Complementing CO2 emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare

Abstract. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to reduce global warming in spite of high greenhouse-gas concentrations and to lower the chance of warming-induced tipping points. However, SRM may cause economic damages and its feasibility is still uncertain. To investigate the trade-off between these (economic) gains and damages, we incorporate SRM into a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model and perform the first rigorous cost–benefit analysis of sulfate-based SRM under uncertainty, treating warming-induced climate tipping and SRM failure as stochastic elements. We find that within our model, SRM has the potential to greatly enhance future welfare and merits being taken seriously as a policy option. However, if only SRM and no CO2 abatement is used, global warming is not stabilised and will exceed 2 K. Therefore, even if successful, SRM can not replace but only complement CO2 abatement. The optimal policy combines CO2 abatement and modest SRM and succeeds in keeping global warming below 2 K

In vivo assessment of catheter positioning accuracy and prolonged irradiation time on liver tolerance dose after single-fraction 192Ir high-dose-rate brachytherapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To assess brachytherapy catheter positioning accuracy and to evaluate the effects of prolonged irradiation time on the tolerance dose of normal liver parenchyma following single-fraction irradiation with ¹⁹²Ir.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>Fifty patients with 76 malignant liver tumors treated by computed tomography (CT)-guided high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) were included in the study. The prescribed radiation dose was delivered by 1 - 11 catheters with exposure times in the range of 844 - 4432 seconds. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) datasets for assessing irradiation effects on normal liver tissue, edema, and hepatocyte dysfunction, obtained 6 and 12 weeks after HDR-BT, were merged with 3D dosimetry data. The isodose of the treatment plan covering the same volume as the irradiation effect was taken as a surrogate for the liver tissue tolerance dose. Catheter positioning accuracy was assessed by calculating the shift between the 3D center coordinates of the irradiation effect volume and the tolerance dose volume for 38 irradiation effects in 30 patients induced by catheters implanted in nearly parallel arrangement. Effects of prolonged irradiation were assessed in areas where the irradiation effect volume and tolerance dose volume did not overlap (mismatch areas) by using a catheter contribution index. This index was calculated for 48 irradiation effects induced by at least two catheters in 44 patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Positioning accuracy of the brachytherapy catheters was 5-6 mm. The orthogonal and axial shifts between the center coordinates of the irradiation effect volume and the tolerance dose volume in relation to the direction vector of catheter implantation were highly correlated and in first approximation identically in the T1-w and T2-w MRI sequences (<it>p </it>= 0.003 and <it>p </it>< 0.001, respectively), as were the shifts between 6 and 12 weeks examinations (<it>p </it>= 0.001 and <it>p </it>= 0.004, respectively). There was a significant shift of the irradiation effect towards the catheter entry site compared with the planned dose distribution (<it>p </it>< 0.005). Prolonged treatment time increases the normal tissue tolerance dose. Here, the catheter contribution indices indicated a lower tolerance dose of the liver parenchyma in areas with prolonged irradiation (<it>p </it>< 0.005).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Positioning accuracy of brachytherapy catheters is sufficient for clinical practice. Reduced tolerance dose in areas exposed to prolonged irradiation is contradictory to results published in the current literature. Effects of prolonged dose administration on the liver tolerance dose for treatment times of up to 60 minutes per HDR-BT session are not pronounced compared to effects of positioning accuracy of the brachytherapy catheters and are therefore of minor importance in treatment planning.</p

The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0

This work documents ICON-ESM 1.0, the first version of a coupled model based 19 on the ICON framework 20 • Performance of ICON-ESM is assessed by means of CMIP6 DECK experiments 21 at standard CMIP-type resolution 22 • ICON-ESM reproduces the observed temperature evolution. Biases in clouds, winds, 23 sea-ice, and ocean properties are larger than in MPI-ESM. Abstract 25 This work documents the ICON-Earth System Model (ICON-ESM V1.0), the first cou-26 pled model based on the ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) framework with its un-27 structured, icosahedral grid concept. The ICON-A atmosphere uses a nonhydrostatic dy-28 namical core and the ocean model ICON-O builds on the same ICON infrastructure, but 29 applies the Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximation and includes a sea-ice model. The 30 ICON-Land module provides a new framework for the modelling of land processes and 31 the terrestrial carbon cycle. The oceanic carbon cycle and biogeochemistry are repre-32 sented by the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle module. We describe the tuning and spin-33 up of a base-line version at a resolution typical for models participating in the Coupled 34 Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The performance of ICON-ESM is assessed by 35 means of a set of standard CMIP6 simulations. Achievements are well-balanced top-of-36 atmosphere radiation, stable key climate quantities in the control simulation, and a good 37 representation of the historical surface temperature evolution. The model has overall bi-38 ases, which are comparable to those of other CMIP models, but ICON-ESM performs 39 less well than its predecessor, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Problem-40 atic biases are diagnosed in ICON-ESM in the vertical cloud distribution and the mean 41 zonal wind field. In the ocean, sub-surface temperature and salinity biases are of con-42 cern as is a too strong seasonal cycle of the sea-ice cover in both hemispheres. ICON-43 ESM V1.0 serves as a basis for further developments that will take advantage of ICON-44 specific properties such as spatially varying resolution, and configurations at very high 45 resolution. 46 Plain Language Summary 47 ICON-ESM is a completely new coupled climate and earth system model that ap-48 plies novel design principles and numerical techniques. The atmosphere model applies 49 a non-hydrostatic dynamical core, both atmosphere and ocean models apply unstruc-50 tured meshes, and the model is adapted for high-performance computing systems. This 51 article describes how the component models for atmosphere, land, and ocean are cou-52 pled together and how we achieve a stable climate by setting certain tuning parameters 53 and performing sensitivity experiments. We evaluate the performance of our new model 54 by running a set of experiments under pre-industrial and historical climate conditions 55 as well as a set of idealized greenhouse-gas-increase experiments. These experiments were 56 designed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and allow us to com-57 pare the results to those from other CMIP models and the predecessor of our model, the 58 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. While we diagnose overall 59 satisfactory performance, we find that ICON-ESM features somewhat larger biases in 60 several quantities compared to its predecessor at comparable grid resolution. We empha-61 size that the present configuration serves as a basis from where future development steps 62 will open up new perspectives in earth system modellin

Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0

The world's most complex climate models are currently running a range of experiments as part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Added to the output from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the total data volume will be in the order of 20PB. Here, we present a dataset of annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean means derived from a selection of experiments of key interest to climate data analysts and reduced complexity climate modellers. The derived dataset is a key part of validating, calibrating and developing reduced complexity climate models against the behaviour of more physically complete models. In addition to its use for reduced complexity climate modellers, we aim to make our data accessible to other research communities. We facilitate this in a number of ways. Firstly, given the focus on annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean mean quantities, our dataset is orders of magnitude smaller than the source data and hence does not require specialized ‘big data’ expertise. Secondly, again because of its smaller size, we are able to offer our dataset in a text-based format, greatly reducing the computational expertise required to work with CMIP output. Thirdly, we enable data provenance and integrity control by tracking all source metadata and providing tools which check whether a dataset has been retracted, that is identified as erroneous. The resulting dataset is updated as new CMIP6 results become available and we provide a stable access point to allow automated downloads. Along with our accompanying website (cmip6.science.unimelb.edu.au), we believe this dataset provides a unique community resource, as well as allowing non-specialists to access CMIP data in a new, user-friendly way