Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Association Between Advanced Maternal Age and Maternal and Neonatal Morbidity: A Cross-Sectional Study on a Spanish Population

Background and objective: Over recent decades, a progressive increase in the maternal age at childbirth has been observed in developed countries, posing a health risk for both women and infants. The aim of this study was to analyze the association between advanced maternal age (AMA) and maternal and neonatal morbidity. Material and methods: A cross-sectional study of 3,315 births was conducted in the north of Spain in 2014. We compared childbirth between women aged 35 years or older, with a reference group of women aged between 24 and 27 years. AMA was categorized based on ordinal ranking into 35-38 years, 39-42 years, and >42 years to estimate a dose-response pattern (the older the age, the greater the risk). As an association measure, crude and adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) were estimated by non-conditional logistic regression and 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) were calculated. Results: Repeated abortions were more common among women of AMA in comparison to pregnant women aged 24-27 years (reference group): adjusted OR = 2.68; 95%CI (1.52-4.73). A higher prevalence of gestational diabetes was also observed among women of AMA, reaching statistical significance when restricted to first time mothers: adjusted OR = 8.55; 95%CI (1.12-65.43). In addition, the possibility of an instrumental delivery was multiplied by 1.6 and the possibility of a cesarean by 1.5 among women of AMA, with these results reaching statistical significance, and observing a dose-response pattern. Lastly, there were associations between preeclampsia, preterm birth (<37 weeks) and low birthweight, however without reaching statistical significance. Conclusion: Our results support the association between AMA and suffering repeated abortions. Likewise, being of AMA was associated with a greater risk of suffering from gestational diabetes, especially among primiparous women, as well as being associated with both instrumental deliveries and cesareans among both primiparous and multiparous women

Accuracy of point-of-care blood glucometers in neonates and critically Ill adults

[[abstract]]PURPOSE: Inpatient glycemic management has become a common issue because of the increasing number of hospitalized patients with hyperglycemia. Point-of-care devices can enable timely inpatient glucose monitoring, which may lead to better outcomes. The accuracy of point-of-care testing in various clinical scenarios has been questioned, particularly in neonates and critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the CONTOUR PLUS and CONTOUR PLUS ONE glucometers (new wireless systems that link to a smart mobile device) when used as point-of-care devices for blood glucose monitoring in neonates and critically ill adults in inpatient settings. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at a medical center in central Taiwan and enrolled patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit, sick child room, or respiratory intensive care unit between November 2020 and April 2021. Neonates with suspected infection or abnormal blood coagulation and adults who had abnormal blood coagulation, were pregnant, had received organ transplants, or had undergone massive blood transfusions were excluded. The accuracy of the glucometers was determined based on the following criteria of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standard: 15197:2013. FINDINGS: Overall, 114 neonates (mean age, 4.2 days [range, 0-28 days]; 65 boys [57.0%]) and 106 hospitalized critically ill adults (mean age, 68.2 years [range, 27-94 years]; 72 men [67.9%]) were enrolled in this study. The glucose values obtained with each glucometer had good precision, and all findings met the reference criteria of the within-lot results. All measurements of the neonates' venous blood by each glucometer met the accuracy criteria specified by ISO standard 15197:2013. Furthermore, 98.1% and 97.2% of the arterial blood glucose measurements for critically ill adults obtained with CONTOUR PLUS and CONTOUR PLUS ONE met the accuracy criteria, respectively. IMPLICATIONS: Both glucose management systems met the accuracy criteria for venous blood from neonates and arterial blood from critically ill adults. Thus, the use of these 2 point-of-care devices in inpatient settings, including for neonates and critically ill adults, can be recommended to minimize limitations associated with the clinical application of point-of-care testing in glucose management. The wireless connection may play a role in the subsequent development of institution-wide virtual glycemic management under the supervision of a team of endocrinologists

Trends in prevalence and incidence of diabetes mellitus from 2005 to 2014 in Taiwan

[[abstract]]BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and DM-related complications place a high socioeconomic burden on individuals and society. Updating nationwide information periodically is thus pivotal to preventing DM and improving its management in Taiwan. METHODS: We used the National Health Insurance Research Database; disease diagnosis codes were assigned according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification. DM was defined as >/=3 outpatient visits or 1 hospitalization within a year. We excluded individuals with gestational DM, those with missing data, and those aged >100 years. Type 1 DM (T1DM) was defined based on information from the catastrophic illness registry. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2014, total population with DM increased by 66% and age-standardized prevalence in patients aged 20-79 years increased by 41%. The DM prevalence was generally higher in men; however, the prevalence was higher in women aged >/=65 years. The prevalence of DM was approximately 50% in those aged >80 years. DM incidence increased by 19%; the increase was most obvious in patients aged 20-39 years (p < 0.001). The standardized incidence of T1DM slightly decreased by 11% (p = 0.118) and standardized prevalence of T1DM increased from 0.04% to 0.05%. Number of T1DM accounted for 0.51-0.59% of the entire diabetic population during the observation period. CONCLUSION: DM prevalence is continually increasing, but the incidence only marginally increased from 2005 to 2014. Moreover, DM is a major problem in elderly people. The higher incidence of DM in men is consistent with the pandemic of overweight and obesity in men in Taiwan

Impact of chronic hepatitis on cardiovascular events among type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan pay-for-performance program

[[abstract]]To investigate the impact of chronic hepatitis on cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This nationwide retrospective cohort study included 152,709 adult patients (> 20 years) with T2DM enrolled in the National Health Insurance Diabetes Pay-for-Performance Program from 2008 to 2010 and followed up until the end of 2017. Patients were categorized into groups with hepatitis B, hepatitis C, fatty liver disease, and patients without chronic hepatitis. The incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with T2DM and hepatitis C (79.9/1000 person-years) was higher than that in patients with diabetes combined with other chronic hepatitis, or without chronic hepatitis. After adjusting for confounding factors, T2DM with fatty liver (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13) and hepatitis C (adjusted HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03–1.12) demonstrated a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular events. The adjusted visit-to-visit coefficient of variation of HbA1c and fasting blood glucose were associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events (HRs of the highest quartile were 1.05 and 1.12, respectively). Chronic hepatitis affects cardiovascular events in adult patients with T2DM. Glucose variability could be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular events in such patients