Forecasting Causal Effects of Interventions versus Predicting Future Outcomes

The present article provides a didactic presentation and extension of selected features of Pearl’s DAG-based approach to causal inference for researchers familiar with structural equation modeling. We illustrate key concepts using a cross-lagged panel design. We distinguish between (a) forecasts of the value of an outcome variable after an intervention and (b) predictions of future values of an outcome variable. We consider the mean level and variance of the outcome variable as well as the probability that the outcome will fall within an acceptable range. We extend this basic approach to include additive random effects, allowing us to distinguish between average effects of interventions and person-specific effects of interventions. We derive optimal person-specific treatment levels and show that optimal treatment levels may differ across individuals. We present worked examples using simulated data based on the results of a prior empirical study of the relationship between blood insulin and glucose levels.Peer Reviewe

Effect of Grade Retention in First Grade on Psychosocial Outcomes

In a 4-year longitudinal study, the authors investigated effects of retention in first grade on children’s externalizing and internalizing behaviors; social acceptance; and behavioral, cognitive, and affective engagement. From a large multiethnic sample (n = 784) of children below the median on literacy at school entrance, 124 retained children were matched with 251 promoted children on the basis of propensity scores (probability of being retained in first grade estimated from 72 baseline variables). Relative to promoted children, retained children were found to benefit from retention in both the short and longer terms with respect to decreased teacher-rated hyperactivity, decreased peer-rated sadness and withdrawal, and increased teacher-rated behavioral engagement. Retained children had a short-term increase in mean peer-rated liking and school belongingness relative to promoted children, but this advantage showed a substantial decrease in the longer term. Retention had a positive short-term effect on children’s perceived school belonging and a positive longer term effect on perceived academic self-efficacy. Retention may bestow advantages in the short-term, but longer term detrimental effects on social acceptance may lead to the documented longer term negative effects of retention

Mind the context - The relevance of personality for face-to-face and computer-mediated communication

A large body of research has examined the link between personality and face-to-face (FtF) communication knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics (KSAOs). With the rise of digital media, text-based computer-mediated (CM) communication KSAOs have gained increasing attention. We conducted two studies to investigate how personality relates to KSAOs in the different contexts of FtF and CM communication. Contrasting perspectives hypothesize that the results in the FtF and CM contexts would be very similar or distinctly different. In Study 1 (n = 454), an online panel study, the Big Five personality dimensions were assessed and their relationships to FtF and CM communication KSAOs were investigated. Structural equation models and relative weight regression analyses showed that these personality dimensions, mostly extraversion and neuroticism, explained more variance in FtF as compared to CM communication KSAOs. Study 2 (n = 173), conducted in a laboratory context, showed similar results compared to Study 1. In addition, when the Big Five personality dimensions were assessed with a CM frame of reference, more variance was explained in CM than in FtF communication KSAOs. These results point to the importance of considering context effects in communication and in personality research: FtF and CM communication KSAOs need to be differentiated. If not properly contextualized, the relevance of personality and communication competencies in predicting criteria may be underestimated due to contextual mismatches

Adaptive Learning Pedagogy in UDL and Multi-Modal Training

Currently, most learning methods are based on classroom teaching through unidirectional communication using boards or slides. However, the Universal Design for Learning (UDL) asserts that the students can increase their performance if the instructors can provide the students with diversified information representation, expression, and engagement means. Although UDL minimizes the mismatch between the teaching and learning styles, we lack the detailed methods to implement the UDL and its associated multi-modal training methods in the context of air traffic control candidates and/or technical operators. We propose an approach that adapts the Index of Learning Styles (ILS) based on four categories: perception, input, processing, and understanding. Tailored to air traffic control candidates, we show how the adapted ILS framework can be used to (1) map the UDL principles (associated with multi-modal training methods) with the ILS outcomes using specific examples, (2) assess the teaching and learning styles of instructors and students, and (3) provide possible approaches to address any mismatch and/or ways to enhance the teaching materials. The developed approach will be used as a framework to investigate whether and how we would be able to enhance the air traffic control candidates’ performances at the FAA academy

Adaptive Learning Pedagogy of Universal Design for Learning (UDL) for Multimodal Training

Traditionally, students or trainees usually receive training through a unidirectional instructional approach that can lack interactive activities or through a single material source in classrooms. Therefore, it is possible that some trainees might encounter a sink-or-swim situation if they are not able to understand the materials presented during classroom lectures nor execute correct procedures during laboratory sessions with time-intensive training. To address this issue, the Universal Design for Learning (UDL) asserts that trainees can increase their performance if instructors can provide the trainees with diversified means of information representation, expression opportunities, and engagement means. However, we lack the framework on how to adapt and integrate the process of evaluating the trainees’ learning styles with the UDL principles, especially in the context of time-intensive tasks such as air traffic control training. In this article, we propose an adapted framework that (1) utilizes the Index of Learning Styles (ILS) based on categories such as perception, input, processing, and understanding, (2) maps the UDL methods with the ILS outcomes, and (3) provides possible approaches to address any issues with the teaching materials. The developed approach might be used to investigate whether and how we could enhance the air traffic trainees’ performances at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Academy with minimum need to elongate the training time. The proposed approaches were benchmarked with a small group of qualified Aviation students at the University of Oklahoma who are preparing for the FAA training program to see whether we could find ways to support their learning styles given the time and resource constraints. This preliminary research provides a foundation to improve our approaches when we investigate the learning styles of the trainees’ at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Academy in the near future

Harnessing behavioural science in public health campaigns to maintain 'social distancing' in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: key principles.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), like Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), is an infection arising from a coronavirus. The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in recent times in terms of the global spread of infection and the resultant morbidity, mortality and burden on health systems. In the absence of a vaccine, reducing transmission of the COVID-19 virus requires rapid and extensive behaviour change to enact protective behaviours and ‘social distancing’ across whole populations. Although ‘social distancing’ is the current most used term, it actually refers to maintaining physical separation by reducing the number of times people come into close contact with each other across whole populations. Social distancing applies regardless of infection status and is thus distinctive from quarantine or the isolation of those with suspected or diagnosed infection, which is also an important element of infection control. Governments across the world are implementing a diverse range of interventions to promote adherence to social distancing measures, which include elements of education, persuasion, incentivisation, coercion, environmental restructuring, restriction and enablement. Interventions have been developed rapidly and could not be informed directly by evidence, given the novelty of the virus and rapid spread of the pandemic. Despite this lack of direct evidence, a body of behavioural science exists which can usefully inform the current interventions and promote adherence to these restrictive measures. This body of science has been developed through the study of other infections (including other coronaviruses such as MERS and SARS), other areas of health and other areas of behaviour. This body of science suggests a number of principles which could ensure that interventions are more likely to achieve their intended outcomes and less likely to generate unintended harmful consequences. As a group of behavioural and social scientists who have shared their advice with government through the UK’s Government Office for Science, the researchers of this paper have collaborated to develop a series of principles to inform interventions to promote whole population adherence to social distancing measures. These were informed by members’ expertise and knowledge of existing theory and evidence, rather than by any formal review of the literature

Distinct Roles of Mus81, Yen1, Slx1-Slx4, and Rad1 Nucleases in the Repair of Replication-Born Double-Strand Breaks by Sister Chromatid Exchange

Most spontaneous DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) arise during replication and are repaired by homologous recombination (HR) with the sister chromatid. Many proteins participate in HR, but it is often difficult to determine their in vivo functions due to the existence of alternative pathways. Here we take advantage of an in vivo assay to assess repair of a specific replication-born DSB by sister chromatid recombination (SCR). We analyzed the functional relevance of four structure-selective endonucleases (SSEs), Yen1, Mus81-Mms4, Slx1-Slx4, and Rad1, on SCR in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Physical and genetic analyses showed that ablation of any of these SSEs leads to a specific SCR decrease that is not observed in general HR. Our work suggests that Yen1, Mus81-Mms4, Slx4, and Rad1, but not Slx1, function independently in the cleavage of intercrossed DNA structures to reconsti-tute broken replication forks via HR with the sister chromatid. These unique effects, which have not been detected in other stud-ies unless double mutant combinations were used, indicate the formation of distinct alternatives for the repair of replication- born DSBs that require specific SSEs.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación FU2010-16372, CSD2007-015Junta de Andalucía BIO102 and CVI4567National Institutes of Health GM5801

Stunning and Right Ventricular Dysfunction Is Induced by Coronary Balloon Occlusion and Rapid Pacing in Humans: Insights From Right Ventricular Conductance Catheter Studies

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine whether right ventricular stunning could be detected after supply (during coronary balloon occlusion [BO]) and supply/demand ischemia (induced by rapid pacing [RP] during transcatheter aortic valve replacement) in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten subjects with single-vessel right coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with normal ventricular function were studied in the BO group. Ten subjects undergoing transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement were studied in the RP group. In both, a conductance catheter was placed into the right ventricle, and pressure volume loops were recorded at baseline and for intervals over 15 minutes after a low-pressure BO for 1 minute or a cumulative duration of RP for up to 1 minute. Ischemia-induced diastolic dysfunction was seen 1 minute after RP (end-diastolic pressure [mm Hg]: 8.1±4.2 versus 12.1±4.1, P<0.001) and BO (end-diastolic pressure [mm Hg]: 8.1±4.0 versus 8.7±4.0, P=0.03). Impairment of systolic and diastolic function after BO remained at 15-minutes recovery (ejection fraction [%]: 55.7±9.0 versus 47.8±6.3, P<0.01; end-diastolic pressure [mm Hg]: 8.1±4.0 versus 9.2±3.9, P<0.01). Persistent diastolic dysfunction was also evident in the RP group at 15-minutes recovery (end-diastolic pressure [mm Hg]: 8.1±4.1 versus 9.9±4.4, P=0.03) and there was also sustained impairment of load-independent indices of systolic function at 15 minutes after RP (end-systolic elastance and ventriculo-arterial coupling [mm Hg/mL]: 1.25±0.31 versus 0.85±0.43, P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: RP and right coronary artery balloon occlusion both cause ischemic right ventricular dysfunction with stunning observed later during the procedure. This may have intraoperative implications in patients without right ventricular functional reserve