Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60–80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables

All-cause mortality and risk factors in a cohort of retired military male veterans, Xi'an, China: an 18-year follow up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Risk factors of all-cause mortality have not been reported in Chinese retired military veterans. The objective of the study was to examine the risk factors and proportional mortality in a Chinese retired military male cohort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1268 retired military men aged 55 or older were examined physically and interviewed using a standard questionnaire in 1987. The cohort was followed up every two years and the study censored date was June30, 2005 with a follow-up of up to 18 years. Death certificates were obtained from hospitals and verified by two senior doctors. Data were entered (double entry) by Foxbase, and analysis was carried out by SAS for Windows 8.2. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to compute hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The total person-years of follow-up was 18766.28. Of the initial cohort of 1268 men, 491 had died, 748 were alive and 29 were lost to follow up. Adjusted mortality (adjusted for age, blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, triglycerides, alcohol, exercise, and existing disease) was 2,616 per 100,000 person years. The proportional mortality of cancer, vascular disease and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) were 39.71%, 28.10% and 16.90% respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, cigarettes per day, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, family history of diseases (hypertension, stroke and cancer), existing diseases (stroke, diabetes and cancer), body mass index, and age of starting smoking were associated with all-cause mortality, HR (95%CI) was1.083(1.062–1.104), 1.026(1.013–1.039), 1.009(1.003–1.015), 1.002(1.001–1.003), 1.330(1.005–1.759), 1.330(1.005–1.759), 1.444(1.103–1.890), 2.237(1.244–4.022), 1.462(1.042–2.051), 2.079(1.051–4.115), 0.963(0.931–0.996)and 0.988(0.978–0.999)respectively. Compared with never-smokers, current smokers had increased risks of total mortality [HR 1.369(1.083–1.731)], CHD [HR 1.805 (1.022–3.188)], and lung cancer [HR 2.939 (1.311–6.585)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The three leading causes of diseases were cancer, CHD and stroke, and COPD. Aging, cigarette smoking, high systolic blood pressure, high triglyceride, family history of cancer, hypertension and stroke, existing cases recovering from stroke, diabetes and cancer, underweight, younger age of smoking were risk factors for all-cause mortality. Quitting cigarette smoking, maintaining normal blood pressure, triglyceride and weight are effect control strategies to prevent premature mortality in this military cohort.</p

Ischemic stroke incidence in Santa Coloma de Gramenet (ISISCOG), Spain. A community-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Spain, stroke is one of the major causes of death and the main cause of severe disability in people over 65 years. We analyzed the incidence of ischemic stroke, stroke subtypes, case fatality and disability at 90 days after the event in a Spanish population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective community-based register of ischemic strokes was established in Santa Coloma de Gramenet (Barcelona) [116,220 inhabitants of all ages, according to the municipal census of December 31,2001], from January 1 to December 31, 2003.</p> <p>Standard definitions and case finding methods were used to identify all cases in all age groups. Every patient underwent a complete clinical evaluation and systematic tests including neuroimaging (CT/MRI) and vascular studies (carotid duplex ultrasound intra and extracranial and MR angiography).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over a one year period, 196 ischemic strokes were registered [107 men; median age = 76 years (range 39–98)], being the first event in 159 patients (81.1%) and a recurrent stroke in 37 (18.9%). After age-adjustment to the European population, the incidence of ischemic stroke per 100,000 inhabitants was 172 (95% CI, 148–196); 219 (176–261) in men and 133 (105–160) in women, with an annual incidence for first ischemic stroke of 139 (118–161); 165 (128–201) in men and 115 (89–140) in women. The incidence of stroke increased with age.</p> <p>Stroke subtypes (TOAST classification criteria) were lacunar in 28.8%, atherothrombotic in 18.6%, cardioembolic in 26.6% and undetermined in 26.0% of patients. At 90 days, the case-fatality was 12%, and among survivors, moderate-to-severe disability was present in 45 % at 3 months.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This prospective community-based study shows one of the lowest incidences of stroke in Europe, as well as one of the lowest case fatality and disability rates at 90 days after stroke.</p

Determinants of cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases in Central and Eastern Europe: Rationale and design of the HAPIEE study

BACKGROUND: Over the last five decades, a wide gap in mortality opened between western and eastern Europe; this gap increased further after the dramatic fluctuations in mortality in the former Soviet Union (FSU) in the 1990s. Recent rapid increases in mortality among lower socioeconomic groups in eastern Europe suggests that socioeconomic factors are powerful determinants of mortality in these populations but the more proximal factors linking the social conditions with health remain unclear. The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study is a prospective cohort study designed to investigate the effect of classical and non-conventional risk factors and social and psychosocial factors on cardiovascular and other non-communicable diseases in eastern Europe and the FSU. The main hypotheses of the HAPIEE study relate to the role of alcohol, nutrition and psychosocial factors. METHODS AND DESIGN: The HAPIEE study comprises four cohorts in Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania; each consists of a random sample of men and women aged 45–69 years old at baseline, stratified by gender and 5 year age groups, and selected from population registers. The total planned sample size is 36,500 individuals. Baseline information from the Czech Republic, Russia and Poland was collected in 2002–2005 and includes data on health, lifestyle, diet (food frequency), socioeconomic circumstances and psychosocial factors. A short examination included measurement of anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, lung function and cognitive function, and a fasting venous blood sample. Re-examination of the cohorts in 2006–2008 focuses on healthy ageing and economic well-being using face-to-face computer assisted personal interviews. Recruitment of the Lithuanian cohort is ongoing, with baseline and re-examination data being collected simultaneously. All cohorts are being followed up for mortality and non-fatal cardiovascular events. DISCUSSION: The HAPIEE study will provide important new insights into social, behavioural and biological factors influencing mortality and cardiovascular risk in the region