Impacts of climate change on storms and waves relevant to the coastal and marine environment around the UK

We have updated the review by Woolf and Wolf (2013) by summarising the results of the IPCC AR5 report for storms and waves and then including more-recent work published since 2013. There are similar conclusions: wavemodel results are controlled largely by the quality of the wind data used to drive them, and the forcing climate models have slightly improved in accuracy as well as resolution. In general, trends are obscured by wide natural variability and a low signal-to-noise ratio. Assessment of changes in storminess and waves over the last 200 years are limited by lack of data, while future projections are limited by the accuracy of climate models. Recent work has led to more insight in some areas. There are now more climate- and wave- model ensembles, more in-depth assessments of the results of CMIP5, and the CMIP6 project and IPCC AR6 assessments have started. There is a move towards higher-resolution models, which give better accuracy for simulation of tropical and extra-tropical storms. Further work is being done with coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave models, which give insight into key dynamic processes. There is evidence for an increase in North Atlantic storms at the end of the 20th Century. Some projections for North Atlantic storms over the 21st Century show an overall reduced frequency of storms and some indication of a poleward shift in the tracks, in the northern hemisphere (NH) winter, but there is substantial uncertainty in projecting changes in NH storm tracks, especially in the North Atlantic. Projections for waves in the North Atlantic show a reduction in mean wave height, but an increase in the most-severe wave heights. There is a likelihood of larger wave heights to the north of the UK as the Arctic sea ice retreats and leads to increased fetch

The Hot R Coronae Borealis Star DY Centauri is a Binary

The remarkable hot R Coronae Borealis (RCB) star DY Cen is revealed to be the first and only binary system to be found among the RCB stars and their likely relatives, including the extreme helium stars and the hydrogen-deficient carbon stars. Radial velocity determinations from 1982 to 2010 have shown that DY Cen is a single-lined spectroscopic binary in an eccentric orbit with a period of 39.67 days. It is also one of the hottest and most H-rich member of the class of RCB stars. The system may have evolved from a common envelope to its current form.Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness AYA-2011-27754McDonald Observator

“Not walled facts, their essence”: Derek Walcott’s Tiepolo’s Hound and Camille Pissarro

Life-writing — a genre which goes beyond traditional biography, includes both fact and fiction, and is concerned with either entire lives or days-in-the-lives of individuals, communities, objects, or institutions — has always played an important role in Derek Walcott’s work, from Another Life (1973),Walcott’s autobiography in verse, to his last play O Starry Starry Night (2014), where he re-imagines Paul Gauguin and Vincent Van Gogh’s (often tempestuous) cohabitation in the so-called “Yellow House” in 1888 Arles. In Tiepolo’s Hound (2000), Walcott’s life rhymes with that of the Impressionist painter Jacob Camille Pissarro, who was born in the Caribbean island of St Thomas in 1830. In this work, biographical and autobiographical impulses, fact and fiction, are productively combined, as “creation” (what “might have happened”) shapes Walcott’s life-writing as much as “recreation” (what “actually” happened). Walcott’s Pissarro is an individual immersed in a set of historical networks but also a figure at the centre of a web of imagined relations which illuminate the predicament of present and past artists in the Caribbean region and the ways in which they articulate their vision vis-à-vis the metropolitan centre, their relationship with their social and natural environment, and their individual and collective identity. Tiepolo’s Hound is enriched by the inclusion of twenty-six of Walcott’s own paintings which engage in conversation with the poet’s words and add complexity to his meditation on the nature and purpose of (re)writing and (re)creating lives. Extending the catholicity of life-writing to animals, in this case dogs and, in particular, mongrels, Tiepolo’s Hound also entails a careful, if counterintuitive, evaluation of anonymity

Predictive validity of A-level grades and teacher-predicted grades in UK medical school applicants: a retrospective analysis of administrative data in a time of COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: To compare in UK medical students the predictive validity of attained A-level grades and teacher-predicted A levels for undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes. Teacher-predicted A-level grades are a plausible proxy for the teacher-estimated grades that replaced UK examinations in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also models the likely future consequences for UK medical schools of replacing public A-level examination grades with teacher-predicted grades. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study using UK Medical Education Database data. SETTING: UK medical education and training. PARTICIPANTS: Dataset 1: 81 202 medical school applicants in 2010–2018 with predicted and attained A-level grades. Dataset 2: 22 150 18-year-old medical school applicants in 2010–2014 with predicted and attained A-level grades, of whom 12 600 had medical school assessment outcomes and 1340 had postgraduate outcomes available. OUTCOME MEASURES: Undergraduate and postgraduate medical examination results in relation to attained and teacher-predicted A-level results. RESULTS: Dataset 1: teacher-predicted grades were accurate for 48.8% of A levels, overpredicted in 44.7% of cases and underpredicted in 6.5% of cases. Dataset 2: undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes correlated significantly better with attained than with teacher-predicted A-level grades. Modelling suggests that using teacher-estimated grades instead of attained grades will mean that 2020 entrants are more likely to underattain compared with previous years, 13% more gaining the equivalent of the lowest performance decile and 16% fewer reaching the equivalent of the current top decile, with knock-on effects for postgraduate training. CONCLUSIONS: The replacement of attained A-level examination grades with teacher-estimated grades as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic may result in 2020 medical school entrants having somewhat lower academic performance compared with previous years. Medical schools may need to consider additional teaching for entrants who are struggling or who might need extra support for missed aspects of A-level teaching

Caffeine intake, plasma caffeine level, and kidney function: a Mendelian randomization study

Caffeine is a psychoactive substance widely consumed worldwide, mainly via sources such as coffee and tea. The effects of caffeine on kidney function remain unclear. We leveraged the genetic variants in the CYP1A2 and AHR genes via the two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to estimate the association of genetically predicted plasma caffeine and caffeine intake on kidney traits. Genetic association summary statistics on plasma caffeine levels and caffeine intake were taken from genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses of 9876 and of >47,000 European ancestry individuals, respectively. Genetically predicted plasma caffeine levels were associated with a decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measured using either creatinine or cystatin C. In contrast, genetically predicted caffeine intake was associated with an increase in eGFR and a low risk of chronic kidney disease. The discrepancy is likely attributable to faster metabolizers of caffeine consuming more caffeine-containing beverages to achieve the same pharmacological effect. Further research is needed to distinguish whether the observed effects on kidney function are driven by the harmful effects of higher plasma caffeine levels or the protective effects of greater intake of caffeine-containing beverages, particularly given the widespread use of drinks containing caffeine and the increasing burden of kidney disease

"The dearest of our possessions": applying Floridi's information privacy concept in models of information behavior and information literacy

This conceptual paper argues for the value of an approach to privacy in the digital information environment informed by Luciano Floridi's philosophy of information and information ethics. This approach involves achieving informational privacy, through the features of anonymity and obscurity, through an optimal balance of ontological frictions. This approach may be used to modify models for information behavior and for information literacy, giving them a fuller and more effective coverage of privacy issues in the infosphere. For information behavior, the Information Seeking and Communication Model, and the Information Grounds conception, are most appropriate for this purpose. For information literacy, the metaliteracy model, using a modification a privacy literacy framework, is most suitable

"How do pilates trained physiotherapists utilize and value pilates exercise for MSK conditions? A qualitative study"

Background Pilates is a popular exercise therapy approach offering numerous benefits, including muscular strength, flexibility, control, and core stability. Pilates has been widely utilized in the prevention and rehabilitation of a variety of musculoskeletal disorders. Objectives The aim of this study was to explore the experiences and opinions of Pilates trained NHS and private practice physiotherapists in the UK, regarding the perceived benefits, risks, delivery and rationale for this exercise method. Methods This qualitative study used a self‐designed electronic survey to retrieve the views of 30 physiotherapists, who had undertaken formal Pilates Instruction training, recruited by a purposive and snowball sampling method. Questions were either multiple choice or open‐ended, examined via thematic analysis. Results Physiotherapists identified the most important benefits of Pilates as reduction in fear‐avoidance, improving bodily awareness and increasing muscular strength. Exercises that promote general movement were highlighted as being particularly useful, with a majority recommending daily practice for optimum benefit. Participants recognized lack of core strength as a key indicator, whereas others criticized excessive focus on this principle. Conclusions Physiotherapists identified a range of inter‐linked benefits and recognized that Pilates is hugely modifiable. Individualizing exercises can further encourage participation and negate the restriction of some health conditions. NHS and Private Practice Therapists utilize Pilates in a similar way, although rationales for its use may differ, as the justification for Pilates exercise may be evolving. Pilates appears a valuable methodology in the NHS, which can help patients engage with activity

Ethnicity and the Writing of Medieval Scottish history

Historians have long tended to define medieval Scottish society in terms of interactions between ethnic groups. This approach was developed over the course of the long nineteenth century, a formative period for the study of medieval Scotland. At that time, many scholars based their analysis upon scientific principles, long since debunked, which held that medieval 'peoples' could only be understood in terms of 'full ethnic packages'. This approach was combined with a positivist historical narrative that defined Germanic Anglo-Saxons and Normans as the harbingers of advances of Civilisation. While the prejudices of that era have largely faded away, the modern discipline still relies all too often on a dualistic ethnic framework. This is particularly evident in a structure of periodisation that draws a clear line between the 'Celtic' eleventh century and the 'Norman' twelfth. Furthermore, dualistic oppositions based on ethnicity continue, particularly in discussions of the law, kingship, lordship and religion