Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target

We examine the effects of endogenously determined realignment expectations in a model of a target zone with sluggish price adjustment. We allow these expectations to be based on a policy rule that generates an increasing probability of realignment as output moves away from full employment. We find that for realistic parameter values, even relatively small misalignments of the currency band lead to strongly skewed conditional distributions for the nominal exchange rate, thus generating pressures for realignment. We show that the reason for this is that the speed of adjustment in the absence of realignments is rather slow. Further, we find that the existence of an equilibrium path for the exchange rate depends on the responsiveness of realignment expectations to economic fundamentals. Paradoxically, higher credibility may increase the probability that a target zone will collapse. This feature of the model provides a possible explanation for the crisis within the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS. A policy of monetary accommodation to real shocks can alleviate the problem but severely constrains a country?s ability to pursue counterinflationary measures within the band.Credit ; Foreign exchange rates

Coalbed Methane and Public Wildlands: How Much and at What Cost?

19 pages (includes color illustrations and maps). Contains references

Coalbed Methane and Public Wildlands: How Much and at What Cost?

19 pages (includes color illustrations and maps). Contains references

Menschenrechtsklagen gegen deutsche Unternehmen

Die Implementierung internationaler Menschenrechtsbindung von Wirtschaftsunternehmen stellt das Privatrecht vor bedeutende, bislang weitgehend unbewältigte Herausforderungen. Der Beitrag umreißt zunächst die zentrale Rolle, die dem Privatrecht bei der Menschenrechtsdurchsetzung zukommt. Darauf aufbauend stellt er die wesentlichen existierenden Durchsetzungsmechanismen vor und setzt sich für eine Kombination aus Deliktsorganisationshaftung und Deliktsdurchgriffshaftung ein. Flankierend befürwortet er für ein Bestimmungsrecht des Geschädigten, bei Menschenrechtsklagen am Sitz einer Obergesellschaft das Recht des Handlungsortes als anwendbares Deliktsrecht zu wählen

'The Ghosts of Roller Disco', a Choreographed, Interactive Performance for Robotic Roller Skates

The project investigates how interactions with complex (biologically inspired swarming) behaviors of multiple robots are understood by human participants within a performative and dramaturgical system. Nonanthropomorphic robots in the form of roller skates are used in innovative ways by creating social formations from their movements, for example a leader and followers in a conga line. Synchronized audio signals and speech-like sonic structures are used in innovative ways by influencing and engaging the participant's interactions with the robots. Localization data of the robots in space is mapped to control the surround sound and lighting within the space. This is used to enhance audience immersion and engagement within the interactive performance work

Der internationale Anwendungsbereich der Geschlechterquote für Großunternehmen

Das von der Bundesregierung beschlossene Gesetz für die gleichberechtigte Teilhabe von Frauen und Männern an Führungspositionen in der Privatwirtschaft vom 06.03.2015 statuiert im Kern eine 30%-Geschlechterquote für den Aufsichtsrat in der Aktiengesellschaft sowie für den Verwaltungsrat in der monistischen Societas Europaea. Der Beitrag beleuchtet den internationalen Anwendungsbereich der Quotenregelung und hält dafür, dass die 30%-Regel auch auf Auslandsgesellschaften mit hinreichendem Inlandsbezug angewendet werden kann

Higher sun exposure in the first trimester is associated with reduced preterm birth:a Scottish population cohort study using linked maternity and meteorological records

Background: Preterm birth (birth at <37 weeks gestation) is the leading cause of death in children under 5-years-old, and prevention is a global public health issue. Seasonal patterns of preterm birth have been reported, but factors underlying this have been poorly described. Sun exposure is an important environmental variable that has risks and benefits for human health, but the effects of sun exposure on pregnancy duration and preterm birth are unknown.Objectives: To determine the association between available sun exposure and preterm birth.Methods: We performed a population-based data-linkage study of 556,376 singleton births (in 397,370 mothers) at or after 24 weeks gestation, in Scotland between 2000 and 2010. Maternity records were linked to available sun exposure from meteorological records, by postcode. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between available sunshine and preterm birth at <37 weeks gestation. Exploratory analyses included a subgroup analysis of spontaneous and indicated preterm births and a sibling analysis in sib pairs discordant for preterm birth.Results: The rate of preterm birth was 6% (32,958/553,791 live births). Increased available sun exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy was associated with a reduced risk of preterm birth, with evidence of a dose-response. Compared with the lowest quartile of sun exposure, the highest quartile of sun exposure was associated with a reduced odds ratio (OR) of preterm birth of 0.90 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.88–0.94 p < 0.01) on univariable analysis and OR of 0.91 (95% CI 0.87, 0.93 p < 0.01) after adjustment for second trimester sunlight exposure, parity, maternal age, smoking status, and deprivation category. No association was seen between preterm birth and second trimester available sun exposure or combined first and second trimester exposure. Similar patterns were seen on sibling analysis and within both the indicated and spontaneous preterm subgroups.Discussion: Available sun exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with a protective effect on preterm birth <37 weeks gestation. This opens up new mechanisms, and potential therapeutic pathways, for preterm birth prevention

The effect of ultraviolet radiation on birth weights and gestational length in a scottish birth cohort

ABSTRACT Objectives Outcomes at birth such as prematurity and birthweight are important determinants of later life health and social outcomes including education attainment, cognitive and behavioural development and a large number of health outcomes. Recently, it has become clear that characteristics of the physical environment, including air pollution, plays an important role in mediating outcomes of pregnancy. Vitamin D deficiency from lack of sunlight has also shown associations with pregnancy outcomes but this has not been replicated in intervention studies of vitamin D supplementation. Recent clinical evidence has pointed to a sunlight pathway that is independent of vitamin D, which instead mediates blood pressure through the production of Nitric Oxides in the skin from exposure to the UVA component of sunlight. This pathway might explain the lack of association with vitamin D supplementation and provides a plausible pathway for direct effects of sunlight exposure for pregnancy outcomes. In this study, we examined the effect of exposure to sunlight during pregnancy hypothesising that higher levels of exposure might reduce risks of premature birth and low birthweight. Approach We used routinely collected maternity health data covering all births in Scotland in the period 2000-2010 (~ 550000 births). Using the mothers residential postcode at birth we attached estimates of UV exposure for each trimester of pregnancy based on a combination of MET office spatially detailed sun hours data and satellite derived solar insolation data. We modelled the effect of UV exposure for birthweight and risk of preterm birth with adjustment for confounding variables including smoking, parity and maternal stature. Sensitivity analysis using sibling pairs with discordant UV exposures was also explored to test the robustness of the findings to residual confounding. Results Results are not available at time of writing but will be available for the conference presentation and will discuss the effects of UV exposure for both the risk of premature birth and low birthweight. Conclusions Together with clinical evidence, findings from this study may serve to highlight a possible need to revisit public health advice regarding reducing UV exposure during pregnancy and may provide evidence for possible interventions including sun lamp therapy for pregnant mothers

Mesh adaptation on the sphere using optimal transport and the numerical solution of a Monge-Ampère type equation

An equation of Monge-Ampère type has, for the first time, been solved numerically on the surface of the sphere in order to generate optimally transported (OT) meshes, equidistributed with respect to a monitor function. Optimal transport generates meshes that keep the same connectivity as the original mesh, making them suitable for r-adaptive simulations, in which the equations of motion can be solved in a moving frame of reference in order to avoid mapping the solution between old and new meshes and to avoid load balancing problems on parallel computers. The semi-implicit solution of the Monge-Ampère type equation involves a new linearisation of the Hessian term, and exponential maps are used to map from old to new meshes on the sphere. The determinant of the Hessian is evaluated as the change in volume between old and new mesh cells, rather than using numerical approximations to the gradients. OT meshes are generated to compare with centroidal Voronoi tesselations on the sphere and are found to have advantages and disadvantages; OT equidistribution is more accurate, the number of iterations to convergence is independent of the mesh size, face skewness is reduced and the connectivity does not change. However anisotropy is higher and the OT meshes are non-orthogonal. It is shown that optimal transport on the sphere leads to meshes that do not tangle. However, tangling can be introduced by numerical errors in calculating the gradient of the mesh potential. Methods for alleviating this problem are explored. Finally, OT meshes are generated using observed precipitation as a monitor function, in order to demonstrate the potential power of the technique