Timescales of glacial isostatic adjustment in Greenland: is transient rheology required?

The possibility of a transient rheological response to ice age loading, first discussed in the literature of the 1980s, has received renewed attention. Transient behaviour across centennial to millennial timescales has been invoked to reconcile apparently contradictory inferences of steady-state (Maxwell) viscosity based on two distinct data sets from Greenland: Holocene sea-level curves and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) derived modern crustal uplift data. To revisit this issue, we first compute depth-dependent Fréchet kernels using 1-D Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models and demonstrate that the mantle resolving power of the two Greenland data sets is highly distinct, reflecting the differing spatial scale of the associated surface loading: the sea-level records are sensitive to viscosity structure across the entire upper mantle while uplift rates associated with post-1000 CE fluctuations of the Greenland Ice Sheet have a dominant sensitivity to shallow asthenosphere viscosity. Guided by these results, we present forward models which demonstrate that a moderate low viscosity zone beneath the lithosphere in Maxwell Earth models provides a simple route to simultaneously reconciling both data sets by significantly increasing predictions of present-day uplift rates in Greenland whilst having negligible impact on predictions of Holocene relative sea-level curves from the region. Our analysis does not rule out the possibility of transient deformation, but it suggests that it is not required to simultaneously explain these two data sets. A definitive demonstration of transient behaviour requires that one account for the resolving power of the data sets in modelling the glacial isostatic adjustment process

Missing sea level rise in southeastern Greenland during and since the Little Ice Age

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the past 2 decades. Understanding ice mass and glacier changes during the preceding several hundred years prior to geodetic measurements is more difficult because evidence of past ice extent in many places was later overridden. Salt marshes provide the only continuous records of relative sea level (RSL) from close to the Greenland Ice Sheet that span the period of time during and since the Little Ice Age (LIA) and can be used to reconstruct ice mass gain and loss over recent centuries. Salt marsh sediments collected at the mouth of Dronning Marie Dal, close to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin in southeastern Greenland, record RSL changes over the past ca. 300 years through changing sediment and diatom stratigraphy. These RSL changes record a combination of processes that are dominated by local and regional changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance during this critical period that spans the maximum of the LIA and 20th-century warming. In the early part of the record (1725–1762 CE) the rate of RSL rise is higher than reconstructed from the closest isolation basin at Timmiarmiut, but between 1762 and 1880 CE the RSL rate is within the error range of the rate of RSL change recorded in the isolation basin. RSL begins to slowly fall around 1880 CE, with a total amount of RSL fall of 0.09±0.1 m in the last 140 years. Modelled RSL, which takes into account contributions from post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), ongoing deglacial GIA, the global non-ice sheet glacial melt fingerprint, contributions from thermosteric effects, the Antarctic mass loss sea level fingerprint and terrestrial water storage, overpredicts the amount of RSL fall since the end of the LIA by at least 0.5 m. The GIA signal caused by post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss is by far the largest contributor to this modelled RSL, and error in its calculation has a large impact on RSL predictions at Dronning Marie Dal. We cannot reconcile the modelled RSL and the salt marsh observations, even when moving the termination of the LIA to 1700 CE and reducing the post-LIA Greenland mass loss signal by 30 %, and a “budget residual” of  mm yr−1 since the end of the LIA remains unexplained. This new RSL record backs up other studies that suggest that there are significant regional differences in the timing and magnitude of the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the climate shift from the LIA into the 20th century

The Development Of A Modern Foraminiferal Data Set For Sea-Level Reconstructions, Wakatobi Marine National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

We collected modern foraminiferal samples to characterize the foraminiferal environments and investigate the role that temporal and spatial variability may play in controlling the nature and significance of foraminiferal assemblages of the mangroves of Kaledupa, Wakatobi Marine National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. The study of foraminiferal live and dead assemblages indicates that dead assemblages are least prone to vary in time and space, and furthermore, they accurately represent the subsurface assemblages that are the focus of paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Further analyses of the dead assemblages indicate a vertical zonation of foraminifera within the intertidal zone. Zone D-Ia is dominated by agglutinated foraminifera Arenoparrella mexicana, Miliammina fusca, M. obliqua and Trochammina inflata. Zone D-Ib has mixed agglutinated/calcareous assemblages with species such as T. inflata and Ammonia tepida. Zone D-II is dominated by numerous calcareous species including A. tepida, Discorbinella bertheloti, Elphidium advenum and Quinqueloculina spp. Zone D-Ia is found to be the most accurate sea-level indicator and its assemblages are omnipresent world-wide. Zones D-Ib and D-II are subject to both spatial and temporal variations which must be included in any sea-level reconstructions

Unintended Consequences of Conservation Actions: Managing Disease in Complex Ecosystems

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognised to be a major threat to biodiversity. Disease management tools such as control of animal movements and vaccination can be used to mitigate the impact and spread of diseases in targeted species. They can reduce the risk of epidemics and in turn the risks of population decline and extinction. However, all species are embedded in communities and interactions between species can be complex, hence increasing the chance of survival of one species can have repercussions on the whole community structure. In this study, we use an example from the Serengeti ecosystem in Tanzania to explore how a vaccination campaign against Canine Distemper Virus (CDV) targeted at conserving the African lion (Panthera leo), could affect the viability of a coexisting threatened species, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). Assuming that CDV plays a role in lion regulation, our results suggest that a vaccination programme, if successful, risks destabilising the simple two-species system considered, as simulations show that vaccination interventions could almost double the probability of extinction of an isolated cheetah population over the next 60 years. This work uses a simple example to illustrate how predictive modelling can be a useful tool in examining the consequence of vaccination interventions on non-target species. It also highlights the importance of carefully considering linkages between human-intervention, species viability and community structure when planning species-based conservation actions

Saving the world’s terrestrial megafauna

From the late Pleistocene to the Holocene, and now the so called Anthropocene, humans have been driving an ongoing series of species declines and extinctions (Dirzo et al. 2014). Large-bodied mammals are typically at a higher risk of extinction than smaller ones (Cardillo et al. 2005). However, in some circumstances terrestrial megafauna populations have been able to recover some of their lost numbers due to strong conservation and political commitment, and human cultural changes (Chapron et al. 2014). Indeed many would be in considerably worse predicaments in the absence of conservation action (Hoffmann et al. 2015). Nevertheless, most mammalian megafauna face dramatic range contractions and population declines. In fact, 59% of the world’s largest carnivores (≥ 15 kg, n = 27) and 60% of the world’s largest herbivores (≥ 100 kg, n = 74) are classified as threatened with extinction on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (supplemental table S1 and S2). This situation is particularly dire in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, home to the greatest diversity of extant megafauna (figure 1). Species at risk of extinction include some of the world’s most iconic animals—such as gorillas, rhinos, and big cats (figure 2 top row)—and, unfortunately, they are vanishing just as science is discovering their essential ecological roles (Estes et al. 2011). Here, our objectives are to raise awareness of how these megafauna are imperiled (species in supplemental table S1 and S2) and to stimulate broad interest in developing specific recommendations and concerted action to conserve them