A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes

There are numerous reasons for calculating forecast verification scores, and considerable attention has been given to designing and analyzing the properties of scores that can be used for scientific purposes. Much less attention has been given to scores that may be useful for administrative reasons, such as communicating changes in forecast quality to bureaucrats and providing indications of forecast quality to the general public. The two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) test is proposed as a scoring procedure that is sufficiently generic to be usable on forecasts ranging from simple yes–no forecasts of dichotomous outcomes to forecasts of continuous variables, and can be used with deterministic or probabilistic forecasts without seriously reducing the more complex information when available. Although, as with any single verification score, the proposed test has limitations, it does have broad intuitive appeal in that the expected score of an unskilled set of forecasts (random guessing or perpetually identical forecasts) is 50%, and is interpretable as an indication of how often the forecasts are correct, even when the forecasts are expressed probabilistically and/or the observations are not discrete

The generalized discrimination score for ensemble forecasts

This article refers to the study of Mason and Weigel, where the generalized discrimination score D has been introduced. This score quantifies whether a set of observed outcomes can be correctly discriminated by the corresponding forecasts (i.e., it is a measure of the skill attribute of discrimination). Because of its generic definition, D can be adapted to essentially all relevant verification contexts, ranging from simple yes–no forecasts of binary outcomes to probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. For most of these cases, Mason and Weigel have derived expressions for D, many of which have turned out to be equivalent to scores that are already known under different names. However, no guidance was provided on how to calculate D for ensemble forecasts. This gap is aggravated by the fact that there are currently very few measures of forecast quality that could be directly applied to ensemble forecasts without requiring that probabilities be derived from the ensemble members prior to verification. This study seeks to close this gap. A definition is proposed of how ensemble forecasts can be ranked; the ranks of the ensemble forecasts can then be used as a basis for attempting to discriminate between corresponding observations. Given this definition, formulations of D are derived that are directly applicable to ensemble forecasts

It\u27s Tool Time: Exploring Tool Design Alternatives for Virtual Reality Trainings

Virtual reality (VR) technologies have gained a steady increase in attention and use in organizations across various industries in recent years. A useful application scenario is VR training, enabling employees to immersively and interactively familiarize with or practice work processes in a safe space without the risk of physical harm or financial consequences for the organization. This research explores how tool representation alternatives in virtual reality training scenarios (VRTS) affect user experience and content transfer. In a two-stage research approach, a total of 20 participants are randomly assigned to one of two VRTS with different tool representation types and interviewed subsequently. The findings indicate that decisions regarding tool representation in VRTS should be based on tool-independent (e.g., the feeling of tool operation) and tool-dependent factors (e.g., tool complexity)

Detection Electronics Design and First Observation of Bound-Electron Spin Transitions at the ALPHATRAP g-Factor Experiment

ALPHATRAP is a Penning-trap based experiment located at the Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik (MPIK). It is dedicated to the exploration of ground-state properties of heavy, highly charged ions (HCI). The major goal of the ALPHATRAP experiment are high precision measurements of the bound-electron g-factor. The comparison of the experimental result with recent theoretical calculations will not only serve as a sensitive test of bound-state quantum electrodynamics (BS-QED) but also yields a new approach for the determination of fundamental constants such as the electron mass or the fine structure constant. The measurement of the bound-electron g-factor of a single HCI is performed in an optimized cryogenic double Penning-trap setup, utilizing the continuous Stern-Gerlach effect. For injection of externally produced HCI up to 208Pb81+ the ALPHATRAP experiment is coupled to various ion sources, including the Heidelberg Electron-Beam Ion Trap. This thesis describes the setup and preparation of the ALPHATRAP experiment on its way towards its first g-factor measurement. In this context a new highly sensitive detection system was implemented and successfully tested. This enabled a first commissioning of the whole apparatus with in situ generated HCI as well as HCI injected through the room temperature beamline. The first-time integration of an externally operable cryogenic valve allowed for excellent vacuum conditions with long ion storage times. The implementation of typical ion detection and manipulation techniques was demonstrated by characterization measurements of the detection system and the trapping fields. The commissioning culminated in the first direct observation of induced bound-electron spin transitions at the ALPHATRAP experiment

The New Normal of Virtual Team Cohesion – a Qualitative Study to Investigate the Impact of COVID-19

A strong sense of virtual team cohesion can have a variety of positive effects, such as increased performance or self-esteem. For several decades information systems researchers have been studying both task and social cohesion and how to maintain such cohesion in the virtual. However, since one of the major challenges of the pandemic is dealing with feelings of social isolation, research outlines that COVID-19 had and still has a significant impact on virtual team cohesion. Our study examines the “new normal” of virtual team cohesion i.e., how virtual team cohesion strengthening measures have changed in times of the pandemic. To this end, our study presents the findings of a qualitative study with 26 individuals. We were able to shed light on how such measures changed on-the-job, in breaktimes, and after work. Therefore, we provide insights in the “new normal” of virtual team cohesion, which can inform research and practice

From microfluidics to hierarchical hydrogel materials

Over the past two decades, microfluidics has made significant contributions to material and life sciences, particularly via the design of nano-, micro- and mesoscale materials such as nanoparticles, micelles, vesicles, emulsion droplets, and microgels. Unmatched in control over a multitude of material parameters, microfluidics has also shed light on fundamental aspects of material design such as the early stages of nucleation and growth processes as well as structure evolution. Exemplarily, polymer hydrogel particles can be formed via microfluidics with exact control over size, shape, functionalization, compartmentalization, and mechanics that is hardly found in any other processing method. Interestingly, the utilization of microfluidics for material design largely focuses on the fabrication of single entities that act as reaction volume for organic and cell-free biosynthesis, cell mimics, or local environment for cell culturing. In recent years, however, hydrogel design has shifted towards structures that integrate a large variety of functions, e.g., to address the demands for sensing tasks in a complex environment or more closely mimicking architecture and organization of tissue by multiparametric cultures. Hence, this review provides an overview of recent literature that explores microfluidics for fabricating hydrogel materials that go well beyond common length scales as well as the structural and functional complexity of microgels necessary to produce hierarchical hydrogel structures. We focus on examples that utilize microfluidics to design microgel-based assemblies, on microfluidically made polymer microgels for 3D bioprinting, on hydrogels fabricated by microfluidics in a continuous fashion, like fibers, and on hydrogel structures that are shaped by microchannels

Ready Designer One: Exploring Expected Conditions for Interrupting Design Work by Virtual Reality

Future forms of work are changing human behavior and require the embedding of new technologies such as virtual reality (VR). These technologies may disrupt existing work processes in their original sequence. There is already research on interruptions in the work context that shows negative effects on human behavior. But what if the interruptions are intentionally built into a process designed to support the designers\u27 work? This research investigates how technically induced hybrid interruptions affect computer-aided design processes through VR. To this end, 17 interviews were conducted with designers and design-related employees of a medium-sized German organization. This provided insights into how hybrid interruptions can be perceived and under which conditions VR-induced hybrid interruptions are beneficial. Advantages may lie, for example, in process quality. Thus, we contribute to research by providing a broader understanding of interruptions and supporting organizations to consider the identified influencing conditions in their processes

Benchmarking and validation of a combined CFD-optics solver for micro-scale problems

In this work, we present a new approach for coupled CFD-optics problems that consists of a combination of a finite element method (FEM) based flow solver with a ray tracing based tool for optic forces that are induced by a laser. We combined the open-source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package FEATFLOW with the ray tracing software of the LAT-RUB to simulate optical trap configurations. We benchmark and analyze the solver first based on a configuration with a single spherical particle that is subjected to the laser forces of an optical trap. The setup is based on an experiment that is then compared to the results of our combined CFD-optics solver. As an extension of the standard procedure, we present a method with a time-stepping scheme that contains a macro step approach. The results show that this macro time-stepping scheme provides a significant acceleration while still maintaining good accuracy. A second configuration is analyzed that involves non-spherical geometries such as micro rotors. We proceed to compare simulation results of the final angular velocity of the micro rotor with experimental measurements

VR in Nursing Facilities - A randomized controlled multicenter pilot study analyzing the changes in the state of mind of seniors in nursing facilities through the viewing of 360° videos

Context: VR as an application to enhance well-being is sparsely researched in the elderly population. The aim of the pilot study was to analyze the effect of 360° videos of different categories on the state of mind of seniors in nursing facilities. Furthermore, for the implementation in everyday life, the usability of the system and the experience for seniors should be evaluated. Methods: The VR experience was used as a supplement to existing care services in three facilities on eight subjects. Mood state was assessed using the Questionnaire for the Assessment of Happiness before and after the intervention. Demographic data and technology acceptance were collected beforehand. After the intervention, subjects were interviewed about confounding factors and side effects, and nursing home staff were interviewed about the usability of the system and the organizational concept of implementation. Results: There was a positive effect on state of mind. Gender and spatial mobility turned out to be influencing factors. Categories containing people, animals and action achieved the highest increases in the state of mind. Interest in using technical devices correlated negatively with the change in mood state. None of the subjects found the VR goggles distracting or reported motion sickness. Very good usability was indicated by the employees. Conclusion: A very high willingness to use this technology was found among nursing staff and residents. The tendencies of the positive effect of 360° videos on the state of mind, as well as differentiation based on the mentioned characteristics gender and spatial mobility, should be verified by a larger sample to empirically validate the use of this technology to increase the quality of life