Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence

Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola.

As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy candidate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest that if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benefit of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts

Conservation must capitalise on climate’s moment

The health of the natural environment has never been a greater concern, but attention to biodiversity loss is being eclipsed by the climate crisis. We argue that conservationists must seize the agenda to put biodiversity at the heart of climate policy

Experimental investigation on the bond behavior of a compatible TRM-based solution for rammed earth heritage

Despite the current awareness of the high seismic risk of earthen structures, little has been done so far to develop proper strengthening solutions for the rammed earth heritage. Based on the effectiveness of TRM for masonry buildings, the strengthening of rammed earth walls with externally bonded fibers using earth-based mortar is being proposed as a compatible solution. In this context, the investigation of bond behavior was conducted by means of direct tensile tests, pull-out tests and single lap-shear tests. The specimens were prepared using earth-based mortars and two different types of meshes (glass and nylon) while considering different-bonded lengths. The direct tensile tests on TRM coupons showed the high capacity of the nylon mesh in transferring stresses after cracking of the mortar. The pull-out tests highlighted that in the case of glass fiber mesh, the bond was granted by friction, while the mechanical anchorage promoted by the transversal yarns granted the bond of the nylon mesh. Finally, the single lap-shear tests showed that the adopted earth-based mortar seems to limit the performance of the strengthening.This work was supported by the Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia [PTDC/ECM-EST/2777/2014, SFRH/BD/131006/2017, SFRH/BPD/97082/2013]

Greening Capitalism? A Marxist Critique of Carbon Markets

Climate change is increasingly being recognized as a serious threat to dominant modes of social organization, inspiring suggestions that capitalism itself needs to be transformed if we are to ‘decarbonize’ the global economy. Since the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, carbon markets have emerged as the main politico-economic tools in global efforts to address climate change. Newell and Paterson (2010) have recently claimed that the embrace of carbon markets by financial and political elites constitutes a possible first step towards the transformation of current modes of capitalist organization into a new form of greener, more sustainable ‘climate capitalism.’ In this paper, we argue that the institutionalization of carbon markets does not, in fact, represent a move towards the radical transformation of capitalism, but is better understood as the most recent expression of ongoing trends of ecological commodification and expropriation, driving familiar processes of uneven and crisis-prone development. In this paper, we review four critical Marxist concepts: metabolic rift (Foster, 1999), capitalism as world ecology (Moore, 2011a), uneven development and accumulation through dispossession (Harvey, 2003, 2006), and sub-imperialism (Marini, 1972, 1977), developing a framework for a Marxist analysis of carbon markets. Our analysis shows that carbon markets form part of a longer historical development of global capitalism and its relation to nature. Carbon markets, we argue, serve as creative new modes of accumulation, but are unlikely to transform capitalist dynamics in ways that might foster a more sustainable global economy. Our analysis also elucidates, in particular, the role that carbon markets play in exacerbating uneven development within the Global South, as elites in emerging economies leverage carbon market financing to pursue new strategies of sub-imperial expansion. </jats:p

“Without a mother”: caregivers and community members’ views about the impacts of maternal mortality on families in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality in South Africa is high and a cause for concern especially because the bulk of deaths from maternal causes are preventable. One of the proposed reasons for persistently high maternal mortality is HIV which causes death both indirectly and directly. While there is some evidence for the impact of maternal death on children and families in South Africa, few studies have explored the impacts of maternal mortality on the well-being of the surviving infants, older children and family. This study provides qualitative insight into the consequences of maternal mortality for child and family well-being throughout the life-course. METHODS: This qualitative study was conducted in rural and peri-urban communities in Vulindlela, KwaZulu-Natal. The sample included 22 families directly affected by maternal mortality, 15 community stakeholders and 7 community focus group discussions. These provided unique and diverse perspectives about the causes, experiences and impacts of maternal mortality. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Children left behind were primarily cared for by female family members, even where a father was alive and involved. The financial burden for care and children’s basic needs were largely met through government grants (direct and indirectly targeted at children) and/or through an obligation for the father or his family to assist. The repercussions of losing a mother were felt more by older children for whom it was harder for caregivers to provide educational supervision and emotional or psychological support. Respondents expressed concerns about adolescent’s educational attainment, general behaviour and particularly girl’s sexual risk. CONCLUSION: These results illuminate the high costs to surviving children and their families of failing to reduce maternal mortality in South Africa. Ensuring social protection and community support is important for remaining children and families. Additional qualitative evidence is needed to explore differential effects for children by gender and to guide future research and inform policies and programs aimed at supporting maternal orphans and other vulnerable children throughout their development.Web of Scienc

Direct Measurement of the Top Quark Mass at D0

We determine the top quark mass m_t using t-tbar pairs produced in the D0 detector by \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV p-pbar collisions in a 125 pb^-1 exposure at the Fermilab Tevatron. We make a two constraint fit to m_t in t-tbar -> b W^+bbar W^- final states with one W boson decaying to q-qbar and the other to e-nu or mu-nu. Likelihood fits to the data yield m_t(l+jets) = 173.3 +- 5.6 (stat) +- 5.5 (syst) GeV/c^2. When this result is combined with an analysis of events in which both W bosons decay into leptons, we obtain m_t = 172.1 +- 5.2 (stat) +- 4.9 (syst) GeV/c^2. An alternate analysis, using three constraint fits to fixed top quark masses, gives m_t(l+jets) = 176.0 +- 7.9 (stat) +- 4.8 (syst) GeV/C^2, consistent with the above result. Studies of kinematic distributions of the top quark candidates are also presented.Comment: 43 pages, 53 figures, 33 tables. RevTeX. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Measurement of the WW Boson Mass

A measurement of the mass of the $W$ boson is presented based on a sample of 5982 $W \rightarrow e \nu$ decays observed in $p\overline{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8~TeV with the D\O\ detector during the 1992--1993 run. From a fit to the transverse mass spectrum, combined with measurements of the $Z$ boson mass, the $W$ boson mass is measured to be $M_W = 80.350 \pm 0.140 (stat.) \pm 0.165 (syst.) \pm 0.160 (scale) GeV/c^2$.Comment: 12 pages, LaTex, style Revtex, including 3 postscript figures (submitted to PRL