Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog and a longer instrumental and historical catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and trustworthy, we used small earthquakes m>2.95 to illuminate active fault structures and likely future epicenters. By calibrating the model on two catalogs of different duration to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain) of predictability incurred when only a short but recent data record is available. Both forecasts, scaled to five and ten years, were submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California, and, with over half of the five-year experiment over, the forecast performs better than its competitors.Comment: revised manuscript. 22 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

The 3.1 micrometer ice band in infrared reflection nebulae

Recent observations show that infrared reflection nebulae are common phenomena in star forming regions. Extensive observations were made of two nearby infrared reflection nebulae, Orin Molecular Cloud 2 IRS1 (OMC-2/IRS1) and Cepheus A IRS6a (Cep-A/IRS6a). Mie scattering models of ice coated grains were used to study the constraints on the properties and locations of grains that could produce a feature similar to that observed in OMC-2 and Cep-A. It was concluded that scattering by ice particles alone could not be responsible for the 3.1 micron feature observed in infrared reflection nebulae

Infrared reflection nebulae in Orion molecular cloud 2

New obervations of Orion Molecular Cloud-2 have been made from 1-100 microns using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility and the Kuiper Airborne Observatory. An extensive program of polarimetry, photometry and spectrophotometry has shown that the extended emission regions associated with two of the previously known near infrared sources, IRS1 and IRS4, are infrared reflection nebulae, and that the compact sources IRS1 and IRS4 are the main luminosity sources in the cloud. The constraints from the far infrared observations and an analysis of the scattered light from the IRS1 nebula show that OMC-2/IRS1 can be characterized by L less than or equal to 500 Solar luminosities and T approx. 1000 K. The near infrared (1-5) micron albedo of the grains in the IRS1 nebula is greater than 0.08

Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay, the Inverted Hierarchy and Precision Determination of theta(12)

Ruling out the inverted neutrino hierarchy with neutrinoless double beta decay experiments is possible if a limit on the effective mass below the minimal theoretically possible value is reached. We stress that this lower limit depends strongly on the value of the solar neutrino mixing angle: it introduces an uncertainty of a factor of 2 within its current 3 sigma range. If an experiment is not background-free, a factor of two in effective mass corresponds to a combined factor of 16 improvement for the experimental parameters running time, detector mass, background level and energy resolution. Therefore, a more precise determination of theta(12) is crucial for the interpretation of experimental results and the evaluation of the potential and requirements for future experiments. We give the required half-lifes to exclude (and touch) the inverted hierarchy regime for all double beta decay isotopes with a Q-value above 2 MeV. The nuclear matrix elements from 6 different groups and, if available, their errors are used and compared. We carefully put the calculations on equal footing in what regards various convention issues. We also use our compilation of matrix elements to give the reachable values of the effective mass for a given half-life value.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figures. v2: error corrected (misprint in paper we took a value from), slightly modifying the result

Common Warm Dust Temperatures Around Main-sequence Stars

We compare the properties of warm dust emission from a sample of main-sequence A-type stars (B8-A7) to those of dust around solar-type stars (F5-K0) with similar Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph/MIPS data and similar ages. Both samples include stars with sources with infrared spectral energy distributions that show evidence of multiple components. Over the range of stellar types considered, we obtain nearly the same characteristic dust temperatures (~190 K and ~60 K for the inner and outer dust components, respectively)—slightly above the ice evaporation temperature for the inner belts. The warm inner dust temperature is readily explained if populations of small grains are being released by sublimation of ice from icy planetesimals. Evaporation of low-eccentricity icy bodies at ~150 K can deposit particles into an inner/warm belt, where the small grains are heated to T_(dust)~ 190 K. Alternatively, enhanced collisional processing of an asteroid belt-like system of parent planetesimals just interior to the snow line may account for the observed uniformity in dust temperature. The similarity in temperature of the warmer dust across our B8-K0 stellar sample strongly suggests that dust-producing planetesimals are not found at similar radial locations around all stars, but that dust production is favored at a characteristic temperature horizon

A Uniform Contribution of Core-Collapse and Type Ia Supernovae to the Chemical Enrichment Pattern in the Outskirts of the Virgo Cluster

We present the first measurements of the abundances of $\alpha$-elements (Mg, Si, and S) extending out to beyond the virial radius of a cluster of galaxies. Our results, based on Suzaku Key Project observations of the Virgo Cluster, show that the chemical composition of the intra-cluster medium is consistent with being constant on large scales, with a flat distribution of the Si/Fe, S/Fe, and Mg/Fe ratios as a function of radius and azimuth out to 1.4 Mpc (1.3 $r_{200}$). Chemical enrichment of the intergalactic medium due solely to core collapse supernovae (SNcc) is excluded with very high significance; instead, the measured metal abundance ratios are generally consistent with the Solar value. The uniform metal abundance ratios observed today are likely the result of an early phase of enrichment and mixing, with both SNcc and type Ia supernovae (SNIa) contributing to the metal budget during the period of peak star formation activity at redshifts of 2-3. We estimate the ratio between the number of SNIa and the total number of supernovae enriching the intergalactic medium to be between 12-37%, broadly consistent with the metal abundance patterns in our own Galaxy or with the SNIa contribution estimated for the cluster cores.Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ