Equivalency of risk for a modified health endpoint: a case from recreational water epidemiology studies

BACKGROUND: The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and its predecessors have conducted three distinct series of epidemiological studies beginning in 1948 on the relationship between bathing water quality and swimmers’ illnesses. Keeping pace with advances in microbial technologies, these studies differed in their respective microbial indicators of water quality. Another difference, however, has been their specific health endpoints. The latest round of studies, the National Epidemiological Assessment of Recreational (NEEAR) Water studies initiated in 2002, used a case definition, termed “NEEAR GI illness” (NGI), for gastrointestinal illness corresponding closely to classifications employed by contemporary researchers, and to that proposed by the World Health Organization. NGI differed from the previous definition of “highly credible gastrointestinal illness” (HCGI) upon which the USEPA’s 1986 bathing water criteria had been based, primarily by excluding fever as a prerequisite. METHODS: Incidence of NGI from the NEEAR studies was compared to that of HCGI from earlier studies. Markov chain Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the respective beta binomial probability densities for NGI and HCGI establish credible intervals for the risk ratio of NGI to HCGI. RESULTS: The ratio of NGI risk to that of HCGI is estimated to be 4.5 with a credible interval 3.2 to 7.7. CONCLUSIONS: A risk level of 8 HCGI illnesses per 1000 swimmers, as in the 1986 freshwater criteria, would correspond to 36 NGI illnesses per 1000 swimmers. Given a microbial DNA-based (qPCR) water quality vs. risk relationship developed from the NEEAR studies, 36 NGI per 1000 corresponds to a geometric mean of 475 qPCR cell-equivalents per 100 ml

Phase 2 of the Multiple Provider Employment Zones Qualitative Study, DWP Research Report 399

This report presents the findings of a qualitative study of the operation and impact of the Multiple Provider Employment Zone (MPEZ) initiatives that have operated in four cities (London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Glasgow) since 20041. The study builds on earlier work by Cambridge Policy Consultants (Hirst et al. 2006), which concentrated on issues related to the early establishment of the MPEZ initiative and the initial experiences of Providers, Jobcentre Plus districts and customers. The Phase 2 research took place approximately one year on from the Phase 1 study and focused on tracking developments in the operation of MPEZ as the initiative became more established. The study involved interviews with EZ Providers (managers and Advisers), Jobcentre Plus representatives (managers and Advisers) and customers (young people (aged 18-24) claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), who would otherwise have returned to New Deal for Young People (NDYP)2, lone parents receiving Income Support and early entrants – see section 1.6 for full details). In order to gain a wider perspective, researchers also spoke to representatives of organisations that have employed MPEZ participants and a number of stakeholder organisations with a broad interest in local labour market policies and programmes in the MPEZ areas. In total, the research involved interviews or group discussions with over 300 individuals, providing a range and depth of qualitative information that allows a detailed picture to be established of the way that MPEZs developed between mid- 2005 and mid-2006, including the experiences of employers and the labour market destinations of MPEZ participants. A central issue addressed in the research and in this report is the ‘multiple’ element of the initiative and the value that is added through the existence of more than one Provider in each MPEZ area. Questions of allocation, choice, specialisation, competition and innovation are considered from the perspectives of Providers, Jobcentre Plus, customers, employers and stakeholders and the final sections present some conclusions and issues for consideration in relation to these topics

Social marketing and healthy eating : Findings from young people in Greece

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12208-013-0112-xGreece has high rates of obesity and non-communicable diseases owing to poor dietary choices. This research provides lessons for social marketing to tackle the severe nutrition-related problems in this country by obtaining insight into the eating behaviour of young adults aged 18–23. Also, the main behavioural theories used to inform the research are critically discussed. The research was conducted in Athens. Nine focus groups with young adults from eight educational institutions were conducted and fifty-nine participants’ views towards eating habits, healthy eating and the factors that affect their food choices were explored. The study found that the participants adopted unhealthier nutritional habits after enrolment. Motivations for healthy eating were good health, appearance and psychological consequences, while barriers included lack of time, fast-food availability and taste, peer pressure, lack of knowledge and lack of family support. Participants reported lack of supportive environments when deciding on food choices. Based on the findings, recommendations about the development of the basic 4Ps of the marketing mix, as well as of a fifth P, for Policy are proposedPeer reviewe

How and When Socially Entrepreneurial Nonprofit Organizations Benefit From Adopting Social Alliance Management Routines to Manage Social Alliances?

Social alliance is defined as the collaboration between for-profit and nonprofit organizations. Building on the insights derived from the resource-based theory, we develop a conceptual framework to explain how socially entrepreneurial nonprofit organizations (SENPOs) can improve their social alliance performance by adopting strategic alliance management routines. We test our framework using the data collected from 203 UK-based SENPOs in the context of cause-related marketing campaign-derived social alliances. Our results confirm a positive relationship between social alliance management routines and social alliance performance. We also find that relational mechanisms, such as mutual trust, relational embeddedness, and relational commitment, mediate the relationship between social alliance management routines and social alliance performance. Moreover, our findings suggest that different types of social alliance motivation can influence the impact of social alliance management routines on different types of the relational mechanisms. In general, we demonstrate that SENPOs can benefit from adopting social alliance management routines and, in addition, highlight how and when the social alliance management routines–social alliance performance relationship might be shaped. Our study offers important academic and managerial implications, and points out future research directions

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

The ‘brand’ of the Catholic Church in England and Wales: challenges and opportunities for communications

This paper considers the concept of ‘brand’ in relation to religious organisations and, in particular, the Catholic Church in England and Wales. It explores the application of marketing and branding concepts to the Church and reports on perceptions of the Church’s brand and identity. The findings show that the Catholic Church in England and Wales has very strong brand equity and high levels of brand loyalty among its members, although conventional marketing language should be avoided due to the sensitivities involved. The findings suggest that the Church could usefully be regarded as a ‘brand community’, akin in many key respects to brand communities in the commercial sphere. It recommends that Church communications could be enhanced by leveraging the brand more effectively as within a true ‘brand community’ for the purpose of encouraging brand loyalty and energising Church members

Terrestrial implications for the maritime geoarchaeological resource: A view from the Lower Palaeolithic

Stone tools and faunal remains have been recovered from the English Channel and the North Sea through trawling, dredging for aggregates, channel clearance, and coring. These finds highlight the potential for a maritime Lower Palaeolithic archaeological resource. It is proposed here that any Lower Palaeolithic artefacts, faunal remains, and sediments deposited in the maritime zone during dry, low-stand phases were once (and may still be) contextually similar to their counterparts in the terrestrial Lower Palaeolithic records of north-western Europe. Given these similarities, can interpretive models and analytical frameworks developed for terrestrial archaeology be profitably applied to an assessment of the potential value of any maritime resource? The terrestrial geoarchaeological resource for the Lower Palaeolithic is dominated by artefacts and ecofacts that have been fluvially reworked. The spatio-temporal resolution of these data varies from entire river valleys and marine isotope stages to river channel gravel bar surfaces and decadal timescales, thus supporting a variety of questions and approaches. However, the structure of the terrestrial resource also highlights two fundamental limitations in current maritime knowledge that can restrict the application of terrestrial approaches to any potential maritime resource: (i) how have the repetitive transgressions and regressions of the Middle and Late Pleistocene modified the terrace landforms and sediments associated with the river systems of the English Channel and southern North Sea basins?; and (ii) do the surviving submerged terrace landforms and fluvial sedimentary deposits support robust geochronological models, as is the case with the classical terrestrial terrace sequences? This paper highlights potential approaches to these questions, and concludes that the fluvial palaeogeography, Pleistocene fossils, and potential Lower Palaeolithic artefacts of the maritime geoarchaeological resource can be profitably investigated in future as derived, low-resolution data sets, facilitating questions of colonisation, occupation, demography, and material culture

A cross-national examination of motivation to volunteer: religious context, national value patterns, and nonprofit regimes

Although motivation to volunteer (MTV) is one of the most frequently researched topics in the field of volunteering research, few studies have compared and explained MTV cross-nationally. Using data from the 1990 World Values Surveys, this study examines if and how specific societal characteristics are asso-ciated with self-reported motivations to volunteer, focusing on national religious context, dominant value patterns, and institutional variations in terms of welfare state regimes and characteristics of the nonprofit sector. Across all countries stud-ied, people who volunteered expressed both altruistic and self-oriented motiva-tions, but we observed important cross-national variations in the emphasis put on both motivational dimensions. Besides the influence of individual-level character-istics, we found partial evidence for a contextual understanding of motivation to volunteer. With respect to religion, we expected a beneficial relationship with al-truistic motivations. While such a positive relationship was found at the individual level, the evidence for a religious national context was ambiguous: on the one hand, no relationship was found between extensive religious networks and support for altruistic motivations; on the other, strong religious beliefs among the general population were negatively associated with both altruistic and self-interested MTV. The prevalence of a post-material value pattern did not represent a threat to feelings of altruism, and produced mixed findings concerning self-interested MTV. Finally, welfare states with lower social spending, a large nonprofit sector with little revenue from government, and an active citizenry, in terms of a high rate of volunteering, stimulated the expression of altruistic motivations

Boundary Conditions for Elastohydrodynamics of Circular Point Contacts

The paper presents the solution of an elastohydrodynamic point contact condition using inlet and outlet lubricant entrainment with partial counter-flow. The inlet and outlet boundaries are determined using potential flow analysis for the pure rolling of contiguous surfaces. This shows that Swift–Stieber boundary conditions best conform to the observed partial counter-flow at the inlet conjunction, satisfying the compatibility condition. For the outlet region, the same is true when Prandtl–Hopkins boundary conditions are employed. Using these boundary conditions, the predictions conform closely to the measured pressure distribution using a deposited pressure-sensitive micro-transducer in a ball-to-flat race contact. Furthermore, the predicted conjunctional shape closely conforms to the often observed characteristic keyhole conjunction through optical interferometry. The combined numerical–experimental analysis with realistic boundary conditions described here has not hitherto been reported in the literature