Spacelab Flight Operations

This paper will cover the primary activities involved in conducting Spacelab flight operations. Spacelab flight operations are characterized by a unique partnership between the operators of the Space Transportation System (STS) and the Mission Management organization. This partnership involves both the activities of the flight control personnel and the flight crew and must exist as an integrated team in order to be able to successfully complete a Spacelab flight. This paper will discuss an overview of how this partnership functions from the initial planning phase though the actual flight conduct. The responsibilities and functions of the flight crew members will be discussed as well as the make up of the flight control team. A typical flight scenario describing the basic operation of the Spacelab will be covered. A description of the Mission Control Center (MCC) and Payload Operations Control Center-(POCC) capabilities wiH be given

Potential of Pan-Tuberculosis Treatment to Drive Emergence of Novel Resistance.

New tuberculosis (TB) drugs with little existing antimicrobial resistance enable a pan-TB treatment regimen, intended for universal use without prior drug-susceptibility testing. However, widespread use of such a regimen could contribute to an increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance, potentially rendering the pan-TB regimen ineffective or driving clinically problematic patterns of resistance. We developed a model of multiple sequential TB patient cohorts to compare treatment outcomes between continued use of current standards of care (guided by rifampin-susceptibility testing) and a hypothetical pan-TB approach. A pan-TB regimen that met current target profiles was likely to initially outperform the standard of care; however, a rising prevalence of transmitted resistance to component drugs could make underperformance likely among subsequent cohorts. Although the pan-TB approach led to an increased prevalence of resistance to novel drugs, it was unlikely to cause accumulation of concurrent resistance to novel drugs and current first-line drugs

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic costs. METHODS: We estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa from 2016 to 2035, in line with the End TB Strategy. Using modelled incidence and mortality for tuberculosis and patient-incurred cost estimates, we investigated three intervention scenarios: improved treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis; improved treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; and expansion of access to tuberculosis care through intensified case finding (South Africa only). We defined tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs as the sum of direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs to patients exceeding 20% of total annual household income. Intervention effects were quantified as changes in the number of households incurring catastrophic costs and were assessed by quintiles of household income. FINDINGS: In India and South Africa, improvements in treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis could reduce the number of households incurring tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs by 6-19%. The benefits would be greatest for the poorest households. In South Africa, expanded access to care could decrease household tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs by 5-20%, but gains would be seen largely after 5-10 years. INTERPRETATION: Aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa could lessen, although not eliminate, the catastrophic financial burden on affected households. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Adjusting for Information Content When Comparing Forecast Performance

Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the forecaster's ability simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that evaluations that do not adjust for the differences in information content may be misleading. In addition, the method is applied on a real-world data set of 10 Swedish forecasters for the period 1999-2015. The results show that the ranking of the forecasters is affected by the proposed adjustment

Suppression of star formation in early-type galaxies by feedback from supermassive black holes

Detailed high-resolution observations of the innermost regions of nearby galaxies have revealed the presence of supermassive black holes1. These black holes may interact with their host galaxies by means of 'feedback' in the form of energy and material jets; this feedback affects the evolution of the host and gives rise to observed relations between the black hole and the host. Here we report observations of the ultraviolet emissions of massive early-type galaxies. We derive an empirical relation for a critical black-hole mass (as a function of velocity dispersion) above which the outflows from these black holes suppress star formation in their hosts by heating and expelling all available cold gas. Supermassive black holes are negligible in mass compared to their hosts but nevertheless seem to play a critical role in the star formation history of galaxies.Comment: Nature, in press. 27 pages, 4 Figures. Article & supplements with high-resolution figures can be downloaded at: http://www-astro.physics.ox.ac.uk/~kevins/PAPERS/AGN_feedback.pd

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Are All Placebo Effects Equal? Placebo Pills, Sham Acupuncture, Cue Conditioning and Their Association

Placebo treatments and healing rituals have been used to treat pain throughout history. The present within-subject crossover study examines the variability in individual responses to placebo treatment with verbal suggestion and visual cue conditioning by investigating whether responses to different types of placebo treatment, as well as conditioning responses, correlate with one another. Secondarily, this study also examines whether responses to sham acupuncture correlate with responses to genuine acupuncture. Healthy subjects were recruited to participate in two sequential experiments. Experiment one is a five-session crossover study. In each session, subjects received one of four treatments: placebo pills (described as Tylenol), sham acupuncture, genuine acupuncture, or no treatment rest control condition. Before and after each treatment, paired with a verbal suggestion of positive effect, each subject's pain threshold, pain tolerance, and pain ratings to calibrated heat pain were measured. At least 14 days after completing experiment one, all subjects were invited to participate in experiment two, during which their analgesic responses to conditioned visual cues were tested. Forty-eight healthy subjects completed experiment one, and 45 completed experiment two. The results showed significantly different effects of genuine acupuncture, placebo pill and rest control on pain threshold. There was no significant association between placebo pills, sham acupuncture and cue conditioning effects, indicating that individuals may respond to unique healing rituals in different ways. This outcome suggests that placebo response may be a complex behavioral phenomenon that has properties that comprise a state, rather than a trait characteristic. This could explain the difficulty of detecting a signature for “placebo responders.” However, a significant association was found between the genuine and sham acupuncture treatments, implying that the non-specific effects of acupuncture may contribute to the analgesic effect observed in genuine acupuncture analgesia.National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (U.S.) (R01AT005280

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS: We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the$/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia:$1425, India: $1489, Vietnam:$1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from$237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to$749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to$241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization