Control theory for principled heap sizing

We propose a new, principled approach to adaptive heap sizing based on control theory. We review current state-of-the-art heap sizing mechanisms, as deployed in Jikes RVM and HotSpot. We then formulate heap sizing as a control problem, apply and tune a standard controller algorithm, and evaluate its performance on a set of well-known benchmarks. We find our controller adapts the heap size more responsively than existing mechanisms. This responsiveness allows tighter virtual machine memory footprints while preserving target application throughput, which is ideal for both embedded and utility computing domains. In short, we argue that formal, systematic approaches to memory management should be replacing ad-hoc heuristics as the discipline matures. Control-theoretic heap sizing is one such systematic approach

Delineating Operating and Support Costs in Aircraft Platforms

As the costs of Department of Defense (DoD) Weapon Systems increase, the ability to estimate the Operating and Support (O&S) costs accurately for the various weapon systems has become vital to long-term affordability. This research focuses on the O&S costs of the Air Force fixed-wing arsenal (i.e., platforms) for 1996–2016. First, the Cost Element Structure (CES) for 52 aircraft platforms and seven operational mission categories is analyzed to derive the descriptive statistics per aircraft category through examination of actual historical costs. Second, testing to identify statistical differences within the O&S CES construct across various Air Force aircraft categories is conducted. DoD cost estimators and stakeholders alike can benefit from this research by utilizing the results as cross-checks for predicting O&S costs through analogous-based estimates and as an in-depth analysis into categories of CES costs being incurred

CE20006

The 2020 Irish Anglerfish and Megrim Survey (IAMS) took place from 23rd February to 18th March (area 7bcjk) and 12-21st April 2020 (area 6a) on RV Celtic Explorer. The main objective of the survey is to obtain biomass and abundance indices for anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and L. budegassa) and megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis and L. boscii) in areas 6a (south of 58°N) and 7 (west of 8°W). Secondary objectives are to collect data on the distribution, relative abundance and biology of other commercially exploited species. For the second year, additional sampling took place in deep water (up to 1,500m) in order to monitor the recovery of exploited deep-water species following the decline of the deep-water fisheries in Irish waters. The IAMS survey is coordinated with the Scottish Anglerfish and Megrim Survey (SIAMISS) and uses the same gear and fishing practices

Curvature perturbation in multi-field inflation with non-minimal coupling

In this paper we discuss a multi-field model of inflation in which generally all fields are non-minimally coupled to the Ricci scalar and have non-canonical kinetic terms. The background evolution and first-order perturbations for the model are evaluated in both the Jordan and Einstein frames, and the respective curvature perturbations compared. We confirm that they are indeed not the same - unlike in the single-field case - and also that the difference is a direct consequence of the isocurvature perturbations inherent to multi-field models. This result leads us to conclude that the notion of adiabaticity is not invariant under conformal transformations. Using a two-field example we show that even if in one frame the evolution is adiabatic, meaning that the curvature perturbation is conserved on super-horizon scales, in general in the other frame isocurvature perturbations continue to source the curvature perturbation. We also find that it is possible to realise a particular model in which curvature perturbations in both frames are conserved but with each being of different magnitude. These examples highlight that the curvature perturbation itself, despite being gauge-invariant, does not correspond directly to an observable. The non-equivalence of the two curvature perturbations would also be important when considering the addition of Standard Model matter into the system.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, references added, typos corrected, version to appear in JCA

Cerebrospinal fluid cortisol levels are higher in patients with delirium versus controls

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High plasma cortisol levels can cause acute cognitive and neuropsychiatric dysfunction, and have been linked with delirium. CSF cortisol levels more closely reflect brain exposure to cortisol, but there are no studies of CSF cortisol levels in delirium. In this pilot study we acquired CSF specimens at the onset of spinal anaesthesia in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery, and compared CSF and plasma cortisol levels in delirium cases versus controls.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Delirium assessments were performed the evening before or on the morning of operation with a standard battery comprising cognitive tests, mental status assessments and the Confusion Assessment Method. CSF and plasma samples were obtained at the onset of the operation and cortisol levels measured. Twenty patients (15 female, 5 male) aged 62 - 93 years were studied. Seven patients were diagnosed with delirium. The mean ages of cases (81.4 (SD 7.2)) and controls (80.5 (SD 8.7)) were not significantly different (p = 0.88). The median (interquartile range) CSF cortisol levels were significantly higher in cases (63.9 (40.4-102.1) nmol/L) than controls (31.4 (21.7-43.3) nmol/L; Mann-Whitney U, p = 0.029). The median (interquartile range) of plasma cortisol was also significantly higher in cases (968.8 (886.2-1394.4) nmol/L, than controls (809.4 (544.0-986.4) nmol/L; Mann Whitney U, p = 0.036).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These findings support an association between higher CSF cortisol levels and delirium. This extends previous findings linking higher plasma cortisol and delirium, and suggests that more definitive studies of the relationship between cortisol levels and delirium are now required.</p

Application of Al-Cu-W-Ta graded density impactors in dynamic ramp compression experiments

Graded density impactors (GDIs) are used to dynamically compress materials to extreme conditions. Two modifications to a previously developed Mg-Cu-W GDI are made in this work before using it in a dynamic compression experiment: Mg is replaced with Al and a Ta disk is glued to the back. The Mg phase is replaced by Al because FCC Al remains solid to higher pressure along its Hugoniot compared to Mg. The addition of the Ta disk creates a constant particle velocity regime and facilitates a definition of peak pressure states. Microstructure analysis, profilometry, and ultrasonic C-scans of the Al-Cu-W GDI all confirm excellent uniformity. We evaluated signal variation in the radial direction of a dynamically compressed Al-LiF bilayer target to evaluate the contribution of spatial nonuniformity to errors. Velocity traces from five photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) probes located at different radial distances from the center of the target varied at most by 1.1% with a root mean square of 0.3% during the compression ramp, demonstrating low PDV measurement error over a relatively large experimental area. The experimental PDV data also agrees well with 1D simulations that use inputs from predictive characterization models developed for the material properties resulting from tape casting, laminating, and powder consolidation processes. Low measurement error during quasi-isentropic compression, leading to better precision, ensures a robust platform to reach extreme compression and low-temperature recovery states and facilitates discovery via synthesis, quenching, and preservation of new high-pressure phases

Application of Al-Cu-W-Ta graded density impactors in dynamic ramp compression experiments

Graded density impactors (GDIs) are used to dynamically compress materials to extreme conditions. Two modifications to a previously developed Mg-Cu-W GDI are made in this work before using it in a dynamic compression experiment: Mg is replaced with Al and a Ta disk is glued to the back. The Mg phase is replaced by Al because FCC Al remains solid to higher pressure along its Hugoniot compared to Mg. The addition of the Ta disk creates a constant particle velocity regime and facilitates a definition of peak pressure states. Microstructure analysis, profilometry, and ultrasonic C-scans of the Al-Cu-W GDI all confirm excellent uniformity. We evaluated signal variation in the radial direction of a dynamically compressed Al-LiF bilayer target to evaluate the contribution of spatial nonuniformity to errors. Velocity traces from five photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) probes located at different radial distances from the center of the target varied at most by 1.1% with a root mean square of 0.3% during the compression ramp, demonstrating low PDV measurement error over a relatively large experimental area. The experimental PDV data also agrees well with 1D simulations that use inputs from predictive characterization models developed for the material properties resulting from tape casting, laminating, and powder consolidation processes. Low measurement error during quasi-isentropic compression, leading to better precision, ensures a robust platform to reach extreme compression and low-temperature recovery states and facilitates discovery via synthesis, quenching, and preservation of new high-pressure phases

Chandra X-Ray Observatory Observations of the Globular Cluster M71

We observed the nearby, low-density globular cluster M71 (NGC 6838) with the Chandra X-ray Observatory to study its faint X-ray populations. Five X-ray sources were found inside the cluster core radius, including the known eclipsing binary millisecond pulsar (MSP) PSR J1953+1846A. The X-ray light curve of the source coincident with this MSP shows marginal evidence for periodicity at the binary period of 4.2 h. Its hard X-ray spectrum and luminosity resemble those of other eclipsing binary MSPs in 47 Tuc, suggesting a similar shock origin of the X-ray emission. A further 24 X-ray sources were found within the half-mass radius, reaching to a limiting luminosity of 1.5 10^30 erg/s (0.3-8 keV). From a radial distribution analysis, we find that 18+/-6 of these 29 sources are associated with M71, somewhat more than predicted, and that 11+/-6 are background sources, both galactic and extragalactic. M71 appears to have more X-ray sources between L_X=10^30--10^31 erg/s than expected by extrapolating from other studied clusters using either mass or collision frequency. We explore the spectra and variability of these sources, and describe the results of ground-based optical counterpart searches.Comment: 36 pages including 7 figures and 8 tables, accepted by The Astrophysical Journa

Best practices for the provision of prior information for Bayesian stock assessment

This manual represents a review of the potential sources and methods to be applied when providing prior information to Bayesian stock assessments and marine risk analysis. The manual is compiled as a product of the EC Framework 7 ECOKNOWS project (www.ecoknows.eu). The manual begins by introducing the basic concepts of Bayesian inference and the role of prior information in the inference. Bayesian analysis is a mathematical formalization of a sequential learning process in a probabilistic rationale. Prior information (also called ”prior knowledge”, ”prior belief”, or simply a ”prior”) refers to any existing relevant knowledge available before the analysis of the newest observations (data) and the information included in them. Prior information is input to a Bayesian statistical analysis in the form of a probability distribution (a prior distribution) that summarizes beliefs about the parameter concerned in terms of relative support for different values. Apart from specifying probable parameter values, prior information also defines how the data are related to the phenomenon being studied, i.e. the model structure. Prior information should reflect the different degrees of knowledge about different parameters and the interrelationships among them. Different sources of prior information are described as well as the particularities important for their successful utilization. The sources of prior information are classified into four main categories: (i) primary data, (ii) literature, (iii) online databases, and (iv) experts. This categorization is somewhat synthetic, but is useful for structuring the process of deriving a prior and for acknowledging different aspects of it. A hierarchy is proposed in which sources of prior information are ranked according to their proximity to the primary observations, so that use of raw data is preferred where possible. This hierarchy is reflected in the types of methods that might be suitable – for example, hierarchical analysis and meta-analysis approaches are powerful, but typically require larger numbers of observations than other methods. In establishing an informative prior distribution for a variable or parameter from ancillary raw data, several steps should be followed. These include the choice of the frequency distribution of observations which also determines the shape of prior distribution, the choice of the way in which a dataset is used to construct a prior, and the consideration related to whether one or several datasets are used. Explicitly modelling correlations between parameters in a hierarchical model can allow more effective use of the available information or more knowledge with the same data. Checking the literature is advised as the next approach. Stock assessment would gain much from the inclusion of prior information derived from the literature and from literature compilers such as FishBase (www.fishbase.org), especially in data-limited situations. The reader is guided through the process of obtaining priors for length–weight, growth, and mortality parameters from FishBase. Expert opinion lends itself to data-limited situations and can be used even in cases where observations are not available. Several expert elicitation tools are introduced for guiding experts through the process of expressing their beliefs and for extracting numerical priors about variables of interest, such as stock–recruitment dynamics, natural mortality, maturation, and the selectivity of fishing gears. Elicitation of parameter values is not the only task where experts play an important role; they also can describe the process to be modelled as a whole. Information sources and methods are not mutually exclusive, so some combination may be used in deriving a prior distribution. Whichever source(s) and method(s) are chosen, it is important to remember that the same data should not be used twice. If the 2 | ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 328 plan is to use the data in the analysis for which the prior distribution is needed, then the same data cannot be used in formulating the prior. The techniques studied and proposed in this manual can be further elaborated and fine-tuned. New developments in technology can potentially be explored to find novel ways of forming prior distributions from different sources of information. Future research efforts should also be targeted at the philosophy and practices of model building based on existing prior information. Stock assessments that explicitly account for model uncertainty are still rare, and improving the methodology in this direction is an important avenue for future research. More research is also needed to make Bayesian analysis of non-parametric models more accessible in practice. Since Bayesian stock assessment models (like all other assessment models) are made from existing knowledge held by human beings, prior distributions for parameters and model structures may play a key role in the processes of collectively building and reviewing those models with stakeholders. Research on the theory and practice of these processes will be needed in the future

Revisiting the SAR of the antischistosomal aryl hydantoin (Ro 13-3978)

The aryl hydantoin 1 (Ro 13-3978) was identified in the early 1980s as a promising antischistosomal lead compound. However, this series of aryl hydantoins produced antiandrogenic side effects in the host, a not unexpected outcome given their close structural similarity to the antiandrogenic drug nilutamide. Building on the known SAR of this compound series, we now describe a number of analogs of 1 designed to maximize structural diversity guided by incorporation of substructures and functional groups known to diminish ligand-androgen receptor interactions. These analogs had calculated polar surface area (PSA), measured LogD7.4, aqueous kinetic solubility, and estimated plasma protein binding values in ranges predictive of good ADME profiles. The principal SAR insight was that the hydantoin core of 1 is required for high antischistosomal activity. We identified several compounds with high antischistosomal efficacy that were less antiandrogenic than 1. These data provide direction for the ongoing optimization of antischistosomal hydantoins