17,100 research outputs found
Efficient data augmentation for fitting stochastic epidemic models to prevalence data
Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease
spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed
at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time
evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in
which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size
increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible
for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov
chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic
epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with
subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new
subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogeneous
continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories
of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied, with minimal
modifications, to a broad class of stochastic epidemic models. We present our
algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the
data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data
from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school
High energy scattering in the saturation regime including running coupling and rare fluctuation effects
The analytic result for the -matrix in the saturation regime including the
running coupling is obtained. To get this result we solve the Balitsky and
Kovchegov-Weigert evolution equations in the saturation regime, which include
running coupling corrections. We study also the effect of rare fluctuations on
top of the running coupling. We find that the rare fluctuations are less
important in the running coupling case as compared to the fixed coupling case.Comment: 10 page
Gear optimization
The use of formal numerical optimization methods for the design of gears is investigated. To achieve this, computer codes were developed for the analysis of spur gears and spiral bevel gears. These codes calculate the life, dynamic load, bending strength, surface durability, gear weight and size, and various geometric parameters. It is necessary to calculate all such important responses because they all represent competing requirements in the design process. The codes developed here were written in subroutine form and coupled to the COPES/ADS general purpose optimization program. This code allows the user to define the optimization problem at the time of program execution. Typical design variables include face width, number of teeth and diametral pitch. The user is free to choose any calculated response as the design objective to minimize or maximize and may impose lower and upper bounds on any calculated responses. Typical examples include life maximization with limits on dynamic load, stress, weight, etc. or minimization of weight subject to limits on life, dynamic load, etc. The research codes were written in modular form for easy expansion and so that they could be combined to create a multiple reduction optimization capability in future
Ballistic electronic transport in Quantum Cables
We studied theoretically ballistic electronic transport in a proposed
mesoscopic structure - Quantum Cable. Our results demonstrated that Qauntum
Cable is a unique structure for the study of mesoscopic transport. As a
function of Fermi energy, Ballistic conductance exhibits interesting stepwise
features. Besides the steps of one or two quantum conductance units (),
conductance plateaus of more than two quantum conductance units can also be
expected due to the accidental degeneracies (crossings) of subbands. As
structure parameters is varied, conductance width displays oscillatory
properties arising from the inhomogeneous variation of energy difference
betweeen adjoining transverse subbands. In the weak coupling limits,
conductance steps of height becomes the first and second plateaus for
the Quantum Cable of two cylinder wires with the same width.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure
Eulerian and modified Lagrangian approaches to multi-dimensional condensation and collection
Turbulence is argued to play a crucial role in cloud droplet growth. The
combined problem of turbulence and cloud droplet growth is numerically
challenging. Here, an Eulerian scheme based on the Smoluchowski equation is
compared with two Lagrangian superparticle (or su- perdroplet) schemes in the
presence of condensation and collection. The growth processes are studied
either separately or in combination using either two-dimensional turbulence, a
steady flow, or just gravitational acceleration without gas flow. Good
agreement between the differ- ent schemes for the time evolution of the size
spectra is observed in the presence of gravity or turbulence. Higher moments of
the size spectra are found to be a useful tool to characterize the growth of
the largest drops through collection. Remarkably, the tails of the size spectra
are reasonably well described by a gamma distribution in cases with gravity or
turbulence. The Lagrangian schemes are generally found to be superior over the
Eulerian one in terms of computational performance. However, it is shown that
the use of interpolation schemes such as the cloud-in-cell algorithm is
detrimental in connection with superparticle or superdroplet approaches.
Furthermore, the use of symmetric over asymmetric collection schemes is shown
to reduce the amount of scatter in the results.Comment: 36 pages, 17 figure
Internal magnetic fields in thin ZnSe epilayers
Strain induced spin-splitting is observed and characterized using pump-probe
Kerr rotation spectroscopy in n-ZnSe epilayers grown on GaAs substrates. The
spin-splitting energies are mapped out as a function of pump-probe separation,
applied voltage, and temperature in a series of samples of varying epilayer
thicknesses and compressive strain arising from epilayer-substrate lattice
mismatch. The strain is independently quantified using photoluminescence and
x-ray diffraction measurements. We observe that the magnitude of the spin
splitting increases with applied voltage and temperature, and is highly crystal
direction dependent, vanishing along [1 1-bar 0].Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure
Diffractive lens fabricated with binary features less than 60 nm
We designed, fabricated, and characterized a binary diffractive lens with features less than 60nm. The lens was designed for operation in the red portion of the spectrum. Experimental measurements of lens performance agree with predictions generated by rigorous models of diffraction
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