What’s my target? Analyst forecast dispersion and earnings management through effective tax rates

Kirk, Reppenhagen, and Tucker (2014) report that, consistent with the existence of private information, investors use individual analyst forecasts as additional benchmarks to evaluate reported earnings. Following this logic, we investigate whether managers consider the private information in a subset of analyst forecasts when managing earnings. Specifically, we test whether changes in year-end tax accruals are associated with analyst forecast dispersion, our measure of private information. We find that when pre-managed earnings would have beat the consensus and analyst private information is low (i.e., dispersion is low), managers increase tax expense and create cookie jar reserves. When analyst forecasts reflect increased levels of private information (i.e., dispersion is high), we find that firms use tax expense to further increase earnings even when pre-managed earnings would have beat the consensus. Additional analyses reveal that the effect of dispersion is conditional on the proximity of pre-managed earnings to the consensus forecast. Our results highlight how managers consider individual analyst forecasts to calibrate earnings management and contribute to our understanding of earnings management activity around consensus estimates

Public Performance Metrics: Driving Physician Motivation and Performance

Introduction: As providers transition from “fee-for-service” to “pay-for-performance” models, focus has shifted to improving performance. This trend extends to the emergency department (ED) where visits continue to increase across the United States. Our objective was to determine whether displaying public performance metrics of physician triage data could drive intangible motivators and improve triage performance in the ED.Methods: This is a single institution, time-series performance study on a physician-in-triage system. Individual physician baseline metrics—number of patients triaged and dispositioned per shift—were obtained and prominently displayed with identifiable labels during each quarterly physician group meeting. Physicians were informed that metrics would be collected and displayed quarterly and that there would be no bonuses, punishments, or required training; physicians were essentially free to do as they wished. It was made explicit that the goal was to increase the number triaged, and while the number dispositioned would also be displayed, it would not be a focus, thereby acting as this study’s control. At the end of one year, we analyzed metrics.Results: The group’s average number of patients triaged per shift were as follows: Q1-29.2; Q2-31.9; Q3-34.4; Q4-36.5 (Q1 vs Q4, p < 0.00001). The average numbers of patients dispositioned per shift were Q1-16.4; Q2-17.8; Q3-16.9; Q4-15.3 (Q1 vs Q4, p = 0.14). The top 25% of Q1 performers increased their average numbers triaged from Q1-36.5 to Q4-40.3 (ie, a statistically insignificant increase of 3.8 patients per shift [p = 0.07]). The bottom 25% of Q1 performers, on the other hand, increased their averages from Q1-22.4 to Q4-34.5 (ie, a statistically significant increase of 12.2 patients per shift [p = 0.0013]).Conclusion: Public performance metrics can drive intangible motivators (eg, purpose, mastery, and peer pressure), which can be an effective, low-cost strategy to improve individual performance, achieve institutional goals, and thrive in the pay-for-performance era

Trace level detection of analytes using artificial olfactometry

The present invention provides a device for detecting the presence of an analyte, wherein said analyte is a microorganism marker gas. The device comprises a sample chamber having a fluid inlet port for the influx of the microorganism marker gas; a fluid concentrator in flow communication with the sample chamber, wherein the fluid concentrator has an absorbent material capable of absorbing the microorganism marker gas and thereafter releasing a concentrated microorganism marker gas; and an array of sensors in fluid communication with the concentrated microorganism marker gas. The sensor array detects and identifies the marker gas upon its release from fluid concentrate

The Interstellar Medium and Star Formation in Edge-On Galaxies. II. NGC 4157, 4565, and 5907

We present a study of the vertical structure of the gaseous and stellar disks in a sample of edge-on galaxies (NGC 4157, 4565, and 5907) using BIMA/CARMA 12CO (J = 1 --> 0), VLA H I, and Spitzer 3.6 micron data. In order to take into account projection effects when we measure the disk thickness as a function of radius, we first obtain the inclination by modeling the radio data. Using the measurement of the disk thicknesses and the derived radial profiles of gas and stars, we estimate the corresponding volume densities and vertical velocity dispersions. Both stellar and gas disks have smoothly varying scale heights and velocity dispersions, contrary to assumptions of previous studies. Using the velocity dispersions, we find that the gravitational instability parameter Q follows a fairly uniform profile with radius and is greater than or equal to 1 across the star forming disk. The star formation law has a slope that is significantly different from those found in more face-on galaxy studies, both in deprojected and pixel-by-pixel plots. Midplane gas pressure based on the varying scale heights and velocity dispersions appears to roughly hold a power-law correlation with the midplane volume density ratio.Comment: 26 pages, 26 figures, Accepted for publication in A

Indicators of scientific value: An under-recognised ecosystem service of coastal and marine habitats

Coastal ecosystems provide a broad range of ecosystem services, which can be used to justify habitat conservation. The cultural ecosystem services of coastal ecosystems are generally underappreciated, and this is particularly the case when quantifying their scientific value. We created a tiered set of indicators to quantify scientific value spatially, and tested them using the case study of the island nation of Singapore. We conducted a systematic review of research papers, book chapters, conference reports and academic theses produced across 10 coastal ecosystems in Singapore, including mangroves, seagrasses, coral reefs, beaches and artificial coastal structures. At least 656 articles have been produced on Singapore’s coastal zone, with 2201 unique observations, showing that scientific value is spatially variable along Singapore’s coastline. Novel indicators such as the Site Impact Factor are able to differentiate scientific value between sites. This method has shed light on an under-recognised, but important cultural ecosystem service, and is applicable to other spatially-bounded coastal, marine and terrestrial landscapes