2,029 research outputs found

    Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics

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    We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system away from its deterministic subsystem. This yields a novel, general technique of approximation of the quasistationary distribution of stochastic epidemic and birth-death models, and may lead to techniques for analysis of these models beyond the quasistationary distribution. For a classic SIS model, the approximation found for the quasistationary distribution is very similar to published approximations but not identical. For a birth-death process without depletion of susceptibles, the approximation is exact. Dynamics on the phase plane similar to those predicted by the Hamiltonian analysis are demonstrated in cross-sectional data from trachoma treatment trials in Ethiopia, in which declining prevalences are consistent with subcritical epidemic dynamics

    Dynamical response of the "GGG" rotor to test the Equivalence Principle: theory, simulation and experiment. Part I: the normal modes

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    Recent theoretical work suggests that violation of the Equivalence Principle might be revealed in a measurement of the fractional differential acceleration η\eta between two test bodies -of different composition, falling in the gravitational field of a source mass- if the measurement is made to the level of η≃10−13\eta\simeq 10^{-13} or better. This being within the reach of ground based experiments, gives them a new impetus. However, while slowly rotating torsion balances in ground laboratories are close to reaching this level, only an experiment performed in low orbit around the Earth is likely to provide a much better accuracy. We report on the progress made with the "Galileo Galilei on the Ground" (GGG) experiment, which aims to compete with torsion balances using an instrument design also capable of being converted into a much higher sensitivity space test. In the present and following paper (Part I and Part II), we demonstrate that the dynamical response of the GGG differential accelerometer set into supercritical rotation -in particular its normal modes (Part I) and rejection of common mode effects (Part II)- can be predicted by means of a simple but effective model that embodies all the relevant physics. Analytical solutions are obtained under special limits, which provide the theoretical understanding. A simulation environment is set up, obtaining quantitative agreement with the available experimental data on the frequencies of the normal modes, and on the whirling behavior. This is a needed and reliable tool for controlling and separating perturbative effects from the expected signal, as well as for planning the optimization of the apparatus.Comment: Accepted for publication by "Review of Scientific Instruments" on Jan 16, 2006. 16 2-column pages, 9 figure
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