Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations

Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). We also compare the results from these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on 12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009. We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999) can result in significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME propagates outside of 60deg \pm 20 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line. We expect our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs propagating approximatively towards Earth (\pm 20deg from the Sun-Earth line). Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had an heliospheric deflection of less than 20deg as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates this approximation.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Solar Physic

Commentary: how will interventional oncology navigate the "valleys of death" for new medical devices?

Whereas clinical trials of cancer drugs have methodological standards and conventional primary endpoints, these are not necessarily applicable to the clinical development of loco-regional treatments and new medical devices. The current challenge is to generate high-level clinical evidence for loco-regional treatments to define the benefits for patients. In this article, we argue that, to generate convincing evidence of clinical efficacy and safety, the collective coherence of the entire data package is often more important than the primary endpoint of one clinical trial. We also propose that, when a comprehensive clinical data package is not feasible, limited clinical data can be supplemented with other types of evidence. Emerging life science companies often define the "valley of death" after securing initial investment to translate an early medical device concept to a development stage that is attractive to funders. Unfortunately for this industry, there is a second "valley of death" if the focus and goal is only regulatory approval, to the neglect of clinical acceptance and reimbursement. For the emerging specialism of interventional oncology, it is critical to plan a clear line of sight for each new medical device to avoid the valleys of death and to demonstrate the clinical benefit. Increased international guidance to establish realistic yet convincing standards in this area may avoid attrition of potentially beneficial devices and therapeutic procedures in the valleys of death

Enhanced THz transmission apertures through sub-wavelength annular apertures

We report on the development of a surface micromachined process for the fabrication of coaxial apertures surrounded by periodic grooves. The process uses a combination of copper electroforming and the negative epoxy based resist, SU8, as a thin flexible substrate. The device dimensions are suitable for the implementation of filters at THz frequencies, and measurements show a pass band centred around 1.5 THz. These devices could form the basis of the next generation of THz biosensors

Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions, including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs, we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied, the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average accuracy of 2.9 hours.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

A dedicated haem lyase is required for the maturation of a novel bacterial cytochrome c with unconventional covalent haem binding

In bacterial c-type cytochromes, the haem cofactor is covalently attached via two cysteine residues organized in a haem c-binding motif. Here, a novel octa-haem c protein, MccA, is described that contains only seven conventional haem c-binding motifs (CXXCH), in addition to several single cysteine residues and a conserved CH signature. Mass spectrometric analysis of purified MccA from Wolinella succinogenes suggests that two of the single cysteine residues are actually part of an unprecedented CX15CH sequence involved in haem c binding. Spectroscopic characterization of MccA identified an unusual high-potential haem c with a red-shifted absorption maximum, not unlike that of certain eukaryotic cytochromes c that exceptionally bind haem via only one thioether bridge. A haem lyase gene was found to be specifically required for the maturation of MccA in W. succinogenes. Equivalent haem lyase-encoding genes belonging to either the bacterial cytochrome c biogenesis system I or II are present in the vicinity of every known mccA gene suggesting a dedicated cytochrome c maturation pathway. The results necessitate reconsideration of computer-based prediction of putative haem c-binding motifs in bacterial proteomes

Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections: A Statistically Determined Flare Flux-CME Mass Correlation

In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6,733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12,050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10-80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within +/-45 degrees in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log(CME mass)~0.68*log(flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log(CME mass)~0.33*log(flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log(CME mass)~0.70*log(flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ~10^-7 to 10^-4 W m^-2.Comment: 28 pages, 16 figures, accepted to Solar Physic

A self-consistent model of Galactic stellar and dust infrared emission and the abundance of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

We present a self-consistent three-dimensional Monte-Carlo radiative transfer model of the stellar and dust emission in the Milky-Way, and have computed synthetic observations of the 3.6 to 100 microns emission in the Galactic mid-plane. In order to compare the model to observations, we use the GLIMPSE, MIPSGAL, and IRAS surveys to construct total emission spectra, as well as longitude and latitude profiles for the emission. The distribution of stars and dust is taken from the SKY model, and the dust emissivities includes an approximation of the emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in addition to thermal emission. The model emission is in broad agreement with the observations, but a few modifications are needed to obtain a good fit. Firstly, by adjusting the model to include two major and two minor spiral arms rather than four equal spiral arms, the fit to the longitude profiles for |l|>30 degrees can be improved. Secondly, introducing a deficit in the dust distribution in the inner Galaxy results in a better fit to the shape of the IRAS longitude profiles at 60 and 100 microns. With these modifications, the model fits the observed profiles well, although it systematically under-estimates the 5.8 and 8.0 microns fluxes. One way to resolve this discrepancy is to increase the abundance of PAH molecules by 50% compared to the original model, although we note that changes to the dust distribution or radiation field may provide alternative solutions. Finally, we use the model to quantify which stellar populations contribute the most to the heating of different dust types, and which stellar populations and dust types contribute the most to the emission at different wavelengths.Comment: Published in A&A. This version has been revised (compared to the published version) to include additional references to previous work. Scripts to reproduce the results in this paper can be found as supplementary material on the A&A site, or at https://github.com/hyperion-rt/paper-galaxy-rt-mode

Time-variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with cloud transitions during the Holocene, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.Comment: Submitted to Space Sciences Review

Pion double charge exchange on 4He

The doubly differential cross sections for the $^4$He$(\pi^+,\pi^-) 4p$ reaction were calculated using both a two-nucleon sequential single charge exchange model and an intranuclear cascade code. Final state interactions between the two final protons which were the initial neutrons were included in both methods. At incident pion energies of 240 and 270 MeV the low-energy peak observed experimentally in the energy spectrum of the final pions can be understood only if the contribution of pion production is included. The calculated cross sections are compared with data.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figure

Economic Fluctuations and Diffusion

Stock price changes occur through transactions, just as diffusion in physical systems occurs through molecular collisions. We systematically explore this analogy and quantify the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of transactions $N_{\Delta t}$ - and the price change $G_{\Delta t}$, for a given stock, over a time interval $[t, t+\Delta t]$. To this end, we analyze a database documenting every transaction for 1000 US stocks over the two-year period 1994-1995. We find that price movements are equivalent to a complex variant of diffusion, where the diffusion coefficient fluctuates drastically in time. We relate the analog of the diffusion coefficient to two microscopic quantities: (i) the number of transactions $N_{\Delta t}$ in $\Delta t$, which is the analog of the number of collisions and (ii) the local variance $w^2_{\Delta t}$ of the price changes for all transactions in $\Delta t$, which is the analog of the local mean square displacement between collisions. We study the distributions of both $N_{\Delta t}$ and $w_{\Delta t}$, and find that they display power-law tails. Further, we find that $N_{\Delta t}$ displays long-range power-law correlations in time, whereas $w_{\Delta t}$ does not. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that the pronounced tails of the distribution of $G_{\Delta t} are due to$w_{\Delta t}$, and that the long-range correlations previously found for$| G_{\Delta t} |$are due to$N_{\Delta t}$.Comment: RevTex 2 column format. 6 pages, 36 references, 15 eps figure