A Decision-tree Approach to Seasonal Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation has long been a challenge especially for the East Asian Summer Monsoon region, where extreme rains are often disastrous for the human society and economy. This paper introduces a decision‐tree (DT) method for predicting extreme precipitation in the rainy season over South China in April–June (SC‐AMJ) and the North China Plain in July–August (NCP‐JA). A number of preceding climate indices are adopted as predictors. In both cases, the DT models involving ENSO and NAO indices exhibit the best performance with significant skills among those with other combinations of predictors and are superior to their linear counterpart, the binary logistic regression model. The physical mechanisms for the DT results are demonstrated by composite analyses of the same DT path samples. For SC‐AMJ, an extreme season can be determined mainly via two paths: the first follows a persistent negative NAO phase in February–March; the second goes with decaying El Niño. For NCP‐JA, an extreme season can also be traced via two paths: the first is featured by “non El Niño” and an extremely negative NAO phase in the preceding winter; the second follows a shift from El Niño in the preceding winter to La Niña in the early summer. Most of the mechanisms underlying the decision rules have been documented in previous studies, while some need further studies. The present results suggest that the decision‐tree approach takes advantage of discovering and incorporating various nonlinear relationships in the climate system, hence is of great potential for improving the prediction of seasonal extreme precipitation for given regions with increasing sample observations

Exact multilocal renormalization on the effective action : application to the random sine Gordon model statics and non-equilibrium dynamics

We extend the exact multilocal renormalization group (RG) method to study the flow of the effective action functional. This important physical quantity satisfies an exact RG equation which is then expanded in multilocal components. Integrating the nonlocal parts yields a closed exact RG equation for the local part, to a given order in the local part. The method is illustrated on the O(N) model by straightforwardly recovering the $\eta$ exponent and scaling functions. Then it is applied to study the glass phase of the Cardy-Ostlund, random phase sine Gordon model near the glass transition temperature. The static correlations and equilibrium dynamical exponent $z$ are recovered and several new results are obtained. The equilibrium two-point scaling functions are obtained. The nonequilibrium, finite momentum, two-time $t,t'$ response and correlations are computed. They are shown to exhibit scaling forms, characterized by novel exponents $\lambda_R \neq \lambda_C$, as well as universal scaling functions that we compute. The fluctuation dissipation ratio is found to be non trivial and of the form $X(q^z (t-t'), t/t')$. Analogies and differences with pure critical models are discussed.Comment: 33 pages, RevTe

Preparation and ferroelectric properties of (124)-oriented SrBi4Ti4O15 ferroelectric thin film on (110)-oriented LaNiO3 electrode

A (124)-oriented SrBi4Ti4O15 (SBTi) ferroelectric thin film with high volume fraction of {\alpha}SBTi(124)=97% was obtained using a metal organic decomposition process on SiO2/Si substrate coated by (110)-oriented LaNiO3 (LNO) thin film. The remanent polarization and coercive field for (124)-oriented SBTi film are 12.1 {\mu}C/cm2 and 74 kV/cm, respectively. No evident fatigue of (124)-oriented SBTi thin film can be observed after 1{\times}10e9 switching cycles. Besides, the (124)-oriented SBTi film can be uniformly polarized over large areas using a piezoelectric-mode atomic force microscope. Considering that the annealing temperature was 650{\deg}C and the thickness of each deposited layer was merely 30 nm, a long-range epitaxial relationship between SBTi(124) and LNO(110) facets was proposed. The epitaxial relationship was demonstrated based on the crystal structures of SBTi and LNO.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, published in Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics (JMSE), 19 (2008), 1031-103

Nonresonant Three-body Decays of D and B Mesons

Nonresonant three-body decays of D and B mesons are studied. It is pointed out that if heavy meson chiral perturbation theory (HMChPT) is applied to the heavy-light strong and weak vertices and assumed to be valid over the whole kinematic region, then the predicted decay rates for nonresonant charmless 3-body B decays will be too large and especially B^- --> pi^- K^+ K^- greatly exceeds the current experimental limit. This can be understood as chiral symmetry has been applied there twice beyond its region of validity. If HMChPT is applied only to the strong vertex and the weak transition is accounted for by the form factors, the dominant B^* pole contribution to the tree-dominated direct three-body B decays will become small and the branching ratio will be of order 10^{-6}. The decay modes B^- --> (K^- h^+ h^-)_{NR} and bar{B}^0 --> (bar{K}^0 h^+h^-)_{NR} for h = pi, K are penguin dominated. We apply HMChPT in two different cases to study the direct 3-body D decays and compare the results with experiment. Theoretical uncertainties are discussed.Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures. New experimental results of direct 3-body D decays as Reported at ICHEP2002 are included. To appear in Phys. Re

Al(OH)(3) facilitated synthesis of water-soluble, magnetic, radiolabelled and fluorescent hydroxyapatite nanoparticles

Magnetic and fluorescent hydroxyapatite nanoparticles were synthesised using Al(OH)3-stabilised MnFe2O4 or Fe3O4 nanoparticles as precursors. They were readily and efficiently radiolabelled with 18F. Bisphosphonate polyethylene glycol polymers were utilised to endow the nanoparticles with excellent colloidal stability in water and to incorporate cyclam for high affinity labelling with 64Cu

Insights into the electrochemical reduction products and processes in silica anodes for next-generation lithium-ion batteries

The use of silica as a lithium‐ion battery anode material requires a pretreatment step to induce electrochemical activity. The partially reversible electrochemical reduction reaction between silica and lithium has been postulated to produce silicon, which can subsequently reversibly react with lithium, providing stable capacities higher than graphite materials. Up to now, the electrochemical reduction pathway and the nature of the products were unknown, thereby hampering the design, optimization, and wider uptake of silica‐based anodes. Here, the electrochemical reduction pathway is uncovered and, for the first time, elemental silicon is identified as a reduction product. These insights, gleaned from analysis of the current response and capacity increase during reduction, conclusively demonstrated that silica must be reduced to introduce reversible capacity and the highest capacities of 600 mAh g−1 are achieved by using a constant load discharge at elevated temperature. Characterization via total scattering X‐ray pair distribution function analysis reveal the reduction products are amorphous in nature, highlighting the need for local structural methods to uncover vital information often inaccessible by traditional diffraction. These insights contribute toward understanding the electrochemical reduction of silica and can inform the development of pretreatment processes to enable their incorporation into next‐generation lithium‐ion batteries

Exclusive semileptonic rare decays B−>(B ->_ (K,K^*) \ell^+ \ell^- in supersymmetric theories

The invariant mass spectrum, forward-backward asymmetry, and lepton polarizations of the exclusive processes $B\to K(K^*)\ell^+ \ell^-, \ell=\mu, \tau$ are analyzed under supersymmetric context. Special attention is paid to the effects of neutral Higgs bosons (NHBs). Our analysis shows that the branching ratio of the process \bkm can be quite largely modified by the effects of neutral Higgs bosons and the forward-backward asymmetry would not vanish. For the process \bksm, the lepton transverse polarization is quite sensitive to the effects of NHBs, while the invariant mass spectrum, forward-backward asymmetry, and lepton longitudinal polarization are not. For both \bkt and \bkst, the effects of NHBs are quite significant. The partial decay widths of these processes are also analyzed, and our analysis manifest that even taking into account the theoretical uncertainties in calculating weak form factors, the effects of NHBs could make SUSY shown up.Comment: Several references are added, typo are correcte

Integrating fluctuations into distribution of resources in transportation networks

We propose a resource distribution strategy to reduce the average travel time in a transportation network given a fixed generation rate. Suppose that there are essential resources to avoid congestion in the network as well as some extra resources. The strategy distributes the essential resources by the average loads on the vertices and integrates the fluctuations of the instantaneous loads into the distribution of the extra resources. The fluctuations are calculated with the assumption of unlimited resources, where the calculation is incorporated into the calculation of the average loads without adding to the time complexity. Simulation results show that the fluctuation-integrated strategy provides shorter average travel time than a previous distribution strategy while keeping similar robustness. The strategy is especially beneficial when the extra resources are scarce and the network is heterogeneous and lowly loaded.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Evolution and Flare Activity of Delta-Sunspots in Cycle 23

The emergence and magnetic evolution of solar active regions (ARs) of beta-gamma-delta type, which are known to be highly flare-productive, were studied with the SOHO/MDI data in Cycle 23. We selected 31 ARs that can be observed from their birth phase, as unbiased samples for our study. From the analysis of the magnetic topology (twist and writhe), we obtained the following results. i) Emerging beta-gamma-delta ARs can be classified into three topological types as "quasi-beta", "writhed" and "top-to-top". ii) Among them, the "writhed" and "top-to-top" types tend to show high flare activity. iii) As the signs of twist and writhe agree with each other in most cases of the "writhed" type (12 cases out of 13), we propose a magnetic model in which the emerging flux regions in a beta-gamma-delta AR are not separated but united as a single structure below the solar surface. iv) Almost all the "writhed"-type ARs have downward knotted structures in the mid portion of the magnetic flux tube. This, we believe, is the essential property of beta-gamma-delta ARs. v) The flare activity of beta-gamma-delta ARs is highly correlated not only with the sunspot area but also with the magnetic complexity. vi) We suggest that there is a possible scaling-law between the flare index and the maximum umbral area

3D MHD Flux Emergence Experiments: Idealized models and coronal interactions

This paper reviews some of the many 3D numerical experiments of the emergence of magnetic fields from the solar interior and the subsequent interaction with the pre-existing coronal magnetic field. The models described here are idealized, in the sense that the internal energy equation only involves the adiabatic, Ohmic and viscous shock heating terms. However, provided the main aim is to investigate the dynamical evolution, this is adequate. Many interesting observational phenomena are explained by these models in a self-consistent manner.Comment: Review article, accepted for publication in Solar Physic