A Method for Modeling Low-Probability, High- Consequence Risk Events: Vessel Traffic on the Lower Mississippi River

[Excerpt] A variety of commodities, from chlorine to corn and petroleum to passengers, are transported on the lower Mississippi River regularly. Corn, wheat and coal are the most commonly carried commodities. From a human health and safety perspective, these are relatively benign products in that a vessel accident and spill of these are not directly hazardous to people, whatever other ecological disturbances may ensue. However, over eighty million tons of petroleum products are transported on the river annually. Over a million tons of liquid natural gas traverse the river through the center of New Orleans. Additionally, over 400,000 tons of ammonium nitrate2 pass through the center of Baton Rouge annually. The potential for a technological disaster is certainly present […] The vast majority of the literature relevant to the question of vessel accident risk concerns the question of on-board causes of vessel accidents. It is assumed that the predictors of which vessel will have an accident are on-board the vessel (i.e., vessel and crew characteristics). The most commonly cited on-board hazards include: the size of the vessel; the age of the vessel; the length of the vessel; whether the vessel is single or double hulled; the maintenance of the vessel; the classification society under which the vessel is registered; the type of ownership; the history of ownership; where the vessel is flagged (i.e., flag of convenience or traditional maritime nation); license qualifications of mates and engineers; the vessel’s casualty history; the vessel’s history of violations; whether the vessel has system (e.g., steering) redundancy; and personnel history (including manning levels and the comparison of the present levels of manning with that of the vessel in the past and with similar type vessels)

Unidentified Flying Objects and Extraterrestrial Life: Do they exist?

In my Honors Special Studies I have undertaken a scientific investigation of Unidentified Flying Objects, and the probabilities or possibilities of extraterrestrial life. As will be shown by my findings, there are, at pre- sent, only theories with no conclusive proof concerning these phenomena. For\u27 this reason, this paper will not be simply composed of scientific findings, but it will be the specualtions and conclusions I have arrived at from making the study

Employee empowerment, action research and organizational change: a case study

This article summarizes the results of a project designed and implemented by a cross-sectional design team of employees of a local government agency. We compare the project design to criteria associated with employee empowerment programs and action research models. Finally, we compare the outcomes of the project with important components of employee empowerment. The purpose of this article is to highlight how one such project was implemented in a field setting, and review what was learned by the participants regarding how management and employees can work more effectively together on issues of strategic importance to the organization. Both the process and the outcomes of this project illustrate important lessons with implications for future research and practice in this area

Probabilistic Model for Laser Damage to the Human Retina

Understanding how lasers interact with media during propagation is a premiere field of physics. The subject area known as laser bioeffects explores laser interactions with biological cells, tissues, organs, and bodies. This research includes laser applications used in medicine, establishes safe exposure limits for industry and academia, and generally studies the many effects of laser light on living creatures. The bioeffects community relies heavily on deterministic modeling and simulation tools to support experimental research into damage thresholds and laser effects. However, recent laser applications require a probabilistic approach to support risk management and analyses methodologies. Some probabilistic models exist, but their assumptions are largely biased due to sampling and reporting techniques. This research focuses on building the first-ever population-based probabilistic model for retinal damage using a statistical model of the optical properties and dimensions of the human eye. Simulated population distributions are used as input to propagation and thermal damage models for analysis. The results of this research are intended to provide a foundation for future probabilistic models and applications. The format of this document is two separate papers. The first is the development of the statistical eye model based on human covariance data: An Analysis of the Influences of Biological Variance, Measurement Error, and Uncertainty on Retinal Photothermal Damage Threshold Studies. The paper examines trends in wavelength and time dependencies of damage thresholds. The second paper, Biological Variance-Based Dose Response Model for 514 to 1064 Nanometer Laser Exposures, is the application of the statistical eye model in the creation of the dose-response model. The model can be used to establish the design space in the development of future laser systems. It provides the foundation for a true population-based risk analysis tool for safety standards development

Hazards to Navigation on the Lower Mississippi River and at -Risk Human Populations.

This dissertation tests whether known hazards to navigation determine the location of vessel accidents along the lower Mississippi River and describes the human populations most at risk according to predictions. The data are comprised of the relative risk index of river hazards (Forsyth et al. 1996, Gramling et al. 1998), the demographic characteristics of nearby residents, (U.S. Census 1990), and actual U.S. Coast Guard accident reports. Usable predictors of vessel accidents and a knowledge of population characteristics will enable better planning of emergency response, better placement of emergency response equipment, and more effective efforts to prevent vessel. accidents along the lower Mississippi River which is the busiest commercial waterway in the world. In the models computed here, vessel accidents are generally well predicted by the location of known hazards. Results of these models indicate that the human populations at-risk vary widely along the river. At some accident prone points, population density is very high, and many persons are at risk. At other hazardous locations, population density is quite low. Socioeconomic characteristics of the at-risk populations vary from one dangerous location to another. Some at-risk populations are relatively affluent and others are impoverished. The racial and ethnic composition also varies such that some hazardous locations are inhabited primarily by racial and ethnic minorities, while others are settled by majority racial and ethnic groups. This population heterogeneity should be taken into account in planning, preparation and response to river vessel accidents

Regime Theory Revisited: The Role Of Nonprofit Organizations In Urban Policymaking

REGIME THEORY REVISITED: THE ROLE OF NONPROFITS IN URBAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT by MICHELLE L. WOODDELL AUGUST 2014 Advisor: Dr. Brady Baybeck Major: Political Science Degree: Doctor of Philosophy While quite a bit has been written about the policymaking roles played by government and business actors, much less attention has been paid to the ways in which the U.S. nonprofit sector contributes to policy outcomes in urban areas. The dominant theory of urban governance, regime theory, has thus far marginalized the policymaking importance of nonprofits in urban areas, arguing that their role has largely been restricted to that of interested observer and occasional assistant rather than forceful actor or active partner. In certain urban policy arenas, however, the active participation of the nonprofit sector and its leaders can be a critical factor in the achievement of desirable policy outcomes, as government and business actors alone are not able to mobilize the resources necessary to accomplish policy goals. By examining the actors, processes, and outcomes in selected policy arenas in a major American city (Detroit) during the first decade of the 21st century, my research assesses the degree to which the nonprofit sector plays a collaborative and leadership role in urban policymaking

Behavioral and hormonal changes following social instability in young rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by American Psychological Association in Journal of Comparative Psychology, available online at: https://doi.org/10.1037/com0000297 This article may not exactly replicate the authoritative document published in the APA journal. It is not the copy of recordSocial instability (SI) occurs when there is competition over social status. Reduced certainty of social status can lead to heightened aggression, which can increase physiological stress responses, as individuals prepare to fight for their social status. However, adults can take proactive coping mechanisms to reduce the physiological stress induced by SI, such as increasing affiliation. Very little is known, however, about the behavioral and hormonal effects of SI early in development. Filling these gaps in knowledge would add to the fields of primatology and developmental and comparative psychology. We conducted an opportunistic study of a peer group of 18 rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) yearlings before and during SI. We used social network analysis to measure individuals’ dominance certainty (DC, in their aggressive and submissive network) and their position in affiliative networks (grooming and play) and analyzed hair cortisol concentrations (HCCs). As predicted, during SI, we observed a decrease in DC, indicating that individuals had less stable dominance positions. As well, during SI, we observed increased rates of social grooming and decreased rates of social play, reflecting potential coping mechanisms. More socially connected individuals in social grooming and social play networks received higher levels of coalitionary support. Contrary to predictions, DC did not predict HCCs; rather individuals that were more connected in the social play network exhibited smaller increases in HCCs during SI, revealing a potential buffering effect of social play. Our results underscore the need for further research on the effects of SI during ontogeny.Division of Intramural Research at the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

Effects of dominance and female presence on secondary sexual characteristics in male tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus apella)

Alpha status may lead to physiological changes that enhance secondary sexual characteristics, which may serve as competitive signals to conspecific males, sexual signals to females, or possibly a combination of both. Here we report measurements of secondary sexual characteristics in captive dominant and subordinate male tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus apella) with varying access to females. An adult male (who had previously been subordinate while housed with other males) was paired with an adult female, and then this male-female pair was introduced into a room that housed three other male-male pairs with stable hierarchy arrangements. We analyzed weight, body measurements, facial photographs, and hair cortisol before, during, and after introducing a female into the room. While there were no differences in weight or measurements between alphas and subordinates without physical access to the female prior to or during the female’s presence, we found that direct access to the female resulted in dramatic changes in facial appearance, body size, and testicular volume in the male who was paired with her. Overall, we found little evidence to suggest that alpha males advertise their status within all male groups via sexual secondary characteristics. However, direct physical access to females appears to trigger the development of such characteristics in alpha males. It remains of continued interest to identify the endocrine mechanisms responsible for the development, and possible loss, of secondary sexual characteristics

Dominance rank predicts social network position across developmental stages in rhesus monkeys

Social network analysis is increasingly common in studying the complex interactions among individuals. Across a range of primates, high-ranking adults are generally more socially connected, which results in better fitness outcomes. However, it still remains unclear whether this relationship between social network position and dominance rank emergences in infancy and whether, in species with a social transmission of dominance rank, social network positions are driven by the presence of the mother. To fill this gap, we first explored whether dominance ranks were related to social network position, measured via eigenvector centrality, in infants, juveniles, and adults in a troop of semi-free ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta). We then examined relationships between dominance rank and eigenvector centrality in a peer-only group of yearlings who were reared with their mothers in either a rich, socially complex environment of multigenerational (MG) kin support or a unigenerational (UG) group of mothers and their infants from birth through eight months. In experiment 1, we found that mother’s network position predicted offspring network position, and that dominants across all age categories were more central in affiliative networks (social contact, social grooming, and social play). Experiment 2 showed that high-ranking yearlings in a peer-only group were more central only in the social contact network. Moreover, yearlings reared in a socially complex environment of MG kin support were more central. Our findings suggest that the relationship between dominance rank and social network position begins early in life, and that complex early social environments can promote later social competency. Our data add to the growing body of evidence that the presence/absence of the mother and kin influence how dominance rank affects social network position. These findings have important implications for the role of caregivers in the social status of developing primates, which ultimately ties to health and fitness outcomes

Do capuchin monkeys (Sapajus apella) prefer symmetrical face shapes?

In humans, facial symmetry has been linked to an individual’s genetic quality, and facial symmetry has a small yet significant effect on ratings of facial attractiveness. The same evolutionary processes underlying these phenomena may also convey a selective advantage to symmetrical individuals of other primate species, yet to date, few studies have examined sensitivity to facial symmetry in non-human primates. Here we presented images of symmetrical and asymmetrical human and monkey faces to tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus apella), and hypothesized that capuchins would visually prefer symmetrical faces of opposite sex conspecifics. Instead, we found that male capuchins preferentially attended to symmetrical male conspecific faces whereas female capuchins did not appear to discriminate between symmetrical and asymmetrical faces. These results suggest that male capuchin monkeys may use facial symmetry to judge male quality in intra-male competition