Modelling and mapping regional-scale patterns of fishing impact and fish stocks to support coral-reef management in Micronesia

Aim: Use a fishery‐independent metric to model and map regional‐scale fishing impact, and demonstrate how this metric assists with modelling current and potential fish biomass to support coral‐reef management. We also examine the relative importance of anthropogenic and natural factors on fishes at biogeographical scales. Location: Reefs of five jurisdictions in Micronesia. Methods: A subset of 1,127 fish surveys (470 surveys) was used to calculate site‐specific mean parrotfish lengths (a proxy for cumulative fishing impact), which were modelled against 20 biophysical and anthropogenic variables. The resulting model was extrapolated to each 1 ha reef cell in the region to generate a fishing impact map. The remaining data (657 surveys) were then used to model fish biomass using 15 response variables, including fishing impact. This model was used to map estimated current regional fish standing stocks and, by setting fishing impact to 0, potential standing stocks. Results: Human population pressure and distance to port were key anthropogenic variables predicting fishing impact. Total fish biomass was negatively correlated with fishing, but the influence of natural gradients of primary productivity, sea surface temperature, habitat quality and larval supply was regionally more important. Main conclusions: Mean parrotfish length appears to be a useful fishery‐independent metric for modelling Pacific fishing impact, but considering environmental covariates is critical. Explicitly modelling fishing impact has multiple benefits, including generation of the first large‐scale map of tropical fishing impacts that can inform conservation planning. Using fishing impact data to map current and potential fish stocks provides further benefits, including highlighting the relative importance of fishing on fish biomass and identifying key biophysical variables that cause maximum potential biomass to vary significantly across the region. Regional‐scale maps of fishing, fish standing stocks and the potential benefits of protection are likely to lead to improved conservation outcomes during reserve network planning

The Expected Impacts of Climate Change on the Ocean Economy

The ocean is critically important to our global economy. Collectively, it is estimated that ocean-based industries and activities contribute hundreds of millions of jobs and approximately US $2.5 trillion to the global economy each year, making it the world’s seventh-largest economy when compared with national gross domestic products. In addition, the nonmarket services and benefts provided by the global ocean are signifcant and may in fact far exceed the value added by market-based goods and services. • Climate change is altering ocean climate, chemistry, circulation, sea level and ice distribution. Collectively, these system changes have critical impacts on the habitats, biological productivities and species assemblages that underpin many of the economic benefts of the sea. • Swift efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are needed to maintain a robust ocean economy. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimates that climate-induced declines in ocean health will cost the global economy$428 billion/year by 2050 and $1.98 trillion/year by 2100. • Climate change is reducing the productivities and changing the spatial distributions of economically important marine species and their habitats. All countries stand to gain signifcant benefts relative to a business-as-usual trajectory by implementing climate-adaptive fsheries management reforms that address both changes in species’ distributions and productivities due to climate change. Many countries could maintain or improve profts and catches into the future with effective adaptation. • The potential of marine aquaculture (mariculture) is likely to remain high under climate change and, with careful planning, mariculture could offset losses in food and income from capture fsheries in those countries that will experience losses in that sector. Expanding the potential for marine aquaculture will require enhancing technical capac�ities, defning best practices, easing undue regulatory bur�dens, increasing access to credit and insurance, breeding stocks for faster growth and improving feed technology. • The combined effects of ocean warming and acidifcation result in predictions of negative impacts on coral reef cover and tourism values for all countries, with magnitudes dependent on the strength of climate change. For a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), coral cover is expected to decline by 72–87%, causing on-reef tourism values to decrease by over 90% in 2100. • Climate change impacts will differ by country and sector and solutions must be context-specifc. By exploring climate change impacts at the country level for fsheries, aquaculture and reef tourism, countries can assess what they stand to gain or lose due to climate change and understand how they might capitalise on these predictions to inform their investments and actions. • Implementing certain key strategies will help build socio�ecological resilience to climate change and ensure the continued, or improved, provision of functions and ser�vices from the ocean, especially for the most vulnerable coastal nations. These strategies include the following: – A focus on equity. Climate change is likely to cause and exacerbate global inequities, reducing resilience and thereby likely worsening outcomes under all climate change scenarios. It will thus be profoundly important to examine the equity implications of all new and existing management decisions across all three sectors. Looking forward. The future of the ocean economy is expected to drastically change given climate change, and the nature and magnitude of these changes can be highly variable. Each of these three sectors will need to work to understand risks and anticipate changes, and build precautionary and adaptive strategies into their management decisions. – Co-operating across boundaries. As suitable habitats shift and change, marine species will move across jurisdictional boundaries and regional, national and international cooperative agreements will be necessary to ensure that these species are well-managed, and that the benefts are fairly distributed during and after the transitions

Crustose Coralline Algae and a Cnidarian Neuropeptide Trigger Larval Settlement in Two Coral Reef Sponges

In sessile marine invertebrates, larval settlement is fundamental to population maintenance and persistence. Cues contributing to the settlement choices and metamorphosis of larvae have important implications for the success of individuals and populations, but cues mediating larval settlement for many marine invertebrates are largely unknown. This study assessed larval settlement in two common Great Barrier Reef sponges, Coscinoderma matthewsi and Rhopaloeides odorabile, to cues that enhance settlement and metamorphosis in various species of scleractinian coral larvae. Methanol extracts of the crustose coralline algae (CCA), Porolithon onkodes, corresponding to a range of concentrations, were used to determine the settlement responses of sponge larvae. Cnidarian neuropeptides (GLW-amide neuropeptides) were also tested as a settlement cue. Settlement in both sponge species was approximately two-fold higher in response to live chips of CCA and optimum concentrations of CCA extract compared to 0.2 µm filtered sea water controls. Metamorphosis also increased when larvae were exposed to GLW-amide neuropeptides; R. odorabile mean metamorphosis reached 42.0±5.8% compared to 16.0±2.4% in seawater controls and in C. matthewsi mean metamorphosis reached 68.3±5.4% compared to 36.7±3.3% in seawater controls. These results demonstrate the contributing role chemosensory communication plays in the ability of sponge larvae to identify suitable habitat for successful recruitment. It also raises the possibility that larvae from distinct phyla may share signal transduction pathways involved in metamorphosis

Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios

BACKGROUND: Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the "committed warming" for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p> or =0.2 year(-1)) thermal stress by 2080. An additional "societal" warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO(2) stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5 degrees C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50-80 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results suggest that adaptation -- via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions -- could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the world's coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal stress events

27 years of benthic and coral community dynamics on turbid, highly urbanised reefs off Singapore

Coral cover on reefs is declining globally due to coastal development, overfishing and climate change. Reefs isolated from direct human influence can recover from natural acute disturbances, but little is known about long term recovery of reefs experiencing chronic human disturbances. Here we investigate responses to acute bleaching disturbances on turbid reefs off Singapore, at two depths over a period of 27 years. Coral cover declined and there were marked changes in coral and benthic community structure during the first decade of monitoring at both depths. At shallower reef crest sites (3–4 m), benthic community structure recovered towards pre-disturbance states within a decade. In contrast, there was a net decline in coral cover and continuing shifts in community structure at deeper reef slope sites (6–7 m). There was no evidence of phase shifts to macroalgal dominance but coral habitats at deeper sites were replaced by unstable substrata such as fine sediments and rubble. The persistence of coral dominance at chronically disturbed shallow sites is likely due to an abundance of coral taxa which are tolerant to environmental stress. In addition, high turbidity may interact antagonistically with other disturbances to reduce the impact of thermal stress and limit macroalgal growth rates

Doom and Boom on a Resilient Reef: Climate Change, Algal Overgrowth and Coral Recovery

Background: Coral reefs around the world are experiencing large-scale degradation, largely due to global climate change, overfishing, diseases and eutrophication. Climate change models suggest increasing frequency and severity of warming-induced coral bleaching events, with consequent increases in coral mortality and algal overgrowth. Critically, the recovery of damaged reefs will depend on the reversibility of seaweed blooms, generally considered to depend on grazing of the seaweed, and replenishment of corals by larvae that successfully recruit to damaged reefs. These processes usually take years to decades to bring a reef back to coral dominance

Water Quality and Herbivory Interactively Drive Coral-Reef Recovery Patterns in American Samoa

BACKGROUND: Compared with a wealth of information regarding coral-reef recovery patterns following major disturbances, less insight exists to explain the cause(s) of spatial variation in the recovery process. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study quantifies the influence of herbivory and water quality upon coral reef assemblages through space and time in Tutuila, American Samoa, a Pacific high island. Widespread declines in dominant corals (Acropora and Montipora) resulted from cyclone Heta at the end of 2003, shortly after the study began. Four sites that initially had similar coral reef assemblages but differential temporal dynamics four years following the disturbance event were classified by standardized measures of 'recovery status', defined by rates of change in ecological measures that are known to be sensitive to localized stressors. Status was best predicted, interactively, by water quality and herbivory. Expanding upon temporal trends, this study examined if similar dependencies existed through space; building multiple regression models to identify linkages between similar status measures and local stressors for 17 localities around Tutuila. The results highlighted consistent, interactive interdependencies for coral reef assemblages residing upon two unique geological reef types. Finally, the predictive regression models produced at the island scale were graphically interpreted with respect to hypothesized site-specific recovery thresholds. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Cumulatively, our study purports that moving away from describing relatively well-known patterns behind recovery, and focusing upon understanding causes, improves our foundation to predict future ecological dynamics, and thus improves coral reef management

Simple rules can guide whether land or ocean based conservation will best benefit marine ecosystems

Coastal marine ecosystems can be managed by actions undertaken both on the land and in the ocean. Quantifying and comparing the costs and benefits of actions in both realms is therefore necessary for efficient management. Here, we quantify the link between terrestrial sediment run-off and a downstream coastal marine ecosystem, and contrast the cost-effectiveness of marine and land-based conservation actions. We use a dynamic land- and sea-scape model to determine whether limited funds should be directed to one of four alternative conservation actions – protection on land, protection in the ocean, restoration on land, or restoration in the ocean – to maximise the extent of light-dependent marine benthic habitats, across decadal time-scales. We apply the model to a case study seagrass meadow in Australia. We find that marine restoration is the most cost-effective action over decadal time-scales in this system, based on a conservative estimate of the rate at which seagrass can expand into new habitat. The optimal decision will vary in different social-ecological contexts, but some basic information can guide optimal investments to counteract land and ocean based stressors: (1) marine restoration should be prioritised if the rates of marine ecosystem decline and expansion are similar and low; (2) marine protection should take precedence if the rate of marine ecosystem decline is high, or if the adjacent catchment is relatively intact and has a low rate of vegetation decline; (3) land-based actions are optimal when the ratio of marine ecosystem expansion to decline is >1.4, with terrestrial restoration typically the most cost effective; and (4) land protection should be prioritised if the catchment is relatively intact, but the rate of vegetation decline is high. These rules-of-thumb illustrate how cost-effective conservation outcomes for connected land-ocean systems can proceed without complex modelling

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats

Projecting of wave height and water level on reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and sea level rise (SLR) cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater, reducing the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change in the risk to coastal reefs under conditions of intensified TCs and SLR are poorly quantified. In this study we projected the wave height and water level on Melekeok reef in the Palau Islands by 2100, based on wave simulations under intensified TCs (significant wave height at the outer ocean: SWHo = 8.7–11.0 m; significant wave period at the outer ocean: SWPo = 13–15 s) and SLR (0.24–0.98 m). To understand effects of upward reef growth on the reduction of the wave height and water level, the simulation was conducted for two reef condition scenarios: a degraded reef and a healthy reef. Moreover, analyses of reef growth based on a drilled core provided an assessment of the coral community and rate of reef production necessary to reduce the risk from TCs and SLR on the coastal areas. According to our calculations under intensified TCs and SLR by 2100, significant wave heights at the reef flat (SWHr) will increase from 1.05–1.24 m at present to 2.14 m if reefs are degraded. Similarly, by 2100 the water level at the shoreline (WLs) will increase from 0.86–2.10 m at present to 1.19–3.45 m if reefs are degraded. These predicted changes will probably cause beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure, because the coastal village is located at  ∼ 3 m above the present mean sea level. These findings imply that even if the SWHr is decreased by only 0.1 m by upward reef growth, it will probably reduce the risks of costal damages. Our results showed that a healthy reef will reduce a maximum of 0.44 m of the SWHr. According to analysis of drilled core, corymbose Acropora corals will be key to reducing the risks, and 2.6–5.8 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1, equivalent to  > 8 % of coral cover, will be required to keep a healthy reef by 2100. This study highlights that the maintaining reef growth (as a function of coral cover) in the future is effective in reducing the risk of coastal damage arising from wave action. Although the present study focuses on Melekeok fringing reef, many coral reefs are in the same situation under conditions of intensified TCs and SLR, and therefore the results of this study are applicable to other reefs. These researches are critical in guiding policy development directed at disaster prevention for small island nations and for developing and developed countries