Modeling the Progression of Discrete Paired Longitudinal Data.

It is our intention to derive a methodology for which to model discrete paired longitudinal data. Through the use of transition matrices and maximum likelihood estimation techniques by means of software, we develop a way to model the progression of such data. We provide an example by applying this method to the Wisconsin Epidemiological Study of Diabetic Retinopathy data set. The data set is comprised of individuals, all diabetics, who have had their eyes examined for diabetic retinopathy. The eyes are treated as paired data, and we have the results of the examination at the four unequally spaced time points spanning over a fourteen year duration

Modeling of Debonding and Crack Propagation in Fibrous Composites Using a Discontinuous Galerkin Approach

A recently proposed Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method for modeling debonding and fracture within the context of the finite element method is investigated for problems relating to fiber reinforced composites, namely fiber-matrix interfacial debonding which progresses to matrix fracture. The results are then compared against an existing intrinsic cohesive zone method and a hybrid Discontinuous Galerkin method. The results show that the method can eliminate the problem of artificial compliance that is associated with intrinsic cohesive zone models. Eliminating this stiffness has the positive effect of removing user-defined numerical parameters that are not actually present in the physical system. A key contribution of this work is the demonstration that the DG elements can be inserted between all solid elements in the model, allowing general crack propagation without imposing a predefined surface and without compromising numerical stability

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a multifaceted podiatry intervention for falls prevention in older people : a multicentre cohort randomised controlled trial (the REducing Falls with ORthoses and a Multifaceted podiatry intervention trial)

BACKGROUND: Falls are a serious cause of morbidity and cost to individuals and society. Evidence suggests that foot problems and inappropriate footwear may increase the risk of falling. Podiatric interventions could help reduce falls; however, there is limited evidence regarding their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a multifaceted podiatry intervention for preventing falls in community-dwelling older people at risk of falling, relative to usual care. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentred, cohort randomised controlled trial with an economic evaluation and qualitative study. SETTING: Nine NHS trusts in the UK and one site in Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 1010 participants aged ≥ 65 years were randomised (intervention, n = 493; usual care, n = 517) via a secure, remote service. Blinding was not possible. INTERVENTIONS: All participants received a falls prevention leaflet and routine care from their podiatrist and general practitioner. The intervention also consisted of footwear advice, footwear provision if required, foot orthoses and foot- and ankle-strengthening exercises. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the incidence rate of falls per participant in the 12 months following randomisation. The secondary outcomes included the proportion of fallers and multiple fallers, time to first fall, fear of falling, fracture rate, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The primary analysis consisted of 484 (98.2%) intervention and 507 (98.1%) usual-care participants. There was a non-statistically significant reduction in the incidence rate of falls in the intervention group [adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73 to 1.05; p = 0.16]. The proportion of participants experiencing a fall was lower (50% vs. 55%, adjusted odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.00; p = 0.05). No differences were observed in key secondary outcomes. No serious, unexpected and related adverse events were reported. The intervention costs £252.17 more per participant (95% CI -£69.48 to £589.38) than usual care, was marginally more beneficial in terms of HRQoL measured via the EuroQoL-5 Dimensions [mean quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) difference 0.0129, 95% CI -0.0050 to 0.0314 QALYs] and had a 65% probability of being cost-effective at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold of £30,000 per QALY gained. The intervention was generally acceptable to podiatrists and trial participants. LIMITATIONS: Owing to the difficulty in calculating a sample size for a count outcome, the sample size was based on detecting a difference in the proportion of participants experiencing at least one fall, and not the primary outcome. We are therefore unable to confirm if the trial was sufficiently powered for the primary outcome. The findings are not generalisable to patients who are not receiving podiatry care. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was safe and potentially effective. Although the primary outcome measure did not reach significance, a lower fall rate was observed in the intervention group. The reduction in the proportion of older adults who experienced a fall was of borderline statistical significance. The economic evaluation suggests that the intervention could be cost-effective. FUTURE WORK: Further research could examine whether or not the intervention could be delivered in group sessions, by physiotherapists, or in high-risk patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68240461. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Principles for transformative ocean governance

With a focus on oceans, we collaborated across ecological, social and legal disciplines to respond to the United Nations call for transformation in the ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’. We developed a set of 13 principles that strategically and critically connect transformative ocean research to transformative ocean governance (complementing the UN Decade for Ocean Science). We used a rigorous, iterative and transparent consensus-building approach to define the principles, which can interact in supporting, neutral or sometimes conflicting ways. We recommend that the principles could be applied as a comprehensive set and discuss how to learn from their interactions, particularly those that reveal hidden tensions. The principles can bring and keep together partnerships for innovative ocean action. This action must respond to the many calls to reform current ocean-use practices which are based on economic growth models that have perpetuated inequities and fuelled conflict and environmental decline

Tissue eosinophilia: a morphologic marker for assessing stromal invasion in laryngeal squamous neoplasms

BACKGROUND: The assessment of tumor invasion of underlying benign stroma in neoplastic squamous proliferation of the larynx may pose a diagnostic challenge, particularly in small biopsy specimens that are frequently tangentially sectioned. We studied whether thresholds of an eosinophilic response to laryngeal squamous neoplasms provides an adjunctive histologic criterion for determining the presence of invasion. METHODS: Eighty-seven(n = 87) cases of invasive squamous cell carcinoma and preinvasive squamous neoplasia were evaluated. In each case, the number of eosinophils per high power field(eosinophils/hpf), and per 10 hpf in the tissue adjacent to the neoplastic epithelium, were counted and tabulated. For statistical purposes, the elevated eosinophils were defined and categorized as: focally and moderately elevated (5–9 eos/hpf), focally and markedly increased(>10/hpf), diffusely and moderately elevated(5–19 eos/10hpf), and diffusely and markedly increased (>20/10hpf). RESULTS: In the invasive carcinoma, eosinophil counts were elevated focally and /or diffusely, more frequently seen than in non-invasive neoplastic lesions. The increased eosinophil counts, specifically >10hpf, and >20/10hpf, were all statistically significantly associated with stromal invasion. Greater than 10 eosinophils/hpf and/or >20 eosinophils/10hpf had highest predictive power, with a sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of 82%, 93%, 96% and 80%, 100% and 100%, respectively. Virtually, greater than 20 eosinophils/10 hpf was diagnostic for tumor invasion in our series. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests for the first time that the elevated eosinophil count in squamous neoplasia of the larynx is a morphologic feature associated with tumor invasion. When the number of infiltrating eosinophils exceeds 10/hpf and or >20/10 hpf in a laryngeal biopsy with squamous neoplasia, it represents an indicator for the possibility of tumor invasion. Similarly, the presence of eosinophils meeting these thresholds in an excisional specimen should prompt a thorough evaluation for invasiveness, when evidence of invasion is absent, or when invasion is suspected by conventional criteria in the initial sections

Cohort Randomised Controlled Trial of a Multifaceted Podiatry Intervention for the Prevention of Falls in Older People (The REFORM Trial)

BACKGROUND: Falls are a major cause of morbidity among older people. A multifaceted podiatry intervention may reduce the risk of falling. This study evaluated such an intervention. DESIGN: Pragmatic cohort randomised controlled trial in England and Ireland. 1010 participants were randomised (493 to the Intervention group and 517 to Usual Care) to either: a podiatry intervention, including foot and ankle exercises, foot orthoses and, if required, new footwear, and a falls prevention leaflet or usual podiatry treatment plus a falls prevention leaflet. The primary outcome was the incidence rate of self-reported falls per participant in the 12 months following randomisation. Secondary outcomes included: proportion of fallers and those reporting multiple falls, time to first fall, fear of falling, Frenchay Activities Index, Geriatric Depression Scale, foot pain, health related quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: In the primary analysis were 484 (98.2%) intervention and 507 (98.1%) control participants. There was a small, non statistically significant reduction in the incidence rate of falls in the intervention group (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.05, p = 0.16). The proportion of participants experiencing a fall was lower (49.7 vs 54.9%, adjusted odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.00, p = 0.05) as was the proportion experiencing two or more falls (27.6% vs 34.6%, adjusted odds ratio 0.69, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.90, p = 0.01). There was an increase (p = 0.02) in foot pain for the intervention group. There were no statistically significant differences in other outcomes. The intervention was more costly but marginally more beneficial in terms of health-related quality of life (mean quality adjusted life year (QALY) difference 0.0129, 95% CI -0.0050 to 0.0314) and had a 65% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £30,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: There was a small reduction in falls. The intervention may be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN68240461

Principles for transformative ocean governance

With a focus on oceans, we collaborated across ecological, social and legal disciplines to respond to the United Nations call for transformation in the ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’. We developed a set of 13 principles that strategically and critically connect transformative ocean research to transformative ocean governance (complementing the UN Decade for Ocean Science). We used a rigorous, iterative and transparent consensus-building approach to define the principles, which can interact in supporting, neutral or sometimes conflicting ways. We recommend that the principles could be applied as a comprehensive set and discuss how to learn from their interactions, particularly those that reveal hidden tensions. The principles can bring and keep together partnerships for innovative ocean action. This action must respond to the many calls to reform current ocean-use practices which are based on economic growth models that have perpetuated inequities and fuelled conflict and environmental decline

Medial longitudinal arch development of school children : The College of Podiatry Annual Conference 2015: meeting abstracts

Background Foot structure is often classified into flat foot, neutral and high arch type based on the variability of the Medial Longitudinal Arch (MLA). To date, the literature provided contrasting evidence on the age when MLA development stabilises in children. The influence of footwear on MLA development is also unknown. Aim This study aims to (i) clarify whether the MLA is still changing in children from age 7 to 9 years old and (ii) explore the relationship between footwear usage and MLA development, using a longitudinal approach. Methods We evaluated the MLA of 111 healthy school children [age = 6.9 (0.3) years] using three parameters [arch index (AI), midfoot peak pressure (PP) and maximum force (MF: % of body weight)] extracted from dynamic foot loading measurements at baseline, 10-month and 22-month follow-up. Information on the type of footwear worn was collected using survey question. Linear mixed modelling was used to test for differences in the MLA over time. Results Insignificant changes in all MLA parameters were observed over time [AI: P = .15; PP: P = .84; MF: P = .91]. When gender was considered, the AI of boys decreased with age [P = .02]. Boys also displayed a flatter MLA than girls at age 6.9 years [AI: mean difference = 0.02 (0.01, 0.04); P = .02]. At baseline, subjects who wore close-toe shoes displayed the lowest MLA overall [AI/PP/MF: P < .05]. Subjects who used slippers when commencing footwear use experienced higher PP than those who wore sandals [mean difference = 31.60 (1.44, 61.75) kPa; post-hoc P = .04]. Discussion and conclusion Our findings suggested that the MLA of children remained stable from 7 to 9 years old, while gender and the type of footwear worn during childhood may influence MLA development. Clinicians may choose to commence therapy when a child presents with painful flexible flat foot at age 7 years, and may discourage younger children from wearing slippers when they commence using footwear