Terminal valuations, growth rates and the implied cost of capital

This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe develop a model based on the notion that prices lead earnings, allowing for a simultaneous estimation of the implied growth rate and the cost of equity capital for US industrial sectors. The major difference between our approach and that in prior literature is that ours avoids the necessity to make assumptions about terminal values and consequently about future growth rates. In fact, growth rates are an endogenous variable, which is estimated simultaneously with the implied cost of equity capital. Since we require only 1-year-ahead forecasts of earnings and no assumptions about dividend payouts, our methodology allows us to estimate ex ante aggregate growth and risk premia over a larger sample of firms than has previously been possible. Our estimate of the risk premium being between 3.1 and 3.9 % is at the lower end of recent estimates, reflecting the inclusion of these short-lived companies. Our estimate of the long run growth is from 4.2 to 4.7 %

Spectrum, risk factors and outcomes of neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19: a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study

SARS-CoV-2 is associated with new-onset neurological and psychiatric conditions. Detailed clinical data, including factors associated with recovery, are lacking, hampering prediction modelling and targeted therapeutic interventions. In a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study of adult hospitalized patients during the first COVID-19 wave, with multi-professional input from general and sub-specialty neurologists, psychiatrists, stroke physicians, and intensivists, we captured detailed data on demographics, risk factors, pre-COVID-19 Rockwood frailty score, comorbidities, neurological presentation and outcome. A priori clinical case definitions were used, with cross-specialty independent adjudication for discrepant cases. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using demographic and clinical variables, to determine the factors associated with outcome. A total of 267 cases were included. Cerebrovascular events were most frequently reported (131, 49%), followed by other central disorders (95, 36%) including delirium (28, 11%), central inflammatory (25, 9%), psychiatric (25, 9%), and other encephalopathies (17, 7%), including a severe encephalopathy (n = 13) not meeting delirium criteria; and peripheral nerve disorders (41, 15%). Those with the severe encephalopathy, in comparison to delirium, were younger, had higher rates of admission to intensive care and a longer duration of ventilation. Compared to normative data during the equivalent time period prior to the pandemic, cases of stroke in association with COVID-19 were younger and had a greater number of conventional, modifiable cerebrovascular risk factors. Twenty-seven per cent of strokes occurred in patients 60 years old, the younger stroke patients presented with delayed onset from respiratory symptoms, higher rates of multi-vessel occlusion (31%) and systemic thrombotic events. Clinical outcomes varied between disease groups, with cerebrovascular disease conferring the worst prognosis, but this effect was less marked than the pre-morbid factors of older age and a higher pre-COVID-19 frailty score, and a high admission white cell count, which were independently associated with a poor outcome. In summary, this study describes the spectrum of neurological and psychiatric conditions associated with COVID-19. In addition, we identify a severe COVID-19 encephalopathy atypical for delirium, and a phenotype of COVID-19 associated stroke in younger adults with a tendency for multiple infarcts and systemic thromboses. These clinical data will be useful to inform mechanistic studies and stratification of patients in clinical trials

Spectrum, risk factors and outcomes of neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19: a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study.

SARS-CoV-2 is associated with new-onset neurological and psychiatric conditions. Detailed clinical data, including factors associated with recovery, are lacking, hampering prediction modelling and targeted therapeutic interventions. In a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study of adult hospitalized patients during the first COVID-19 wave, with multi-professional input from general and sub-specialty neurologists, psychiatrists, stroke physicians, and intensivists, we captured detailed data on demographics, risk factors, pre-COVID-19 Rockwood frailty score, comorbidities, neurological presentation and outcome. A priori clinical case definitions were used, with cross-specialty independent adjudication for discrepant cases. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using demographic and clinical variables, to determine the factors associated with outcome. A total of 267 cases were included. Cerebrovascular events were most frequently reported (131, 49%), followed by other central disorders (95, 36%) including delirium (28, 11%), central inflammatory (25, 9%), psychiatric (25, 9%), and other encephalopathies (17, 7%), including a severe encephalopathy (n = 13) not meeting delirium criteria; and peripheral nerve disorders (41, 15%). Those with the severe encephalopathy, in comparison to delirium, were younger, had higher rates of admission to intensive care and a longer duration of ventilation. Compared to normative data during the equivalent time period prior to the pandemic, cases of stroke in association with COVID-19 were younger and had a greater number of conventional, modifiable cerebrovascular risk factors. Twenty-seven per cent of strokes occurred in patients 60 years old, the younger stroke patients presented with delayed onset from respiratory symptoms, higher rates of multi-vessel occlusion (31%) and systemic thrombotic events. Clinical outcomes varied between disease groups, with cerebrovascular disease conferring the worst prognosis, but this effect was less marked than the pre-morbid factors of older age and a higher pre-COVID-19 frailty score, and a high admission white cell count, which were independently associated with a poor outcome. In summary, this study describes the spectrum of neurological and psychiatric conditions associated with COVID-19. In addition, we identify a severe COVID-19 encephalopathy atypical for delirium, and a phenotype of COVID-19 associated stroke in younger adults with a tendency for multiple infarcts and systemic thromboses. These clinical data will be useful to inform mechanistic studies and stratification of patients in clinical trials

Interleukin 10 inhibits pro-inflammatory cytokine responses and killing of Burkholderia pseudomallei.

Melioidosis, caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is endemic in northeastern Thailand and Northern Australia. Severe septicemic melioidosis is associated with high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and is correlated with poor clinical outcomes. IL-10 is an immunoregulatory cytokine, which in other infections can control the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines, but its role in melioidosis has not been addressed. Here, whole blood of healthy seropositive individuals (n = 75), living in N. E. Thailand was co-cultured with B. pseudomallei and production of IL-10 and IFN-γ detected and the cellular sources identified. CD3- CD14+ monocytes were the main source of IL-10. Neutralization of IL-10 increased IFN-γ, IL-6 and TNF-α production and improved bacteria killing. IFN-γ production and microbicidal activity were impaired in individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM). In contrast, IL-10 production was unimpaired in individuals with DM, resulting in an IL-10 dominant cytokine balance. Neutralization of IL-10 restored the IFN-γ response of individuals with DM to similar levels observed in healthy individuals and improved killing of B. pseudomallei in vitro. These results demonstrate that monocyte derived IL-10 acts to inhibit potentially protective cell mediated immune responses against B. pseudomallei, but may also moderate the pathological effects of excessive cytokine production during sepsis

Association between Acquired Uniparental Disomy and Homozygous Mutations and HER2/ER/PR Status in Breast Cancer

Background: Genetic alterations in cellular signaling networks are a hallmark of cancer, however, effective methods to discover them are lacking. A novel form of abnormality called acquired uniparental disomy (aUPD) was recently found to pinpoint the region of mutated genes in various cancers, thereby identifying the region for next-generation sequencing. Methods/Principal Findings: We retrieved large genomic data sets from the Gene Expression Omnibus database to perform genome-wide analysis of aUPD in breast tumor samples and cell lines using approaches that can reliably detect aUPD. Aupd was identified in 52.29% of the tumor samples. The most frequent aUPD regions were located at chromosomes 2q, 3p, 5q, 9p, 9q, 10q, 11q, 13q, 14q and 17q. We evaluated the data for any correlation between the most frequent aUPD regions and HER2/neu, ER, and PR status, and found a statistically significant correlation between the recurrent regions of aUPD and triple negative (TN) breast cancers. aUPD at chromosome 17q (VEZF1, WNT3), 3p (SUMF1, GRM7), 9p (MTAP, NFIB) and 11q (CASP1, CASP4, CASP5) are predictors for TN. The frequency of aUPD was found to be significantly higher in TN breast cancer cases compared to HER2/neu-positive and/or ER or PR-positive cases. Furthermore, using previously published mutation data, we found TP53 homozygously mutated in cell lines having aUPD in that locus. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that aUPD is a common and non-random molecular feature of breast cancer that is most prominent in triple negative cases. As aUPD regions are different among the main pathological subtypes, specific aUPD regions may aid the sub-classification of breast cancer. In addition, we provide statistical support using TP53 as an example that identifying aUPD regions can be an effective approach in finding aberrant genes. We thus conclu

Osteopontin Impairs Host Defense during Established Gram-Negative Sepsis Caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei (Melioidosis)

Melioidosis is a severe tropical disease caused by infection with the bacterium Burkholderia (B.) pseudomallei. In northeast Thailand infection with this bacterium is the major cause of community-acquired septicemia with a mortality rate up to 40%. Extending the knowledge on the mechanisms of host defense against B. pseudomallei infection would be helpful to improve treatment of this severe illness. Osteopontin (OPN) is a cytokine that is involved in several immune responses that occur during bacterial infection. In this study, we investigated levels of OPN in patients with melioidosis, and studied the function of OPN during experimental melioidosis in mice. We found that OPN concentrations were elevated in patients with severe melioidosis, and that high OPN concentrations are associated with poor outcome in patients with melioidosis. In experimental melioidosis in mice plasma and lung OPN levels were also increased. Moreover, mice with melioidosis that were deficient for OPN demonstrated reduced bacterial numbers in their lungs, diminished pulmonary tissue injury, and decreased neutrophil infiltration into the lungs during established melioidosis. Moreover, these mice displayed a delayed mortality as compared to control mice. In conclusion, sustained production of OPN impairs host defense during melioidosis

Genetic variant predictors of gene expression provide new insight into risk of colorectal cancer

Genome-wide association studies have reported 56 independently associated colorectal cancer (CRC) risk variants, most of which are non-coding and believed to exert their effects by modulating gene expression. The computational method PrediXcan uses cis-regulatory variant predictors to impute expression and perform gene-level association tests in GWAS without directly measured transcriptomes. In this study, we used reference datasets from colon (n = 169) and whole blood (n = 922) transcriptomes to test CRC association with genetically determined expression levels in a genome-wide analysis of 12,186 cases and 14,718 controls. Three novel associations were discovered from colon transverse models at FDR ≤ 0.2 and further evaluated in an independent replication including 32,825 cases and 39,933 controls. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, we found statistically significant associations using colon transcriptome models with TRIM4 (discovery P = 2.2 × 10- 4, replication P = 0.01), and PYGL (discovery P = 2.3 × 10- 4, replication P = 6.7 × 10- 4). Interestingly, both genes encode proteins that influence redox homeostasis and are related to cellular metabolic reprogramming in tumors, implicating a novel CRC pathway linked to cell growth and proliferation. Defining CRC risk regions as one megabase up- and downstream of one of the 56 independent risk variants, we defined 44 non-overlapping CRC-risk regions. Among these risk regions, we identified genes associated with CRC (P < 0.05) in 34/44 CRC-risk regions. Importantly, CRC association was found for two genes in the previously reported 2q25 locus, CXCR1 and CXCR2, which are potential cancer therapeutic targets. These findings provide strong candidate genes to prioritize for subsequent laboratory follow-up of GWAS loci. This study is the first to implement PrediXcan in a large colorectal cancer study and findings highlight the utility of integrating transcriptome data in GWAS for discovery of, and biological insight into, risk loci