Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research

Adaptive governance approaches emphasize the crucial role of the private sector in enabling climate change adaptation. Yet, the participation of local firms is still lacking, and little is known about the conditions potentially influencing firms’ adaptation decisions and mechanisms that might encourage private sector engagement. We address this gap with an empirical analysis of the willingness of manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate financially in collective flood adaptation in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), a hotspot of future climate change risk. Using scenario-based field experiments, we shed light on internal and external conditions that influence potential investments in collective initiatives and explain what role SMEs can play in flood adaptation. We find that direct impacts of floods, perceived self-responsibility, and strong local ties motivate firms to participate in collective adaptation, whereas government support, sufficient financial resources, and previously implemented flood protection strategies reduce the necessity to act collectively. Here, opportunity costs and the handling of other business risks play a decisive role in investment decisions. This study shows that although private sector engagement appears to be a promising approach, it is not a panacea. Collective initiatives on flood adaptation need formal guidance and should involve local business networks and partnerships to give voice to the needs and capacities of SMEs, but such initiatives should not overstretch firms’ responsibilities

Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru

Study region Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving water resource changes. We developed an integrated model that analyzes different trajectories of water availability including hydro-climatic (water supply) and socio-economic (water demand) variables with consistent multi-descriptor future scenarios until 2050. New hydrological insights for the region At the lower-basin outflow of Condorcerro, mean annual water availability is projected to increase by 10% ± 12% by 2050. This gain is mainly driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively, which was computed using a global climate multi-model ensemble. In contrast, mean dry-season water availability is projected to substantially decrease by 33% and 36% ( ± 24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This decline is driven by a combination of diminishing glacier discharge and increasing water demand both of which adopt a major role in the absence of considerable precipitation inputs. These seasonal differences highlight the need to adequately consider spatiotemporal scales within multi-scenario water balance models to support local decision-making. Our results elucidate the need for improvements in water management and infrastructure to counteract diminishing dry-season water availability and to reduce future risks of water scarcity

Teaching Power-Sector Models Social and Political Awareness

Energy-system scenarios are widely used to relate the developments of the energy supply and the resulting carbon-emission pathways to political measures. To enable scenario analyses that adequately capture the variability of renewable-energy resources, a specialised type of power-sector model (PSM) has been developed since the beginning of this century, which uses input data with hourly resolution at the national or subnational levels. These models focus on techno-economic-system optimisation, which needs to be complemented with expert socioeconomic knowledge in order to prevent solutions that may be socially inacceptable or that oppose political goals. A way to integrate such knowledge into energy-system analysis is to use information from framework scenarios with a suitable geographical and technological focus. We propose a novel methodology to link framework scenarios to a PSM by applying complexity-management methods that enable a flexible choice of base scenarios that are tailored to suit different research questions. We explain the methodology, and we illustrate it in a case study that analyses the influence of the socioeconomic development on the European power-system transition until 2050 by linking the power-sector model, REMix (renewable-energy mix), to regional framework scenarios. The suggested approach proves suitable for this purpose, and it enables a clearer link between the impact of political measures and the power-system development

Guiding motives and storylines of the German energy transition: How to systematically integrate stakeholder positions into energy transformation pathways

Transformationspfade zu einem nachhaltigen Energiesystem beruhen meist auf modellbasierten Szenarien. In den Szenarien müssen gesellschaftliche Prozesse und deren Interaktion mit technologischen, ökonomischen und ökologischen Aspekten betrachtet werden. Dies setzt u.a. eine Integration zentraler Stakeholder-Positionen in die Szenarien voraus. Hierzu präsentieren wir Ansätze aus zwei Forschungsprojekten: Der erste Ansatz identifiziert gesellschaftliche Leitmotive der Energiewende und analysiert, in welchen technisch-ökonomischen Transformationspfaden diese realisiert werden können. Der zweite Ansatz setzt auf eine partizipative Entwicklung von Storylines, um eine verbesserte Legitimation und Kommunikation von Transformationspfaden zu erreichen. Wir diskutieren die Herangehensweisen beider Ansätze, die Positionen von Stakeholdern methodisch zu erfassen und mit technisch-ökonomischen Perspektiven zur Energiesystemtransformation zu verknüpfen.Pathways towards sustainable energy transformations are usually premised on model-based scenarios. These scenarios have to incorporate societal dynamics and their interaction with technological, economic, and ecological processes. This also requires the consideration and integration of the stakeholders’ positions into the scenarios. For this purpose, we present two different approaches: the first one identifies the stakeholders’ guiding motives regarding the German energy transition and analyzes how these positions can be realized in technological and economic transformation pathways. In the second approach, storylines are developed in a participatory process with the stakeholders to ensure increased legitimacy and communication of the resulting pathways. For both approaches, we discuss the methodological capture of stakeholder positions and their subsequent integration into energy transformation pathways

Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning

Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future, with limited theoretical foundations. The paper addresses this issue by showing that G. L. S. Shackle’s ‘Potential Surprise Theory’ (PST) contains much that can lend theoretical support to scenario planning - especially its use of plausibility rather than probability, and its focus on potential extreme outcomes. Moreover, PST and scenario planning share the same ontology, viewing the future as constructed by the imagination of individuals. Yet, under PST, while the future is imagined and, therefore, subjective, individuals nevertheless seek to identify the ‘best’ option through a deductive process of elimination. PST therefore assists in overcoming the divide between the constructivist and deductivist perspectives in scenario planning as it employs both. Finally, the paper shows that theoretically underpinning scenario planning with PST would place it at the heart of contemporary debates on decision making under uncertainty taking place in economics and other fields, enhancing its status and profile as a discipline