Using Spatio-temporal Modelling as a Decision Support Tool for Management of a Native Pest Herbivore

Landscape modification can alter the distribution and abundance of wildlife, which can result in irruptions of native species causing significant impacts on economically and ecologically valuable systems. This study investigated the applications of the Spatio- Temporal Animal Reduction (STAR) model, originally designed for the management of feral ungulates, by adapting it for the management of a native pest herbivore (the Tasmanian pademelon, Thylogale billardierii) within an agricultural-forest mosaic, typical of Tasmanian (Australian) agricultural landscapes. Empirical data of habitat and demographic features of a pest population were inputted into STAR to test the cost-effectiveness of three simulated density reduction models. Compared with the projected population growth under no management, simulations demonstrated that low, medium and high density reduction all reduced population abundance over 10 years. Cost increased with the level of population reduction due to increasing difficulty with locating individuals. The revenue gained from a simulated harvest was greatest for medium-intensity density reduction. We propose STAR can be used as a decision support tool to guide situations considering resource availability, browsing intensity and site- specific management objectives. The application of STAR highlights the model’s adaptability across diverse pest populations, landscape features and where there is competition for resources between domestic and native populations

A two-phase model for smoothly joining disparate growth phases in the macropodid Thylogale billardierii

Generally, sigmoid curves are used to describe the growth of animals over their lifetime. However, because growth rates often differ over an animal's lifetime a single curve may not accurately capture the growth. Broken-stick models constrained to pass through a common point have been proposed to describe the different growth phases, but these are often unsatisfactory because essentially there are still two functions that describe the lifetime growth. To provide a single, converged model to age animals with disparate growth phases we developed a smoothly joining two-phase nonlinear function (SJ2P), tailored to provide a more accurate description of lifetime growth of the macropod, the Tasmanian pademelon Thylogale billardierii. The model consists of the Verhulst logistic function, which describes pouch-phase growth--joining smoothly to the Brody function, which describes post-pouch growth. Results from the model demonstrate that male pademelons grew faster and bigger than females. Our approach provides a practical means of ageing wild pademelons for life history studies but given the high variability of the data used to parametrise the second growth phase of the model, the accuracy of ageing of post-weaned animals is low: accuracy might be improved with collection of longitudinal growth data. This study provides a unique, first robust method that can be used to characterise growth over the lifespan of pademelons. The development of this method is relevant to collecting age-specific vital rates from commonly used wildlife management practices to provide crucial insights into the demographic behaviour of animal populations.Financial support was provided by the Tasmanian Community Forest Agreement: Alternatives to 1080 Programme. In-kind support was provided by the University of Tasmania

Chemocoding as an identification tool where morphological- and DNA-based methods fall short:Inga as a case study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordThe need for species identification and taxonomic discovery has led to the development of innovative technologies for large‐scale plant identification. DNA barcoding has been useful, but fails to distinguish among many species in species‐rich plant genera, particularly in tropical regions. Here, we show that chemical fingerprinting, or ‘chemocoding’, has great potential for plant identification in challenging tropical biomes. Using untargeted metabolomics in combination with multivariate analysis, we constructed species‐level fingerprints, which we define as chemocoding. We evaluated the utility of chemocoding with species that were defined morphologically and subject to next‐generation DNA sequencing in the diverse and recently radiated neotropical genus Inga (Leguminosae), both at single study sites and across broad geographic scales. Our results show that chemocoding is a robust method for distinguishing morphologically similar species at a single site and for identifying widespread species across continental‐scale ranges. Given that species are the fundamental unit of analysis for conservation and biodiversity research, the development of accurate identification methods is essential. We suggest that chemocoding will be a valuable additional source of data for a quick identification of plants, especially for groups where other methods fall short

A Two-Phase Model for Smoothly Joining Disparate Growth Phases in the Macropodid Thylogale billardierii

Generally, sigmoid curves are used to describe the growth of animals over their lifetime. However, because growth ratesoften differ over an animal’s lifetime a single curve may not accurately capture the growth. Broken-stick models constrainedto pass through a common point have been proposed to describe the different growth phases, but these are oftenunsatisfactory because essentially there are still two functions that describe the lifetime growth. To provide a single,converged model to age animals with disparate growth phases we developed a smoothly joining two-phase nonlinearfunction (SJ2P), tailored to provide a more accurate description of lifetime growth of the macropod, the Tasmanianpademelon Thylogale billardierii. The model consists of the Verhulst logistic function, which describes pouch-phase growth– joining smoothly to the Brody function, which describes post-pouch growth. Results from the model demonstrate thatmale pademelons grew faster and bigger than females. Our approach provides a practical means of ageing wildpademelons for life history studies but given the high variability of the data used to parametrise the second growth phaseof the model, the accuracy of ageing of post-weaned animals is low: accuracy might be improved with collection oflongitudinal growth data. This study provides a unique, first robust method that can be used to characterise growth overthe lifespan of pademelons. The development of this method is relevant to collecting age-specific vital rates fromcommonly used wildlife management practices to provide crucial insights into the demographic behaviour of animalpopulations

A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect

We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project (k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result (d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring exclusion criteria) found a statistically significant effect (d = 0.08); Bayesian analyses showed that the data were about equally likely under the null and informed-prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants who reported more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation.</p

Many Labs 5:Testing pre-data collection peer review as an intervention to increase replicability

Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3?9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276?3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (?r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00?.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19?.50)

Hungry Grouse in a Warming World: Emerging Risks from Plant Chemical Defenses and Climate Change

Conservation and management of habitat is central to the conservation of grouse. Identifying thresholds of biotic and abiotic risks that may reduce habitat quality is therefore a component of habitat management of grouse. We propose that dietary phytochemicals, specifically plant secondary metabolites (PSMs), represent an ecological risk to grouse, which are not often considered in the management of grouse. Most species of grouse consume PSMs, which have negative consequences at some concentration. Moreover, several studies provide evidence that the risks posed by PSMs will likely increase under projected climate change scenarios. We discuss potential risks of PSMs for grouse and propose theoretical models, which can be used to test current and future physiological, behavioural and ecological risks of PSMs. We propose that dose-response thresholds can be used to predict and monitor the synergistic risks of PSMs and climate change for grouse. We further suggest that identifying dose-response thresholds to PSMs is needed in the management of vertebrate herbivores in general