How Much Risk is Acceptable?

The financial crisis has sparked proposals to reform the retirement income system. One component of such a system could be a new tier of retirement accounts. These accounts would augment declining Social Security replacement rates for low-wage workers and provide a buffer of security for middle- and upper-wage workers who, increasingly, will rely totally on 401(k) plans to supplement their Social Security. Designing such a new tier requires answering a number of questions: Mandatory or voluntary? Employee and/or employer contributions? Subsidies for low earners? Payments as lump sums or annuities? Tax favored or not? But the most fundamental question is whether the goal of the new tier is to provide a defined contribution account, where the retirement income will depend on market performance, or an account that can provide a certain percent of final earnings ñ that is, a target replacement rate...

How Important Are Inheritances for Baby Boomers?

Due to a changing retirement landscape, many baby boomers are likely to have insufficient resources for a secure retirement.1 One potential source that could improve their situation is inheritances. This study quantifies the aggregate amount of inheritances that baby boomers – those individuals born between 1946 and 1964 – can expect to receive over their lifetimes, and the distribution of past and prospective receipts by household type. The discussion is organized as follows. The first section quantifies the aggregate amount that boomers will receive. The second section investigates who will receive how much. The third section considers the impact of the recession on inheritances, specifically the declining values of equities and housing. The final section concludes that, while inheritances will augment the resources of aging baby boomers, they will be insufficient to ensure secure retirements.

Long-term Care Costs and The National Retirement Risk Index

Even if households work to age 65 and annuitize all their financial assets, including the receipts from reverse mortgages on their homes, the National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) has shown that 44 percent will be ‘at risk.’ ‘At risk’ means they will be unable to maintain their standard of living in retirement. When health care costs were included explicitly, the percentage of households ‘at risk’ increased to 61 percent. Our previous analysis of health care costs, however, did not consider possible expenses for long-term care towards the end of life. This brief explores how the need for long-term care could affect the NRRI. This brief is structured as follows. The first section recaps the original NRRI and the NRRI with health care costs explicitly included. The second section describes the nature of long-term care, the likelihood of a household member needing such care, and the financing alternatives available. The third section explores how the challenge posed by long-term care is different for households of different types and wealth levels. The fourth section models the impact of long-term care on the NRRI. The final section concludes.

Do Households Have a Good Sense of Their Retirement Preparedness?

The National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) measures the percentage of working-age households who are ‘at risk’ of being financially unprepared for retirement today and in coming decades. The calculations show that even if households work to age 65 and annuitize all their financial assets, including the receipts from reverse mortgages on their homes, 44 percent will be ‘at risk’ of being unable to maintain their standard of living in retirement. An extension of the analysis to account explicitly for health care costs in retirement raises the share of ‘at risk’ households from 44 percent to 61 percent. This brief examines whether households have a good sense of their own retirement preparedness — do their retirement expectations match the reality that they face? Do people ‘at risk’ know that they are ‘at risk?’ The first section summarizes the NRRI and compares households’ self-assessed preparedness to the objective measure provided by the NRRI. The second section describes the characteristics of households associated with being too optimistic or too pessimistic. The last section of this brief introduces health care costs into the analysis.

What Does It Cost To Guarantee Returns?

The financial crisis has dramatically demonstrated how a collapse in equity prices can decimate retirement accounts. The crisis highlights the fragility of existing 401(k) plans as the only supplement to Social Security and has sparked proposals to reform the retirement income system. One component of such a system could be a new tier of retirement accounts. Given the declines in the share of earnings Social Security will replace, these accounts would bolster replacement rates for low-wage workers and increase the security of middle- and upper-wage workers who increasingly rely on their 401(k) plans to supplement Social Security. However, these new accounts could face the same risk of collapse in value seen over the past year in 401(k)s. So policymakers may find some form of guaranteed return or risk sharing desirable to prevent huge variations in outcomes. This brief explores the feasible range and the cost of the first option – guarantees...

How Important Is Asset Allocation To Americans’ Financial Retirement Security?

Financial advice tends to focus on financial assets, but other levers may be more important for most households. This chapter proceeds in three stages. First we report a simple Excel spreadsheet exercise that provides a stylized example of the tradeoff between returns and time spent in the labor force. Next we use data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) on pre-retirees age 51-64 to see how the gap between retirement needs and retirement resources is affected by working longer, taking out a reverse mortgage, controlling spending, and shifting all assets to equities with no risk. Last we use a simple dynamic programming model to calculate a risk-adjusted measure of the value for the average household of moving from a typical conservative portfolio to an optimal portfolio. Our answer from all three exercises suggests that the focus on asset allocation is misplaced

Are Retirees Falling Short? Reconciling the Conflicting Evidence

A fundamental question in the retirement area is whether people will have adequate retirement income to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living. Existing studies offer conflicting assessments; some indicate a serious problem while others present an optimistic view. This chapter attempts to explain why the assessments differ. We find that the optimistic views of retirement preparedness depend crucially on behavioral assumptions that may not reflect real world activity or on consumption levels that are unsustainable in the long run. Thus, our best assessment is that retirees are falling short and will fall increasingly short over time

How Will Higher Tax Rates Affect the National Retirement Risk Index?

The National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) measures the share of American households ‘at risk’ of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living in retirement. The calculations are based on the assumption that taxes remain at current levels. But federal government spending as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase rapidly in coming decades. To help bridge the gap between revenue and spending, policymakers could decide to substantially increase the personal income tax, raise Social Secu­rity payroll taxes, and establish additional revenue sources such as a value-added tax. This brief explores how such tax increases could affect the percentage of households ‘at risk.’ This brief is structured as follows. The first section recaps the NRRI. The second describes how much taxes could increase. The third section describes the channel through which higher taxes may affect retire­ment preparedness. The fourth section presents the impact of plausible tax increases on the percentage of households ‘at risk.’ The final section concludes that higher taxes will have a relatively modest effect on the NRRI for most groups – the exception being high-income households on the cusp of retirement. It also cautions that the effect could be substantially greater if people reduce their saving in response to an unprecedented increase in taxes, and that the increase in the NRRI tells only half the story because economic well-being as measured by consumption will be lower both before and after retirement.

Pension Confusion, Uncertainty and Trust in Scotland: An Empirical Analysis

In the context of the new automatic enrolment requirements for all eligible employees to make pension provision for their employees, and the importance of trust in pension provision, this article utilises data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, which, in its 2005 wave, asked correspondents specific questions regarding pension provision. We integrate two different empirical approaches in order to achieve a more robust understanding of pension confusion in Scotland. We find that pension confusion is dominated by pension uncertainty and myopia, but these may be reduced for those working in the financial sector. We consider the implications of these findings for the relationship of trust between employers and their employees, as well as for trust in government pension policy more generally