73 research outputs found
Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models
We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the
northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the
XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the
IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of
the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the
variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two
high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in
most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most
GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling
baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are
usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global
weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of
similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the
atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be
critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is
biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs.
This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the
presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale
atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective
of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table
Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets
Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth
climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn,
enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical
insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the
oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may
also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The
critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain
because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot
account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing
features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that
the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m, significantly
higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify
the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and
extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that
clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However,
subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a
stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit
to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of
wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry
enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has
strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the
habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013.
Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio
Rupture of Hepatocellular Carcinoma into the Biliary System with Resulting Bile Duct Thrombi: Report of Two Cases
We report two cases of hepatocellular carcinoma revealed by jaundice and the presence of free-floating tumoural fragments within the biliary system. Two men (one of 64 and one of 73) presented with isolated jaundice. The results from ultrasound, CT and MRI were suggestive of a cholangiocarcinoma. Surgical intervention demonstrated bile duct thrombi from the primary tumour causing obstructive jaundice
Is the astronomical forcing a reliable and unique pacemaker for climate? A conceptual model study
There is evidence that ice age cycles are paced by astronomical forcing,
suggesting some kind of synchronisation phenomenon. Here, we identify the type
of such synchronisation and explore systematically its uniqueness and
robustness using a simple paleoclimate model akin to the van der Pol relaxation
oscillator and dynamical system theory. As the insolation is quite a complex
quasiperiodic signal involving different frequencies, the traditional concepts
used to define synchronisation to periodic forcing are no longer applicable.
Instead, we explore a different concept of generalised synchronisation in terms
of (coexisting) synchronised solutions for the forced system, their basins of
attraction and instabilities. We propose a clustering technique to compute the
number of synchronised solutions, each of which corresponds to a different
paleoclimate history. In this way, we uncover multistable synchronisation
(reminiscent of phase- or frequency-locking to individual periodic components
of astronomical forcing) at low forcing strength, and monostable or unique
synchronisation at stronger forcing. In the multistable regime, different
initial conditions may lead to different paleoclimate histories. To study their
robustness, we analyse Lyapunov exponents that quantify the rate of convergence
towards each synchronised solution (local stability), and basins of attraction
that indicate critical levels of external perturbations (global stability). We
find that even though synchronised solutions are stable on a long term, there
exist short episodes of desynchronisation where nearby climate trajectories
diverge temporarily (for about 50 kyr). (...)Comment: 22 pages, 18 figure
On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles
Global and local feedback analysis techniques have been applied to two ensembles of mixed layer equilibrium CO 2 doubling climate change experiments, from the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) and QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) projects. Neither of these new ensembles shows evidence of a statistically significant change in the ensemble mean or variance in global mean climate sensitivity when compared with the results from the mixed layer models quoted in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Global mean feedback analysis of these two ensembles confirms the large contribution made by inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks to those in climate sensitivity in earlier studies; net cloud feedbacks are responsible for 66% of the inter-model variance in the total feedback in the CFMIP ensemble and 85% in the QUMP ensemble. The ensemble mean global feedback components are all statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles, except for the clear-sky shortwave feedback which is stronger in the CFMIP ensemble. While ensemble variances of the shortwave cloud feedback and both clear-sky feedback terms are larger in CFMIP, there is considerable overlap in the cloud feedback ranges; QUMP spans 80% or more of the CFMIP ranges in longwave and shortwave cloud feedback. We introduce a local cloud feedback classification system which distinguishes different types of cloud feedbacks on the basis of the relative strengths of their longwave and shortwave components, and interpret these in terms of responses of different cloud types diagnosed by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project simulator. In the CFMIP ensemble, areas where low-top cloud changes constitute the largest cloud response are responsible for 59% of the contribution from cloud feedback to the variance in the total feedback. A similar figure is found for the QUMP ensemble. Areas of positive low cloud feedback (associated with reductions in low level cloud amount) contribute most to this figure in the CFMIP ensemble, while areas of negative cloud feedback (associated with increases in low level cloud amount and optical thickness) contribute most in QUMP. Classes associated with high-top cloud feedbacks are responsible for 33 and 20% of the cloud feedback contribution in CFMIP and QUMP, respectively, while classes where no particular cloud type stands out are responsible for 8 and 21%.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45863/1/382_2006_Article_111.pd
Cloud processes associated with past and future climate changes
International audienc
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