβ without changes in Aβ plaque burden is seen. Similarly, plasma and brain cytokine levels are altered differently in female versus male APP23 mice lacking IL12p40, while glial properties are unchanged. These data corroborate the therapeutic potential of targeting IL-12/IL-23 signalling in AD, but also highlight the importance of gender considerations when studying the role of the immune system and AD

Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped largely contiguously globally, and robustly even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections we found that 12, 27 and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework will facilitate the global scaling of lake-research