Impacts of European livestock production: nitrogen, sulphur, phosphorus and greenhouse gas emissions, land-use, water eutrophication and biodiversity

Livestock production systems currently occupy around 28% of the land surface of the European Union (equivalent to 65% of the agricultural land). In conjunction with other human activities, livestock production systems affect water, air and soil quality, global climate and biodiversity, altering the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon. Here, we quantify the contribution of European livestock production to these major impacts. For each environmental effect, the contribution of livestock is expressed as shares of the emitted compounds and land used, as compared to the whole agricultural sector. The results show that the livestock sector contributes significantly to agricultural environmental impacts. This contribution is 78% for terrestrial biodiversity loss, 80% for soil acidification and air pollution (ammonia and nitrogen oxides emissions), 81% for global warming, and 73% for water pollution (both N and P). The agriculture sector itself is one of the major contributors to these environmental impacts, ranging between 12% for global warming and 59% for N water quality impact. Significant progress in mitigating these environmental impacts in Europe will only be possible through a combination of technological measures reducing livestock emissions, improved food choices and reduced food waste of European citizens

Eco-agri-food systems: today's realities and tomorrow's challenges

Provides an overview of the diversity of agriculture and food systems, each with different contributions to global food security, impacts on the natural resource base and ways of working through food system supply chains. We describe “eco-agri-food systems” and further identify their many manifestations through a review of typologies. We identify challenges ahead with existing systems due to prevailing economic and political pressures resulting in patterns of invisible flows and impacts across global food systems. We describe pathways to ensure sustainability by securing the benefits from working with, rather than against, natural systems and ecosystem processes and the challenges for farmers, communities and societies to reorient food value chains and build resilience in eco-agri-food systemsFil: Pengue, Walter Alberto. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gemmill Herren, Barbara. World Agroforestry Centre; KeniaFil: Balázs, Bálint. Environmental Social Science Research Group; HungríaFil: Ortega, Enrique. Universidade Estadual de Campinas; BrasilFil: Acevedo, Francisca. National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity,; MéxicoFil: Diaz, Daniel N,. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; ArgentinaFil: Díaz de Astarloa, Diego. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; ArgentinaFil: Fernandez, Rosa. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; ArgentinaFil: Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones En Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural. - Universidad Nacional de Rio Negro. Instituto de Investigaciones En Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural; ArgentinaFil: Giampietro, Mario. Universidad de Barcelona; EspañaFil: Goldberg, Andrea. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; ArgentinaFil: Khosla, Ashok. Development Alternatives; IndiaFil: Westhoek, Henk. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Water, Agriculture and Food; Países Bajo

Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

peer-reviewedGlobal pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970–2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970–2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970–2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption

Research and innovation as a catalyst for food system transformation

Background: Food systems are associated with severe and persistent problems worldwide. Governance approaches aiming to foster sustainable transformation of food systems face several challenges due to the complex nature of food systems. Scope and approach: In this commentary we argue that addressing these governance challenges requires the development and adoption of novel research and innovation (R&I) approaches that will provide evidence to inform food system transformation and will serve as catalysts for change. We first elaborate on the complexity of food systems (transformation) and stress the need to move beyond traditional linear R&I approaches to be able to respond to persistent problems that affect food systems. Though integrated transdisciplinary approaches are promising, current R&I systems do not sufficiently support such endeavors. As such, we argue, we need strategies that trigger a double transformation - of food systems and of their R&I systems. Key Findings and Conclusions: Seizing the opportunities to transform R&I systems has implications for how research is done - pointing to the need for competence development among researchers, policy makers and society in general - and requires specific governance interventions that stimulate a systemic approach. Such interventions should foster transdisciplinary and transformative research agendas that stimulate portfolios of projects that will reinforce one another, and stimulate innovative experiments to shape conditions for systemic change. In short, a thorough rethinking of the role of R&I as well as how it is funded is a crucial step towards the development of the integrative policies that are necessary to engender systemic change - in the food system and beyond

Options to reduce the environmental effects of livestock production - Comparison of two economic models

Global livestock production accounts for about 80% of global land use, is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss, and is responsible for about 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions. These impacts are likely to become more pressing as a consequence of rising demands for meat, eggs and dairy products. Theoretically, these impacts could be reduced by making the global food system more efficient or by dietary changes, as recent studies suggest. However, multiple feedbacks exist in the agricultural system, which may reduce the effectiveness of any promising change. Estimation of these effects is highly uncertain and depends on the tools applied. In this study, we used two different economic models (IMPACT and LEITAP), coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE, to examine different options to reduce the environmental impact of agriculture: dietary changes (less meat and dairy), increased production efficiency, and reduced food waste. In a detailed model comparison, we assessed the model results on consumption, agricultural production, commodity prices, land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions, and identified feedbacks in the global agricultural system. In both models, all options resulted in a reduction in agricultural land use and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as in agricultural commodity prices. The model results show that for most options less than the theoretical environmental gains would actually be achieved, due to price feedbacks leading to increased consumption and less intensive production. On the other hand, larger than expected effects could occur as a result of reduced European consumption.However, large differences were found between the IMPACT and LEITAP model calculations. We attribute these differences to model design and parameterisation, discuss implications and sketch ways forward to improve studies of future dynamics in the global agricultural system. The most pertinent discrepancies between the model results were related to the models' implementation of international trade, determining to what extent current trade patterns are retained, the assumptions on technological change, which have major implications for future price developments, and the treatment of agricultural expansion, which strongly affects how agricultural land use reacts under certain policy options. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to compare different economic models in a consistent scenario study, and the results indicate the need for model improvements and show that data harmonisation and more extensive model comparisons are needed

Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow

Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow