SATMC: Spectral Energy Distribution Analysis Through Markov Chains

We present the general purpose spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting tool SED Analysis Through Markov Chains (SATMC). Utilizing Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms, SATMC fits an observed SED to SED templates or models of the user's choice to infer intrinsic parameters, generate confidence levels and produce the posterior parameter distribution. Here we describe the key features of SATMC from the underlying MCMC engine to specific features for handling SED fitting. We detail several test cases of SATMC, comparing results obtained to traditional least-squares methods, which highlight its accuracy, robustness and wide range of possible applications. We also present a sample of submillimetre galaxies that have been fitted using the SED synthesis routine GRASIL as input. In general, these SMGs are shown to occupy a large volume of parameter space, particularly in regards to their star formation rates which range from ~30-3000 M_sun yr^-1 and stellar masses which range from ~10^10-10^12 M_sun. Taking advantage of the Bayesian formalism inherent to SATMC, we also show how the fitting results may change under different parametrizations (i.e., different initial mass functions) and through additional or improved photometry, the latter being crucial to the study of high-redshift galaxies.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, MNRAS accepte

Cardiotonic Modulation in Heart Failure Insights From Traditional Chinese Medicine∗

Medicinal herbs have been used over the past centuries for restoring the body's homeostatic balance. Contemporary use of herbal supplements remains widespread in many cultures as treatment for specific ailments. Many possess cardiovascular actions, and some interact with cardiac medications. However, there is variable scientific evidence with respect to their safety and efficacy, and few have been subjected to the same rigorous evaluation processes and regulations as contemporary pharmaceuticals (1). In the field of heart failure, we have also witnessed the failure of promising naturopathic therapies like hawthorn extract in translating their potential benefits in rigorous clinical trials (2,3)

The cumulative effects of known susceptibility variants to predict primary biliary cirrhosis risk.

Multiple genetic variants influence the risk for development of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). To explore the cumulative effects of known susceptibility loci on risk, we utilized a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) to evaluate whether genetic information can predict susceptibility. The wGRS was created using 26 known susceptibility loci and investigated in 1840 UK PBC and 5164 controls. Our data indicate that the wGRS was significantly different between PBC and controls (P=1.61E-142). Moreover, we assessed predictive performance of wGRS on disease status by calculating the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. The area under curve for the purely genetic model was 0.72 and for gender plus genetic model was 0.82, with confidence limits substantially above random predictions. The risk of PBC using logistic regression was estimated after dividing individuals into quartiles. Individuals in the highest disclosed risk group demonstrated a substantially increased risk for PBC compared with the lowest risk group (odds ratio: 9.3, P=1.91E-084). Finally, we validated our findings in an analysis of an Italian PBC cohort. Our data suggested that the wGRS, utilizing genetic variants, was significantly associated with increased risk for PBC with consistent discriminant ability. Our study is a first step toward risk prediction for PBC

HBV and HCV test uptake and correlates among men who have sex with men in China: a nationwide cross-sectional online survey.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) cause substantial morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, including China. WHO guidelines recommend men who have sex with men (MSM) receive HBV and HCV screening. The purpose of this study was to determine the proportion of MSM in China who have HBV and HCV tested and identify correlates of test uptake. METHODS: We conducted an online cross-sectional survey of young MSM in China. Respondents were asked to report previous HBV and HCV testing, sociodemographic information, sexual risk factors for hepatitis infection, other STI testing and primary care physician (PCP) status. Associations were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: 503 eligible MSM completed the survey. 41.0% (206/503) of MSM had HCV tested, and 38.2% (60/157) of MSM with no or uncertain HBV vaccination had HBV tested. In multivariate analysis, HCV testing was correlated with HBV testing (adjusted OR (aOR) 22.98, 95% CI 12.11 to 43.60), HIV testing (aOR 3.64, 95% CI 1.92 to 6.91), HIV-positive status (aOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.98) and having a PCP (aOR 2.40, 95% CI 1.44 to 3.98). Among MSM with no or uncertain HBV vaccination, HBV testing was correlated with HCV testing (aOR 80.85, 95% CI 20.80 to 314.33), HIV testing (aOR 5.26, 95% CI 1.81 to 15.28), HIV-positive status (aOR 3.00, 95% CI 1.22 to 7.37) and having a PCP (aOR 2.69, 95% CI 1.00 to 7.26). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest many young MSM in China have not received hepatitis testing. HCV testing rates were lower than those recently reported among MSM in Australia and the USA. The strong correlation between HBV and HCV testing suggests bundled testing interventions may be useful for MSM in China. Men with a PCP were more likely to have received hepatitis testing, consistent with literature demonstrating the importance of primary care in expanding access to testing

Advanced methodologies for design of storm sewer systems

This report describes the development of a series of computer models capable of determining the diameter, slope and crown elevations of each sewer in a storm drainage system in which the layout and manhole locations are predetermined. The criterion for design decisions is the generation of a least-cost system. The basis for all of the models is the application of discrete differential dynamic programing (DDDP) as the optimization tool. Two important concepts are introduced as optimal model components: hydrograph routing and risks and uncertainties in designs. Three routing procedures are adopted, each with its own advantages. Expected flood damage costs are evaluated through the analysis of numerous risks and uncertainties associated with the design. This analysis permits the estimation of the probability of exceeding the capacity and the corresponding expected assessed damage of any sewer in the system. The expected damage cost is added to the installation cost to obtain the total cost which is then minimized in the DDDP procedure. Two example sewer systems are used as a basis for illustrating different aspects of the various least-cost design models and developing user guidelines.U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyOpe

Oxidative stress and cardiovascular risk in type 1 diabetes mellitus: Insights from the DCCT/EDIC study

Background--Hyperglycemia leading to increased oxidative stress is implicated in the increased risk for the development of macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods and Results--A random subcohort of 349 participants was selected from the DCCT/EDIC (Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications) cohort. This included 320 controls and 29 cardiovascular disease cases that were augmented with 98 additional known cases to yield a case cohort of 447 participants (320 controls, 127 cases). Biosamples from DCCT baseline, year 1, and closeout of DCCT, and 1 to 2 years post-DCCT (EDIC years 1 and 2) were measured for markers of oxidative stress, including plasma myeloperoxidase, paraoxonase activity, urinary F2α isoprostanes, and its metabolite, 2,3 dinor-8 iso prostaglandin F2α. Following adjustment for glycated hemoblobin and weighting the observations inversely proportional to the sampling selection probabilities, higher paraoxonase activity, reflective of antioxidant activity, and 2,3 dinor-8 iso prostaglandin F2α, an oxidative marker, were significantly associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (-4.5% risk for 10% higher paraoxonase, P \u3c 0.003; -5.3% risk for 10% higher 2,3 dinor-8 iso prostaglandin F2α, P=0.0092). In contrast, the oxidative markers myeloperoxidase and F2α isoprostanes were not significantly associated with cardiovascular disease after adjustment for glycated hemoblobin. There were no significant differences between DCCT intensive and conventional treatment groups in the change in all biomarkers across time segments. Conclusions--Heightened antioxidant activity (rather than diminished oxidative stress markers) is associated with lower cardiovascular disease risk in type 1 diabetes mellitus, but these biomarkers did not change over time with intensification of glycemic control. © 2018 The Authors

Muon Simulations for Super-Kamiokande, KamLAND and CHOOZ

Muon backgrounds at Super-Kamiokande, KamLAND and CHOOZ are calculated using MUSIC. A modified version of the Gaisser sea level muon distribution and a well-tested Monte Carlo integration method are introduced. Average muon energy, flux and rate are tabulated. Plots of average energy and angular distributions are given. Implications on muon tracker design for future experiments are discussed.Comment: Revtex4 33 pages, 16 figures and 4 table