Improving cluster-based methods for investigating potential for insect pest species establishment: region-specific risk factors

Existing cluster-based methods for investigating insect species assemblages or profiles of a region to indicate the risk of new insect pest invasion have a major limitation in that they assign the same species risk factors to each region in a cluster. Clearly regions assigned to the same cluster have different degrees of similarity with respect to their species profile or assemblage. This study addresses this concern by applying weighting factors to the cluster elements used to calculate regional risk factors, thereby producing region-specific risk factors. Using a database of the global distribution of crop insect pest species, we found that we were able to produce highly differentiated region-specific risk factors for insect pests. We did this by weighting cluster elements by their Euclidean distance from the target region. Using this approach meant that risk weightings were derived that were more realistic, as they were specific to the pest profile or species assemblage of each region. This weighting method provides an improved tool for estimating the potential invasion risk posed by exotic species given that they have an opportunity to establish in a target region

Invasive alien species in the food chain : advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

Economic globalization depends on the movement of people and goods between countries. As these exchanges increase, so does the potential for translocation of harmful pests, weeds, and pathogens capable of impacting our crops, livestock and natural resources (Hulme 2009), with concomitant impacts on global food security (Cook et al. 2011)

Objective functions for comparing simulations with insect trap catch data

Targeted surveillance of high risk invasion sites using insect traps is becoming an important tool in border biosecurity, aiding in early detection and subsequent monitoring of eradication attempts. The mark-release-recapture technique is widely used to study the dispersal of insects, and to generate unbiased estimates of population density. It may also be used in the biosecurity context to quantify the efficacy of surveillance and eradication monitoring systems. Marked painted apple moths were released at three different locations in Auckland, New Zealand over six weeks during a recent eradication campaign. The results of the mark-release-recapture experiment were used to parameterise a process-based mechanistic dispersal model in order to understand the moth dispersal pattern in relation to wind patterns, and to provide biosecurity agencies with an ability to predict moth dispersal patterns. A genetic algorithm was used to fit some model parameters. Different objective functions were tested: 1) Cohen’s Kappa test, 2) the sum of squared difference on trap catches, 3) the sum of squared difference weighted by distance from the release site, 4) the sum of squared difference weighted on distance between best-fit paired data. The genetic algorithm proved to be a powerful fitting method, but the model results were highly dependant on the objective function used. Objective functions for fitting spatial data need to characterise spatial patterns as well as density (ie. recapture rate). For fitting stochastic models to datasets derived from stochastic spatial processes, objective functions need to accommodate the fact that a perfect fit is practically impossible, even if the models are the same. Applied on mark-release-recapture data, the Cohen’s Kappa test and the sum of squared difference on trap catches captured respectively the distance component of the spatial pattern and the density component adequately but failed to capture both requirements whereas the sum of squared difference weighted by distance from the release site did. However, in order to integrate the stochastic error generated by the model underlying stochastic process, only the sum of squared difference weighted on distance between best-fit paired data was adequate. The relevance of each of the fitting methods is detailed, and their respective strengths and weaknesses are discussed in relation to their ability to capture the spatial patterns of insect recaptures

Individual-based modelling of moth dispersal to improve biosecurity incursion response

1. Some biosecurity systems aimed at reducing the impacts of invasive alien species that employ sentinel trapping systems to detect the presence of unwanted organisms. Once detected, the next challenge is to locate the source population of the invasive species. Tools that can direct search efforts towards the most likely sources of a trapped invasive alien species can improve the chance of rapidly delimiting and eradicating the local population and may help to identify the original introduction pathway. Ground-based detection and delimitation surveys can be very expensive, and methods to focus search efforts to those areas most likely to contain the target organisms can make these efforts more effective and efficient. 2. An individual-based semi-mechanistic model was developed to simulate the spatio-temporal dispersal patterns of an invasive moth. The model combines appetitive and pheromone anemotaxis behaviours in response towind, temperature and pheromone conditions. The modelwas trained using data from a series ofmark-release-recapture experiments on painted applemoth Teia anartoides. 3. The model was used to create hindcast simulations by reversing the time course of environmental conditions. The ability of the model to encompass the release location was evaluated using individual trap locations as starting points for the hindcast simulations. 4. The hindcast modelling generated a pattern of moth flights that successfully encompassed the origin from 86%of trap locations, representing 95%of the 1464 recaptures observed in the mark- release-recapture experiments. 5. Comparing the guided search area defined using the hindcast model with the area of a simple point-diffusion search strategy revealed an optimized search strategy that combined searching a circle of 1 km radius around the trap followed by the area indicated by hindcast model predictions. 6. Synthesis and applications. Incorporating this novel moth dispersal model into biosecurity sentinel systems will allow incursion managers to direct search effort for the proximal source of the incursion towards those areas most likely to contain a local infestation. Such targeted effort should reduce the costs and time taken to detect the proximal source of an incursion. (Résumé d'auteur

Prioritizing the risk of plant pests by clustering methods; self-organising maps, k-means and hierarchical clustering

For greater preparedness, pest risk assessors are required to prioritise long lists of pest species with potential to establish and cause significant impact in an endangered area. Such prioritization is often qualitative, subjective, and sometimes biased, relying mostly on expert and stakeholder consultation. In recent years, cluster based analyses have been used to investigate regional pest species assemblages or pest profiles to indicate the risk of new organism establishment. Such an approach is based on the premise that the cooccurrence of well-known global invasive pest species in a region is not random, and that the pest species profile or assemblage integrates complex functional relationships that are difficult to tease apart. In other words, the assemblage can help identify and prioritise species that pose a threat in a target region. A computational intelligence method called a Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural network, was the first clustering method applied to analyse assemblages of invasive pests. The SOM is a well known dimension reduction and visualization method especially useful for high dimensional data that more conventional clustering methods may not analyse suitably. Like all clustering algorithms, the SOM can give details of clusters that identify regions with similar pest assemblages, possible donor and recipient regions. More important, however SOM connection weights that result from the analysis can be used to rank the strength of association of each species within each regional assemblage. Species with high weights that are not already established in the target region are identified as high risk. However, the SOM analysis is only the first step in a process to assess risk to be used alongside or incorporated within other measures. Here we illustrate the application of SOM analyses in a range of contexts in invasive species risk assessment, and discuss other clustering methods such as k-means, hierarchical clustering and the incorporation of the SOM analysis into criteria based approaches to assess pest risk

Oriented rotational wave-packet dynamics studies via high harmonic generation

We produce oriented rotational wave packets in CO and measure their characteristics via high harmonic generation. The wavepacket is created using an intense, femtosecond laser pulse and its second harmonic. A delayed 800 nm pulse probes the wave packet, generating even-order high harmonics that arise from the broken symmetry induced by the orientation dynamics. The even-order harmonic radiation that we measure appears on a zero background, enabling us to accurately follow the temporal evolution of the wave packet. Our measurements reveal that, for the conditions optimum for harmonic generation, the orientation is produced by preferential ionization which depletes the sample of molecules of one orientation

Intensity Dependence of Multiple Orbital Contributions and Shape Resonance in High-Order Harmonic Generation of Aligned N₂ Molecules

We report measurements and theoretical simulations of high-order harmonic generation (HHG) in aligned N₂ molecules using a 1200-nm intense laser field when the generating pulse is perpendicular to the aligning one. With increasing laser intensity, the minimum in the HHG spectra first shifts its position and then disappears. Theoretical simulations including the macroscopic propagation effects in the medium reproduce these observations and the disappearance of the minimum is attributed to the additional contribution of HHG from inner orbitals. We also predict that the well-known shape resonance in the photoionization spectra of N₂ should exist in the HHG spectra. It is most clearly seen when the generating laser is parallel to the aligning one and disappears gradually as the angle between the two lasers increases. No clear evidence of this shape resonance has been reported so far when using lasers with different wavelengths. Further experimentation is needed to draw conclusions

Contrast sensitivity and night driving in older people: Quantifying the relationship between visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and hazard detection distance in a night-time driving simulator

Purpose: (i) To assess how well contrast sensitivity (CS) predicts night-time hazard detection distance (one key component of night driving ability), in normally sighted older drivers, relative to a conventional measure of high contrast visual acuity (VA); (ii) To evaluate whether CS can be accurately quantified within a night driving simulator. Methods: Participants were fifteen (five female) ophthalmologically healthy adults, aged 55 to 81 years. CS was measured in a driving simulator using Landolt Cs, presented under static or dynamic driving conditions, and with or without glare. In the dynamic driving condition, the participant was asked to simultaneously maintain a (virtual) speed of 60 km/h on a country road. In the (dynamic) with glare condition, two calibrated LED arrays, moved by cable robots, simulated the trajectories and luminance characteristics of the (low beam) headlights of an approaching car. For comparison, CS was also measured clinically (with & without glare) using a Optovist I instrument (Vistec Inc., Olching/FRG). Visual acuity (VA) thresholds were also assessed at high and low contrast using the Freiburg Visual Acuity Test (FrACT) under photopic conditions. As a measure of driving performance, median hazard detection distance (MHDD) was computed, in meters, across three kinds of simulated obstacles of varying contrast. Results: CS and low contrast VA were both significantly associated with driving performance (both P < 0.01), whereas conventional high contrast acuity was not (P = 0.10). There was good correlation (P < 0.01) between CS measured in the driving simulator and a conventional clinical instrument (Optovist). As expected, CS was shown to decrease in the presence of glare, in dynamic driving conditions, and as a function of age (all P < 0.01). Conclusions: CS and low contrast VA predict night-time hazard detection ability in a manner that conventional high contrast VA does not. Either may therefore provide a useful metric for assessing fitness to drive at night, particularly in older individuals. CS measurements can be made within a driving simulator, and the data are in good agreement with conventional clinical methods (Optovist I)