Models of gravitational lens candidates from Space Warps CFHTLS

We report modelling follow-up of recently-discovered gravitational-lens candidates in the Canada France Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey. Lens modelling was done by a small group of specially-interested volunteers from the SpaceWarps citizen-science community who originally found the candidate lenses. Models are categorised according to seven diagnostics indicating (a) the image morphology and how clear or indistinct it is, (b) whether the mass map and synthetic lensed image appear to be plausible, and (c) how the lens-model mass compares with the stellar mass and the abundance-matched halo mass. The lensing masses range from ~10^11 Msun to >10^13 Msun. Preliminary estimates of the stellar masses show a smaller spread in stellar mass (except for two lenses): a factor of a few below or above ~10^11 Msun. Therefore, we expect the stellar-to-total mass fraction to decline sharply as lensing mass increases. The most massive system with a convincing model is J1434+522 (SW05). The two low-mass outliers are J0206-095 (SW19) and J2217+015 (SW42); if these two are indeed lenses, they probe an interesting regime of very low star-formation efficiency. Some improvements to the modelling software (SpaghettiLens), and discussion of strategies regarding scaling to future surveys with more and frequent discoveries, are included.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, online supplement table_1.csv contains additional detailed numbers shown in table 1 and figure

Gravitational lens modelling in a citizen science context

We develop a method to enable collaborative modelling of gravitational lenses and lens candidates, that could be used by non-professional lens enthusiasts. It uses an existing free-form modelling program (glass), but enables the input to this code to be provided in a novel way, via a user-generated diagram that is essentially a sketch of an arrival-time surface. We report on an implementation of this method, SpaghettiLens, which has been tested in a modelling challenge using 29 simulated lenses drawn from a larger set created for the Space Warps citizen science strong lens search. We find that volunteers from this online community asserted the image parities and time ordering consistently in some lenses, but made errors in other lenses depending on the image morphology. While errors in image parity and time ordering lead to large errors in the mass distribution, the enclosed mass was found to be more robust: the model-derived Einstein radii found by the volunteers were consistent with those produced by one of the professional team, suggesting that given the appropriate tools, gravitational lens modelling is a data analysis activity that can be crowd-sourced to good effect. Ideas for improvement are discussed, these include (a) overcoming the tendency of the models to be shallower than the correct answer in test cases, leading to systematic overestimation of the Einstein radius by 10 per cent at present, and (b) detailed modelling of arcs.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figure

Gravitational lens modelling in a citizen science context

We develop a method to enable collaborative modelling of gravitational lenses and lens candidates, that could be used by non-professional lens enthusiasts. It uses an existing free-form modelling program (glass), but enables the input to this code to be provided in a novel way, via a user-generated diagram that is essentially a sketch of an arrival-time surface. We report on an implementation of this method, SpaghettiLens, which has been tested in a modelling challenge using 29 simulated lenses drawn from a larger set created for the Space Warps citizen science strong lens search. We find that volunteers from this online community asserted the image parities and time ordering consistently in some lenses, but made errors in other lenses depending on the image morphology. While errors in image parity and time ordering lead to large errors in the mass distribution, the enclosed mass was found to be more robust: the model-derived Einstein radii found by the volunteers were consistent with those produced by one of the professional team, suggesting that given the appropriate tools, gravitational lens modelling is a data analysis activity that can be crowd-sourced to good effect. Ideas for improvement are discussed; these include (a) overcoming the tendency of the models to be shallower than the correct answer in test cases, leading to systematic overestimation of the Einstein radius by 10 per cent at present, and (b) detailed modelling of arc

Space Warps II. New Gravitational Lens Candidates from the CFHTLS Discovered through Citizen Science

We report the discovery of 29 promising (and 59 total) new lens candidates from the CFHT Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) based on about 11 million classifications performed by citizen scientists as part of the first Space Warps lens search. The goal of the blind lens search was to identify lens candidates missed by robots (the RingFinder on galaxy scales and ArcFinder on group/cluster scales) which had been previously used to mine the CFHTLS for lenses. We compare some properties of the samples detected by these algorithms to the Space Warps sample and find them to be broadly similar. The image separation distribution calculated from the Space Warps sample shows that previous constraints on the average density profile of lens galaxies are robust. SpaceWarps recovers about 65% of known lenses, while the new candidates show a richer variety compared to those found by the two robots. This detection rate could be increased to 80% by only using classifications performed by expert volunteers (albeit at the cost of a lower purity), indicating that the training and performance calibration of the citizen scientists is very important for the success of Space Warps. In this work we present the SIMCT pipeline, used for generating in situ a sample of realistic simulated lensed images. This training sample, along with the false positives identified during the search, has a legacy value for testing future lens finding algorithms. We make the pipeline and the training set publicly available.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS accepted, minor to moderate changes in this versio

Space Warps: I. Crowd-sourcing the Discovery of Gravitational Lenses

We describe Space Warps, a novel gravitational lens discovery service that yields samples of high purity and completeness through crowd-sourced visual inspection. Carefully produced colour composite images are displayed to volunteers via a web- based classification interface, which records their estimates of the positions of candidate lensed features. Images of simulated lenses, as well as real images which lack lenses, are inserted into the image stream at random intervals; this training set is used to give the volunteers instantaneous feedback on their performance, as well as to calibrate a model of the system that provides dynamical updates to the probability that a classified image contains a lens. Low probability systems are retired from the site periodically, concentrating the sample towards a set of lens candidates. Having divided 160 square degrees of Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) imaging into some 430,000 overlapping 82 by 82 arcsecond tiles and displaying them on the site, we were joined by around 37,000 volunteers who contributed 11 million image classifications over the course of 8 months. This Stage 1 search reduced the sample to 3381 images containing candidates; these were then refined in Stage 2 to yield a sample that we expect to be over 90% complete and 30% pure, based on our analysis of the volunteers performance on training images. We comment on the scalability of the SpaceWarps system to the wide field survey era, based on our projection that searches of 10$^5$ images could be performed by a crowd of 10$^5$ volunteers in 6 days.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures, MNRAS accepted, minor to moderate changes in this versio

SpaceWarps- II. New gravitational lens candidates from the CFHTLS discovered through citizen science

We report the discovery of 29 promising (and 59 total) new lens candidates from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) based on about 11 million classifications performed by citizen scientists as part of the first SpaceWarps lens search. The goal of the blind lens search was to identify lens candidates missed by robots (the ringfinder on galaxy scales and arcfinder on group/cluster scales) which had been previously used to mine the CFHTLS for lenses. We compare some properties of the samples detected by these algorithms to the SpaceWarps sample and find them to be broadly similar. The image separation distribution calculated from the SpaceWarps sample shows that previous constraints on the average density profile of lens galaxies are robust. SpaceWarps recovers about 65 per cent of known lenses, while the new candidates show a richer variety compared to those found by the two robots. This detection rate could be increased to 80 per cent by only using classifications performed by expert volunteers (albeit at the cost of a lower purity), indicating that the training and performance calibration of the citizen scientists is very important for the success of SpaceWarps. In this work we present the SIMCT pipeline, used for generating in situ a sample of realistic simulated lensed images. This training sample, along with the false positives identified during the search, has a legacy value for testing future lens-finding algorithms. We make the pipeline and the training set publicly availabl

SpaceWarps - I. Crowdsourcing the discovery of gravitational lenses

We describe SpaceWarps, a novel gravitational lens discovery service that yields samples of high purity and completeness through crowdsourced visual inspection. Carefully produced colour composite images are displayed to volunteers via a web-based classification interface, which records their estimates of the positions of candidate lensed features. Images of simulated lenses, as well as real images which lack lenses, are inserted into the image stream at random intervals; this training set is used to give the volunteers instantaneous feedback on their performance, as well as to calibrate a model of the system that provides dynamical updates to the probability that a classified image contains a lens. Low-probability systems are retired from the site periodically, concentrating the sample towards a set of lens candidates. Having divided 160 deg2 of Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey imaging into some 430000 overlapping 82 by 82arcsec tiles and displaying them on the site, we were joined by around 37000 volunteers who contributed 11 million image classifications over the course of eight months. This stage 1 search reduced the sample to 3381 images containing candidates; these were then refined in stage 2 to yield a sample that we expect to be over 90 per cent complete and 30 per cent pure, based on our analysis of the volunteers performance on training images. We comment on the scalability of the SpaceWarps system to the wide field survey era, based on our projection that searches of 105 images could be performed by a crowd of 105 volunteers in 6

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

The 2021 WHO catalogue of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex mutations associated with drug resistance: a genotypic analysis.

Background: Molecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achievement of rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a WHO-endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction. Methods: In this systematic analysis, we used a candidate gene approach to identify mutations associated with resistance or consistent with susceptibility for 13 WHO-endorsed antituberculosis drugs. We collected existing worldwide MTBC whole-genome sequencing data and phenotypic data from academic groups and consortia, reference laboratories, public health organisations, and published literature. We categorised phenotypes as follows: methods and critical concentrations currently endorsed by WHO (category 1); critical concentrations previously endorsed by WHO for those methods (category 2); methods or critical concentrations not currently endorsed by WHO (category 3). For each mutation, we used a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation to compute positive predictive value, and we used Fisher's exact tests to generate odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p values. Mutations were graded as associated with resistance if present in at least five isolates, if the odds ratio was more than 1 with a statistically significant corrected p value, and if the lower bound of the 95% CI on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was greater than 25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation. Findings: We analysed 41 137 MTBC isolates with phenotypic and whole-genome sequencing data from 45 countries. 38 215 MTBC isolates passed quality control steps and were included in the final analysis. 15 667 associations were computed for 13 211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1149 (7·3%) of 15 667 mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107 (0·7%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was more than 80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (91·4%), moxifloxacin (91·6%) and ethambutol (93·3%). Only two resistance mutations were identified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs. Interpretation: We present the first WHO-endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing, which is intended to provide a global standard for resistance interpretation. The existence of this catalogue should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by national tuberculosis programmes. Funding: Unitaid, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research