Hearing hooves, thinking zebras: A review of the inverse base-rate effect

People often fail to use base-rate information appropriately in decision-making. This is evident in the inverse base-rate effect, a phenomenon in which people tend to predict a rare outcome for a new and ambiguous combination of cues. While the effect was first reported in 1988, it has recently seen a renewed interest from researchers concerned with learning, attention and decision-making. However, some researchers have raised concerns that the effect arises in specific circumstances and is unlikely to provide insight into general learning and decision-making processes. In this review, we critically evaluate the evidence for and against the main explanations that have been proposed to explain the effect, and identify where this evidence is currently weak. We argue that concerns about the effect are not well supported by the data. Instead, the evidence supports the conclusion that the effect is a result of general mechanisms that provides a useful opportunity to understand the processes involved in learning and decision making. We discuss gaps in our knowledge and some promising avenues for future research, including the relevance of the effect to models of attentional change in learning, an area where the phenomenon promises to contribute new insights

Neural regions associated with gain-loss frequency and average reward in older and younger adults

Research on the biological basis of reinforcement-learning has focused on how brain regions track expected value based on average reward. However, recent work suggests that humans are more attuned to reward frequency. Furthermore, older adults are less likely to use expected values to guide choice than younger adults. This raises the question of whether brain regions assumed to be sensitive to average reward, like the medial and lateral PFC, also track reward frequency, and whether there are age-based differences. Older (60-81 years) and younger (18-30 years) adults performed the Soochow Gambling task, which separates reward frequency from average reward, while undergoing fMRI. Overall, participants preferred options that provided negative net payoffs, but frequent gains. Older adults improved less over time, were more reactive to recent negative outcomes, and showed greater frequency-related activation in several regions, including DLPFC. We also found broader recruitment of prefrontal and parietal regions associated with frequency value and reward prediction errors in older adults, which may indicate compensation. The results suggest greater reliance on average reward for younger adults than older adults

The scaling relation of early-type galaxies in clusters. II: Spectroscopic data for galaxies in eight nearby clusters

AIMS: We present in this work low and intermediate resolution spectroscopic data collected for 152 early type galaxies in 8 nearby clusters with z $\leq$ 0.10. METHODS: We use low resolution data to produce the redshift and the K-correction for every individual galaxy, as well as to give their overall spectral energy distribution, and some spectral indicators, including the 4000\AA break, the Mg$_2$ strength, and the NaD equivalent width.We have also obtained higher resolution data for early type galaxies in three of the clusters, to determine their central velocity dispersion. RESULTS: The effect of the resolution on the measured parameters is discussed. CONCLUSIONS: New accurate systemic redshift and velocity dispersion is presented for four of the surveyed clusters, A98, A3125, A3330, and DC2103-39. We have found that the K-correction values for E/S0 bright galaxies in a given nearby clusters are very similar. We also find that the distribution of the line indicators significantly differ from cluster to cluster.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, Accepted in A&

Unveiling professional development: A critical review of stage models

In research across professions, the development of professional skill traditionally was seen as a process of accumulation of knowledge and skills, promoted by practical experience. More recently, this view has been modified to incorporate skillful know-how that is progressively acquired by passing through developmental stages, such as novice, competent, and expert. The authors of this article critically review contemporary stage models that are typically applied across professions. Their principal critique is that a focus on stages veils or conceals more fundamental aspects of professional skill development. On the basis of their critique, the authors propose an alternative model that builds on the strengths of previous models while seeking to overcome their main limitations. Finally, the authors outline the implications of their alternative model for professional education, workplace practices, and research on professional development

Introduced Mammalian Predators Induce Behavioural Changes in Parental Care in an Endemic New Zealand Bird

The introduction of predatory mammals to oceanic islands has led to the extinction of many endemic birds. Although introduced predators should favour changes that reduce predation risk in surviving bird species, the ability of island birds to respond to such novel changes remains unstudied. We tested whether novel predation risk imposed by introduced mammalian predators has altered the parental behaviour of the endemic New Zealand bellbird (Anthornis melanura). We examined parental behaviour of bellbirds at three woodland sites in New Zealand that differed in predation risk: 1) a mainland site with exotic predators present (high predation risk), 2) a mainland site with exotic predators experimentally removed (low risk recently) and, 3) an off-shore island where exotic predators were never introduced (low risk always). We also compared parental behaviour of bellbirds with two closely related Tasmanian honeyeaters (Phylidonyris spp.) that evolved with native nest predators (high risk always). Increased nest predation risk has been postulated to favour reduced parental activity, and we tested whether island bellbirds responded to variation in predation risk. We found that females spent more time on the nest per incubating bout with increased risk of predation, a strategy that minimised activity at the nest during incubation. Parental activity during the nestling period, measured as number of feeding visits/hr, also decreased with increasing nest predation risk across sites, and was lowest among the honeyeaters in Tasmania that evolved with native predators. These results demonstrate that some island birds are able to respond to increased risk of predation by novel predators in ways that appear adaptive. We suggest that conservation efforts may be more effective if they take advantage of the ability of island birds to respond to novel predators, especially when the elimination of exotic predators is not possible

An effect of serotonergic stimulation on learning rates for rewards apparent after long intertrial intervals

Serotonin has widespread, but computationally obscure, modulatory effects on learning and cognition. Here, we studied the impact of optogenetic stimulation of dorsal raphe serotonin neurons in mice performing a non-stationary, reward-driven decision-making task. Animals showed two distinct choice strategies. Choices after short inter-trial-intervals (ITIs) depended only on the last trial outcome and followed a win-stay-lose-switch pattern. In contrast, choices after long ITIs reflected outcome history over multiple trials, as described by reinforcement learning models. We found that optogenetic stimulation during a trial significantly boosted the rate of learning that occurred due to the outcome of that trial, but these effects were only exhibited on choices after long ITIs. This suggests that serotonin neurons modulate reinforcement learning rates, and that this influence is masked by alternate, unaffected, decision mechanisms. These results provide insight into the role of serotonin in treating psychiatric disorders, particularly its modulation of neural plasticity and learning.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Effects of Handling and Anesthetic Agents on the Stress Response and Carbohydrate Metabolism in Northern Elephant Seals

Free-ranging animals often cope with fluctuating environmental conditions such as weather, food availability, predation risk, the requirements of breeding, and the influence of anthropogenic factors. Consequently, researchers are increasingly measuring stress markers, especially glucocorticoids, to understand stress, disturbance, and population health. Studying free-ranging animals, however, comes with numerous difficulties posed by environmental conditions and the particular characteristics of study species. Performing measurements under either physical restraint or chemical sedation may affect the physiological variable under investigation and lead to values that may not reflect the standard functional state of the animal. This study measured the stress response resulting from different handling conditions in northern elephant seals and any ensuing influences on carbohydrate metabolism. Endogenous glucose production (EGP) was measured using [6-3H]glucose and plasma cortisol concentration was measured from blood samples drawn during three-hour measurement intervals. These measurements were conducted in weanlings and yearlings with and without the use of chemical sedatives—under chemical sedation, physical restraint, or unrestrained. We compared these findings with measurements in adult seals sedated in the field. The method of handling had a significant influence on the stress response and carbohydrate metabolism. Physically restrained weanlings and yearlings transported to the lab had increased concentrations of circulating cortisol (F11, 46 = 25.2, p<0.01) and epinephrine (F3, 12 = 5.8, p = 0.01). Physical restraint led to increased EGP (t = 3.1, p = 0.04) and elevated plasma glucose levels (t = 8.2, p<0.01). Animals chemically sedated in the field typically did not exhibit a cortisol stress response. The combination of anesthetic agents (Telazol, ketamine, and diazepam) used in this study appeared to alleviate a cortisol stress response due to handling in the field without altering carbohydrate metabolism. Measures of hormone concentrations and metabolism made under these conditions are more likely to reflect basal values

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)