The impact of tourism arrivals, tourism receipts and renewable energy consumption on quality of life : A panel study of Southern African region

Improving wellbeing and livelihoods exemplify the third Sustainable Development Goal. Literature related to the tourism-renewable energy-quality of life nexus is limited and lacks consensus. This study contributes to the debate and examines the influence of international tourism arrival (TA), real international tourism receipts (TR), and renewable energy consumption (REC) on quality of life (QoL) by using a panel of 8 Southern African countries spanning 1995–2017. The results found a significant positive and long-run relationship between TA, TR, and QoL. A significant negative effect was found between REC, trade openness (TO), and QoL while urbanization (Urb) had an insignificant negative impact on QoL. A unidirectional causal relationship was found running from QoL to TR and bidirectional causality between QoL and REC. Feedback causality was found between QoL and Urb and unidirectional causality from QoL to TO. The results imply that tourism is an effective economic tool for improving human development in Southern Africa.publishedVersio

A Hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-phGMDH Model to Forecast Crude Oil Price

Crude oil price fluctuations affect almost every individual and activity on the planet. Forecasting the crude oil price is therefore an important concern especially in economic policy and financial circles as it enables stakeholders estimate crude oil price at a point in time. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average has been an effective tool that has been used widely to model time series. Its limitation is the fact that it cannot model nonlinear systems sufficiently. This paper assesses the ability to build a robust forecasting model for the world crude oil price, Brent on the international market using a hybrid of two methods Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Polynomial Harmonic Group Method of Data Handling. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average methodology is used to model the time series component with constant variance whilst the Polynomial Harmonic Group Method of Data Handling is used to model the harmonic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model residuals. Keywords: Autocorrelation, Harmonics, Residuals JEL Classifications: C18, C45, C51, C63, C87, O13 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.798

Principal component analysis of socioeconomic factors and their association with malaria in children from the Ashanti Region, Ghana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The socioeconomic and sociodemographic situation are important components for the design and assessment of malaria control measures. In malaria endemic areas, however, valid classification of socioeconomic factors is difficult due to the lack of standardized tax and income data. The objective of this study was to quantify household socioeconomic levels using principal component analyses (PCA) to a set of indicator variables and to use a classification scheme for the multivariate analysis of children < 15 years of age presented with and without malaria to an outpatient department of a rural hospital.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In total, 1,496 children presenting to the hospital were examined for malaria parasites and interviewed with a standardized questionnaire. The information of eleven indicators of the family's housing situation was reduced by PCA to a socioeconomic score, which was then classified into three socioeconomic status (poor, average and rich). Their influence on the malaria occurrence was analysed together with malaria risk co-factors, such as sex, parent's educational and ethnic background, number of children living in a household, applied malaria protection measures, place of residence and age of the child and the mother.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that the proportion of children with malaria decreased with increasing socioeconomic status as classified by PCA (p < 0.05). Other independent factors for malaria risk were the use of malaria protection measures (p < 0.05), the place of residence (p < 0.05), and the age of the child (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The socioeconomic situation is significantly associated with malaria even in holoendemic rural areas where economic differences are not much pronounced. Valid classification of the socioeconomic level is crucial to be considered as confounder in intervention trials and in the planning of malaria control measures.</p

Systemic bacteraemia in children presenting with clinical pneumonia and the impact of non-typhoid salmonella (NTS).

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis and antimicrobial treatment of pneumonia in African children in the absence of diagnostic means such as x-ray facilities or microbiological laboratories relies primarily on clinical symptoms presented by the patients. In order to assess the spectrum of bacterial pathogens, blood cultures were performed in children fulfilling the clinical criteria of pneumonia. METHODS: In total, 1032 blood cultures were taken from children between 2 months and 5 years of age who were admitted to a rural hospital in Ghana between September 2007 and July 2009. Pneumonia was diagnosed clinically and according to WHO criteria classified as "non-severe pneumonia" and "severe pneumonia" ("severe pneumonia" includes the WHO categories "severe pneumonia" and "very severe pneumonia"). RESULTS: The proportion of bacteriaemia with non-typhoid salmonella (NTS) was similar in children with pneumonia (16/173, 9.2%) compared to children hospitalized for other reasons (112/859, 13%). NTS were the predominant organisms isolated from children with clinical pneumonia and significantly more frequent than Streptococcus pneumoniae (8/173, 4.6%). Nine percent (9/101) of children presenting with severe pneumonia and 10% (7/72) of children with non-severe pneumonia were infected with NTS. Nineteen out of 123 NTS isolates (15%) were susceptible to aminopenicillins (amoxycillin/ampicillin), 23/127 (18%) to chlorampenicol, and 23/98 (23%) to co-trimoxazole. All NTS isolates were sensitive to ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin. CONCLUSION: In Sub-saharan Africa, sepsis with NTS should be considered in children with symptoms of pneumonia and aminopenicillins might often not be the adequate drugs for treatment

Predictive Value of Fever and Palmar Pallor for P. falciparum Parasitaemia in Children from an Endemic Area

INTRODUCTION: Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. METHODS: In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD) of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. RESULTS: Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001) associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace presumptive treatment or laboratory diagnosis

Spatial Analysis of Land Cover Determinants of Malaria Incidence in the Ashanti Region, Ghana

Malaria belongs to the infectious diseases with the highest morbidity and mortality worldwide. As a vector-borne disease malaria distribution is strongly influenced by environmental factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between malaria risk and different land cover classes by using high-resolution multispectral Ikonos images and Poisson regression analyses. The association of malaria incidence with land cover around 12 villages in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, was assessed in 1,988 children <15 years of age. The median malaria incidence was 85.7 per 1,000 inhabitants and year (range 28.4–272.7). Swampy areas and banana/plantain production in the proximity of villages were strong predictors of a high malaria incidence. An increase of 10% of swampy area coverage in the 2 km radius around a village led to a 43% higher incidence (relative risk [RR] = 1.43, p<0.001). Each 10% increase of area with banana/plantain production around a village tripled the risk for malaria (RR = 3.25, p<0.001). An increase in forested area of 10% was associated with a 47% decrease of malaria incidence (RR = 0.53, p = 0.029)

Multicountry Distribution and Characterization of Extended-spectrum β-Lactamase-associated Gram-negative Bacteria From Bloodstream Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global health concern, yet, there are noticeable gaps in AMR surveillance data in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to measure the prevalence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) producing Gram-negative bacteria in bloodstream infections from 12 sentinel sites in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Data were generated during the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program (TSAP), in which standardized blood cultures were performed on febrile patients attending 12 health facilities in 9 sub-Saharan African countries between 2010 and 2014. Pathogenic bloodstream isolates were identified at the sites and then subsequently confirmed at a central reference laboratory. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, detection of ESBL production, and conventional multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for genes encoding for β-lactamase were performed on all pathogens. RESULTS: Five hundred and five pathogenic Gram-negative bloodstream isolates were isolated during the study period and available for further characterization. This included 423 Enterobacteriaceae. Phenotypically, 61 (12.1%) isolates exhibited ESBL activity, and genotypically, 47 (9.3%) yielded a PCR amplicon for at least one of the screened ESBL genes. Among specific Gram-negative isolates, 40 (45.5%) of 88 Klebsiella spp., 7 (5.7%) of 122 Escherichia coli, 6 (16.2%) of 37 Acinetobacter spp., and 2 (1.3%) of 159 of nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) showed phenotypic ESBL activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm the presence of ESBL production among pathogens causing bloodstream infections in sub-Saharan Africa. With few alternatives for managing ESBL-producing pathogens in the African setting, measures to control the development and proliferation of AMR organisms are urgently needed

The genomic epidemiology of multi-drug resistant invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella in selected sub-Saharan African countries

Funder: Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA)Funder: Government of Republic of KoreaFunder: US Centers for Disease Control and PreventionBackground: Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) is one of the leading causes of bacteraemia in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to provide a better understanding of the genetic characteristics and transmission patterns associated with multi-drug resistant (MDR) iNTS serovars across the continent. Methods: A total of 166 iNTS isolates collected from a multi-centre surveillance in 10 African countries (2010–2014) and a fever study in Ghana (2007–2009) were genome sequenced to investigate the geographical distribution, antimicrobial genetic determinants and population structure of iNTS serotypes–genotypes. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted in the context of the existing genomic frameworks for various iNTS serovars. Population-based incidence of MDR-iNTS disease was estimated in each study site. Results: Salmonella Typhimurium sequence-type (ST) 313 and Salmonella Enteritidis ST11 were predominant, and both exhibited high frequencies of MDR; Salmonella Dublin ST10 was identified in West Africa only. Mutations in the gyrA gene (fluoroquinolone resistance) were identified in S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium in Ghana; an ST313 isolate carrying blaCTX-M-15 was found in Kenya. International transmission of MDR ST313 (lineage II) and MDR ST11 (West African clade) was observed between Ghana and neighbouring West African countries. The incidence of MDR-iNTS disease exceeded 100/100 000 person-years-of-observation in children aged <5 years in several West African countries. Conclusions: We identified the circulation of multiple MDR iNTS serovar STs in the sampled sub-Saharan African countries. Investment in the development and deployment of iNTS vaccines coupled with intensified antimicrobial resistance surveillance are essential to limit the impact of these pathogens in Africa

The phylogeography and incidence of multi-drug resistant typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa.

There is paucity of data regarding the geographical distribution, incidence, and phylogenetics of multi-drug resistant (MDR) Salmonella Typhi in sub-Saharan Africa. Here we present a phylogenetic reconstruction of whole genome sequenced 249 contemporaneous S. Typhi isolated between 2008-2015 in 11 sub-Saharan African countries, in context of the 2,057 global S. Typhi genomic framework. Despite the broad genetic diversity, the majority of organisms (225/249; 90%) belong to only three genotypes, 4.3.1 (H58) (99/249; 40%), 3.1.1 (97/249; 39%), and 2.3.2 (29/249; 12%). Genotypes 4.3.1 and 3.1.1 are confined within East and West Africa, respectively. MDR phenotype is found in over 50% of organisms restricted within these dominant genotypes. High incidences of MDR S. Typhi are calculated in locations with a high burden of typhoid, specifically in children aged <15 years. Antimicrobial stewardship, MDR surveillance, and the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines will be critical for the control of MDR typhoid in Africa

Incidence of invasive salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a multicentre population-based surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Available incidence data for invasive salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. Standardised, multicountry data are required to better understand the nature and burden of disease in Africa. We aimed to measure the adjusted incidence estimates of typhoid fever and invasive non-typhoidal salmonella (iNTS) disease in sub-Saharan Africa, and the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of the causative agents. METHODS: We established a systematic, standardised surveillance of blood culture-based febrile illness in 13 African sentinel sites with previous reports of typhoid fever: Burkina Faso (two sites), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar (two sites), Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania (two sites). We used census data and health-care records to define study catchment areas and populations. Eligible participants were either inpatients or outpatients who resided within the catchment area and presented with tympanic (≥38·0°C) or axillary temperature (≥37·5°C). Inpatients with a reported history of fever for 72 h or longer were excluded. We also implemented a health-care utilisation survey in a sample of households randomly selected from each study area to investigate health-seeking behaviour in cases of self-reported fever lasting less than 3 days. Typhoid fever and iNTS disease incidences were corrected for health-care-seeking behaviour and recruitment. FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2010, and Jan 31, 2014, 135 Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and 94 iNTS isolates were cultured from the blood of 13 431 febrile patients. Salmonella spp accounted for 33% or more of all bacterial pathogens at nine sites. The adjusted incidence rate (AIR) of S Typhi per 100 000 person-years of observation ranged from 0 (95% CI 0-0) in Sudan to 383 (274-535) at one site in Burkina Faso; the AIR of iNTS ranged from 0 in Sudan, Ethiopia, Madagascar (Isotry site), and South Africa to 237 (178-316) at the second site in Burkina Faso. The AIR of iNTS and typhoid fever in individuals younger than 15 years old was typically higher than in those aged 15 years or older. Multidrug-resistant S Typhi was isolated in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania (both sites combined), and multidrug-resistant iNTS was isolated in Burkina Faso (both sites combined), Ghana, Kenya, and Guinea-Bissau. INTERPRETATION: Typhoid fever and iNTS disease are major causes of invasive bacterial febrile illness in the sampled locations, most commonly affecting children in both low and high population density settings. The development of iNTS vaccines and the introduction of S Typhi conjugate vaccines should be considered for high-incidence settings, such as those identified in this study. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation