A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes

There are numerous reasons for calculating forecast verification scores, and considerable attention has been given to designing and analyzing the properties of scores that can be used for scientific purposes. Much less attention has been given to scores that may be useful for administrative reasons, such as communicating changes in forecast quality to bureaucrats and providing indications of forecast quality to the general public. The two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) test is proposed as a scoring procedure that is sufficiently generic to be usable on forecasts ranging from simple yes–no forecasts of dichotomous outcomes to forecasts of continuous variables, and can be used with deterministic or probabilistic forecasts without seriously reducing the more complex information when available. Although, as with any single verification score, the proposed test has limitations, it does have broad intuitive appeal in that the expected score of an unskilled set of forecasts (random guessing or perpetually identical forecasts) is 50%, and is interpretable as an indication of how often the forecasts are correct, even when the forecasts are expressed probabilistically and/or the observations are not discrete

The generalized discrimination score for ensemble forecasts

This article refers to the study of Mason and Weigel, where the generalized discrimination score D has been introduced. This score quantifies whether a set of observed outcomes can be correctly discriminated by the corresponding forecasts (i.e., it is a measure of the skill attribute of discrimination). Because of its generic definition, D can be adapted to essentially all relevant verification contexts, ranging from simple yes–no forecasts of binary outcomes to probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. For most of these cases, Mason and Weigel have derived expressions for D, many of which have turned out to be equivalent to scores that are already known under different names. However, no guidance was provided on how to calculate D for ensemble forecasts. This gap is aggravated by the fact that there are currently very few measures of forecast quality that could be directly applied to ensemble forecasts without requiring that probabilities be derived from the ensemble members prior to verification. This study seeks to close this gap. A definition is proposed of how ensemble forecasts can be ranked; the ranks of the ensemble forecasts can then be used as a basis for attempting to discriminate between corresponding observations. Given this definition, formulations of D are derived that are directly applicable to ensemble forecasts

Asymmetric Imides as Electrolyte Additive for Lithium‐Ion Batteries with NCM111 Cathode

The synthesis, spectroscopic and electrochemical characterization of Li[N(SiMe3)(SO2RF)] (RF=CF3, n‐C4F9) as well their behavior as electrolyte additive in lithium ion batteries (LIBs) is reported. The lithium salts were obtained by deprotonation of the corresponding acids HN(SiMe3)(SO2RF) with n‐butyllithium in n‐pentane. The electrochemical investigations suggested potential as additives for LIBs. Thus, NCM111/graphite cells (NCM111=Li[Ni0.33Co0.33Mn0.33]O2) with LP57 as electrolyte (LP57=1.0 M LiPF6 in EC/EMC 3 : 7) were built to test the performance. Cells with Li[N(SiMe3)(SO2RF)] as additives show coulombic efficiencies of over 99.6 %, less capacity fading over 55 cycles and a significantly lower cell impedance built up

Interpretation of the Theta+ as an isotensor pentaquark with weakly decaying partners

The Theta+(1540), recently observed at LEPS, DIANA and CLAS, is hypothesized to be an isotensor resonance. This implies the existence of a multiplet where the Theta++, Theta+ and Theta0 have isospin-violating strong decays, and the Theta+++ and Theta- have weak decays and so are long-lived. Production mechanisms for these states are discussed. The J^P assignment of the Theta is most likely 1/2^- or 3/2^-.Comment: references added, section on pentaquark model revised, 11 pages, LaTeX, accepted for publication in Physics Letters

Sphingosine kinase 1/S1P receptor signaling axis is essential for cellular uptake of Neisseria meningitidis in brain endothelial cells

Invasion of brain endothelial cells (BECs) is central to the pathogenicity of Neisseria meningitidis infection. Here, we established a key role for the bioactive sphingolipid sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) and S1P receptor (S1PR) 2 in the uptake process. Quantitative sphingolipidome analyses of BECs infected with N. meningitidis revealed elevated S1P levels, which could be attributed to enhanced expression of the enzyme sphingosine kinase 1 and its activity. Increased activity was dependent on the interaction of meningococcal type IV pilus with the endothelial receptor CD147. Concurrently, infection led to increased expression of the S1PR2. Blocking S1PR2 signaling impaired epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) phosphorylation, which has been shown to be involved in cytoskeletal remodeling and bacterial endocytosis. Strikingly, targeting S1PR1 or S1PR3 also interfered with bacterial uptake. Collectively, our data support a critical role of the SphK/S1P/S1PR axis in the invasion of N. meningitidis into BECs, defining a potential target for adjuvant therapy

An Assist for Cognitive Diagnostics in Soccer: Two Valid Tasks Measuring Inhibition and Cognitive Flexibility in a Soccer-Specific Setting With a Soccer-Specific Motor Response

In professional soccer, players, coaches, and researchers alike recognize the importance of cognitive skills. Research addressing the relevance of cognitive skills has been based on the cognitive component skills approach (i.e., general cognitive processes) or the expert performance approach (i.e., sport-specific cognitive processes). Our project aimed to combine the strengths of both approaches to develop and validate cognitive tasks measuring inhibition and cognitive flexibility in a soccer-specific setting with a soccer-specific motor response. In the main study 77 elite youth soccer players completed a computerized version of the standard flanker and number–letter tasks as well as flanker and number–letter tasks requiring a soccer-specific motor response (i.e., pass) in a soccer-specific setting (i.e., the SoccerBot360). Results show good reliability for both tasks. For the SoccerBot360 number–letter task, switch effects for response times and accuracy and acceptable convergent validity were shown. A flanker effect for response time but not accuracy was apparent. Due to no acceptable convergent validity, the flanker task was revised (i.e., adaptation of stimuli) and 63 adult soccer players participated in a follow-up validation study in the SoccerBot100. The revised flanker task showed the flanker effect for response time, but not for accuracy. However, acceptable convergent validity for response time was present. Thus, the soccer-specific number–letter and to some extent the soccer-specific flanker task show potential to be used as a valid cognitive diagnostic tool by soccer clubs.Peer Reviewe

Outcomes of patients with Kaposi's sarcoma who start antiretroviral therapy under routine programme conditions in Malawi.

AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) is the most common AIDS-related malignancy in sub-Saharan Africa, with a generally unfavourable prognosis. We report on six-month and 12-month cohort treatment outcomes of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive KS patients and HIV-positive non-KS patients treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public sector facilities in Malawi. Data were collected from standardized antiretroviral (ARV) patient master cards and ARV patient registers. Between July and September 2005, 7905 patients started ART-488 (6%) with a diagnosis of KS and 7417 with a non-KS diagnosis. Between January and March 2005, 4580 patients started ART-326 (7%) with a diagnosis of KS and 4254 with a non-KS diagnosis. At six-months and 12-months, significantly fewer KS patients were alive and significantly more had died or defaulted compared to non-KS patients. HIV-positive KS patients on ART in Malawi have worse outcomes than other patients on ART. Methods designed to improve these outcomes must be found

Timing of Esophagectomy after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy Affects the Incidence of Anastomotic Leaks

Background: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (nCRT) has become the standard of care for esophageal cancer patients prior to esophagectomy. However, the optimal timing for surgery after completion of nCRT remains unclear. Methods: A retrospective review was performed of patients who underwent esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis for esophageal cancer at a single institution between January 2000 and June 2015. Patients were categorized into 3 cohorts: those who did not receive nCRT prior to esophagectomy (no nCRT), those who underwent esophagectomy within 35 days after nCRT (≤35d), and those who underwent esophagectomy more than 35 days after nCRT (>35d). Results: A total of 366 esophagectomies were performed during the study period, and 348 patients met the inclusion criteria. Anastomotic leaks occurred in 11.8% of all patients included in the study (41 of 348). Within each cohort, anastomotic leaks were detected in 14.7% of patients (17 of 116) in the no nCRT cohort, 7.3% (13 of 177) in the ≤35d cohort, and 20.0% (11 of 55) in the >35d cohort (p=0.020). Significant differences in the occurrence of anastomotic leaks were observed between the no nCRT and ≤35d cohorts (p=0.044), and between the ≤35d and >35d cohorts (p=0.007). Conclusion: Esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis within 35 days of nCRT resulted in a lower percentage of anastomotic leaks

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