Dark Matter in Dwarf Spheroidals I: Models

This paper introduces a new two-parameter family of dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxy models. The density distribution has a Plummer profile and falls like the inverse fourth power of distance in projection, in agreement with the star-count data. The first free parameter controls the velocity anisotropy, the second controls the dark matter content. The dark matter distribution can be varied from one extreme of mass-follows-light through a near-isothermal halo with flat rotation curve to the other extreme of an extended dark halo with harmonic core. This family of models is explored analytically in some detail -- the distribution functions, the intrinsic moments and the projected moments are all calculated. For the nearby Galactic dSphs, samples of hundreds of discrete radial velocities are becoming available. A technique is developed to extract the anisotropy and dark matter content from such data sets by maximising the likelihood function of the sample of radial velocities. This is constructed from the distribution function and corrected for observational errors and the effects of binaries. Tests on simulated data sets show that samples of 1000 discrete radial velocities are ample to break the degeneracy between mass and anisotropy in the nearby dSphs. Interesting constraints can already be placed on the distribution of the dark matter with samples of 160 radial velocities (the size of the present-day data set for Draco).Comment: 16 pages, version in press at MNRA

Smoking characteristics of Polish immigrants in Dublin

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study examined two main hypotheses: a) Polish immigrants' smoking estimates are greater than their Irish counterparts (b) Polish immigrants purchasing cigarettes from Poland smoke "heavier" (≥ 20 cigarettes a day) when compared to those purchasing cigarettes from Ireland. The study also set out to identify significant predictors of 'current' smoking (some days and everyday) among the Polish immigrants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Dublin residents of Polish origin (n = 1,545) completed a previously validated Polish questionnaire in response to an advertisement in a local Polish lifestyle magazine over 5 weekends (July–August, 2007). The Office of Tobacco Control telephone-based monthly survey data were analyzed for the Irish population in Dublin for the same period (n = 484).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age-sex adjusted smoking estimates were: 47.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 47.3%; 48.0%) among the Poles and 27.8% (95% CI: 27.2%; 28.4%) among the general Irish population (p < 0.001). Of the57% of smokers (n = 345/606) who purchased cigarettes solely from Poland and the 33% (n = 198/606) who purchased only from Ireland, 42.6% (n = 147/345) and 41.4% (n = 82/198) were "heavy" smokers, respectively (p = 0.79). Employment (Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.89; 95% CI: 1.25–6.69), lower education (OR: 3.76; 95%CI: 2.46–5.74), and a longer stay in Ireland (>24 months) were significant predictors of current smoking among the Poles. An objective validation of the self-reported smoking history of a randomly selected sub-sample immigrant group, using expired carbon monoxide (CO) measurements, showed a highly significant correlation coefficient (r = 0.64) of expired CO levels with the reported number of cigarettes consumed (p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Polish immigrants' smoking estimates are higher than their Irish counterparts, and particularly if employed, with only primary-level education, and are overseas >2 years.</p

The Discovery Potential of a Super B Factory

The Proceedings of the 2003 SLAC Workshops on flavor physics with a high luminosity asymmetric e+e- collider. The sensitivity of flavor physics to physics beyond the Standard Model is addressed in detail, in the context of the improvement of experimental measurements and theoretical calculations.Comment: 476 pages. Printed copies may be obtained by request to [email protected] . arXiv admin note: v2 appears to be identical to v

From "Infant Hercules" to "Ghost Town":Industrial collapse and social harm on Teesside

This article explicates the harms associated with deindustrialization in Teesside in the North East of England in the context of neoliberalism. Drawing on in-depth qualitative interviews (n = 25), the article explores how ongoing industrial collapse, typified by Sahaviriya Steel Industries’ (SSI) closure in 2015, has generated various harms. First, the article examines industrialism’s socioeconomic security and stability. It then explores the negative impact of SSI’s closure in 2015, including a sense of loss and unemployment. Next, it demonstrates how the absence of economic stability produces harmful outcomes, namely insecurity, mental health problems and bleak visions of the future. The article concludes by casting industrial ruination as an impediment to human flourishing; the normal functioning of capitalism represents a “negative motivation to harm” that prevents the stability and security necessary for individual and collective flourishin

Localised climate change defines ant communities in human‐modified tropical landscapes

Funder: Sime Darby FoundationFunder: Sir Philip Reckitt Educational TrustFunder: Czech Science Foundation; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001824Abstract: Logging and habitat conversion create hotter microclimates in tropical forest landscapes, representing a powerful form of localised anthropogenic climate change. It is widely believed that these emergent conditions are responsible for driving changes in communities of organisms found in modified tropical forests, although the empirical evidence base for this is lacking. Here we investigated how interactions between the physiological traits of genera and the environmental temperatures they experience lead to functional and compositional changes in communities of ants, a key organism in tropical forest ecosystems. We found that the abundance and activity of ant genera along a gradient of forest disturbance in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, was defined by an interaction between their thermal tolerance (CTmax) and environmental temperature. In more disturbed, warmer habitats, genera with high CTmax had increased relative abundance and functional activity, and those with low CTmax had decreased relative abundance and functional activity. This interaction determined abundance changes between primary and logged forest that differed in daily maximum temperature by a modest 1.1°C, and strengthened as the change in microclimate increased with disturbance. Between habitats that differed by 5.6°C (primary forest to oil palm) and 4.5°C (logged forest to oil palm), a 1°C difference in CTmax among genera led to a 23% and 16% change in relative abundance, and a 22% and 17% difference in functional activity. CTmax was negatively correlated with body size and trophic position, with ants becoming significantly smaller and less predatory as microclimate temperatures increased. Our results provide evidence to support the widely held, but never directly tested, assumption that physiological tolerances underpin the influence of disturbance‐induced microclimate change on the abundance and function of invertebrates in tropical landscapes. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

High resolution diffusion imaging in the unfixed post-mortem infant brain at 7T

Diffusion MRI of the infant brain allows investigation of the organizational structure of maturing fibers during brain development. Post-mortem imaging has the potential to achieve high resolution by using long scan times, enabling precise assessment of small structures. Technical development for post-mortem diffusion MRI has primarily focused on scanning of fixed tissue, which is robust to effects like temperature drift that can cause unfixed tissue to degrade. The ability to scan unfixed tissue in the intact body would enable post-mortem studies without organ donation, but poses new technical challenges. This paper describes our approach to scan setup, protocol optimization, and tissue protection in the context of the Developing Human Connectome Project (dHCP) of neonates. A major consideration was the need to preserve the integrity of unfixed tissue during scanning in light of energy deposition at ultra-high magnetic field strength. We present results from one of the first two subjects recruited to the study, who died on postnatal day 46 at 29+6 weeks postmenstrual age, demonstrating high-quality diffusion MRI data. We find altered diffusion properties consistent with post-mortem changes reported previously. Preliminary voxel-wise and tractography analyses are presented with comparison to age-matched in vivo dHCP data. These results show that high-quality, high-resolution post-mortem data of unfixed tissue can be acquired to explore the developing human brain

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks