Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Characteristics and survival for HIV-associated multicentric Castleman disease in Malawi

Introduction: Clinical reports of multicentric Castleman disease (MCD) from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are scarce despite high prevalence of HIV and Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV). Our objective is to describe characteristics and survival for HIV-associated MCD patients in Malawi. To our knowledge, this is the first HIV-associated MCD case series from the region. Methods: We describe HIV-positive patients with MCD in Lilongwe, and compare them to HIV-associated lymph node Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients treated at our centre. All patients were enrolled into a prospective longitudinal cohort study at a national teaching hospital and cancer referral centre serving half of Malawi's 16 million people. We included adult patients≥18 years of age with HIV-associated MCD (n=6), lymph node KS (n=5) or NHL (n=31) enrolled between 1 June 2013 and 31 January 2015. Results and discussion: MCD patients had a median age of 42.4 years (range 37.2–51.8). All had diffuse lymphadenopathy and five had hepatosplenomegaly. Concurrent KS was present for one MCD patient, and four had performance status ≥3. MCD patients had lower median haemoglobin (6.4 g/dL, range 3.6–9.3) than KS (11.0 g/dL, range 9.1–12.0, p=0.011) or NHL (11.2 g/dL, range 4.5–15.1, p=0.0007). Median serum albumin was also lower for MCD (2.1 g/dL, range 1.7–3.2) than KS (3.7 g/dL, range 3.2–3.9, p=0.013) or NHL (3.4 g/dL, range 1.8–4.8, p=0.003). All six MCD patients were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with median CD4 count 208 cells/µL (range 108–1146), and all with HIV RNA <400 copies/mL. Most KS and NHL patients were also on ART, although ART duration was longer for MCD (56.4 months, range 18.2–105.3) than KS (14.2 months, range 6.8–21.9, p=0.039) or NHL (13.8 months, range 0.2–98.8, p=0.017). Survival was poorer for MCD patients than lymph node KS or NHL. Conclusions: HIV-associated MCD occurs in Malawi, is diagnosed late and is associated with high mortality. Improvements in awareness, diagnostic facilities, treatment and supportive care are needed to address this likely under-recognized public health problem in SSA