Public diplomacy: meeting new challenges. Report of Wilton Park Conference 902

What is the role of public diplomacy in the delivery of international objectives? Is there scope for more intergovernmental collaboration? Do governments understand their audiences and how best to reach them? In what ways can practitioners take advantage of new technology? What can be learnt from non-governmental actors? How to ensure sharing of best practice

London calling: BBC external services, Whitehall and the cold war 1944-57.

PhDThe Second World War had radically changed the focus of the BBC's overseas operation from providing an imperial service in English only, to that of a global broadcaster speaking to the world in over forty different languages. The end of that conflict saw the BBC's External Services, as they became known, re-engineered for a world at peace, but it was not long before splits in the international community caused the postwar geopolitical landscape to shift, plunging the world into a cold war. At the British government's insistence a re-calibration of the External Services' broadcasting remit was undertaken, particularly in its broadcasts to Central and Eastern Europe, to adapt its output to this new and emerging world order. Broadcasting was seen at the time as an essential adjunct to Britain's non-shooting war with the Soviet Union and a primary means of engaging with attitudes and opinion behind the Iron Curtain. Funded by government Grant-in-Aid, but with its editorial independence enshrined in the BBC's Charter, Licence and Agreement, this thesis examines, in the context of the cold war, where the balance of power lay in relations between Whitehall and the External Services. In doing so, it traces the evolution of overseas broadcasting from Britain, alongside the political, diplomatic and fiscal challenges facing it, up to the 1956 Hungarian uprising and Suez crisis. These were defining experiences for the United Kingdom's international broadcaster that, as a consequence, helped shape the future the External Services for the rest of the cold war

Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes

As deforestation breaches into new tropical frontiers, proactive conservation strategies require a trifecta of information on where deforestation is accelerating (emergent), how drivers of deforestation vary spatiotemporally, and where to focus limited conservation resources in protecting the most integral yet threatened forested landscapes. Here we introduce Emergent Threat Analysis, a process integrating Emerging Hot Spot Analysis of deforestation, visual classification of deforestation outcomes over time, and spatial quantification of contemporary forest condition. We applied Emergent Threat Analysis to tropical Southeast Asia, a global epicentre of biodiversity threatened by deforestation. We found that emergent hot spots (EHS)-a subset of hot spots characterized by strong, recent, and clustered patterns of deforestation-accounted for 26.1% of total forest loss from 1992 to 2018, with deforestation within EHS proceeding at 2.5 times the regional rate of gross loss. Oil palm and rubber plantation expansion were the principal drivers of deforestation within EHS of insular and mainland SE Asia, respectively. Over the study period, oil palm shifted in importance from Sumatra and Sarawak to Papua and Kalimantan, whereas rubber became prominent in Cambodia and Tanintharyi from 2006 to 2015. As of 2019, more than 170 000 km(2) of SE Asia's remaining forest occurred within EHS, of which 21.7% was protected. High and medium-integrity forest constituted 19.2% and 49.1% of remaining EHS forest, respectively, but of these, 35.0% of high-integrity and 23.9% of medium-integrity EHS forest were protected. Because we anticipate that tree plantation expansion will continue to drive deforestation in SE Asia, significantly heightened protection is needed to secure the long-term preservation of high and medium-integrity forest, especially in highly contested forest frontier regions. Finally, as a flexible, integrated process, Emergent Threat Analysis is applicable to deforestation fronts across the global tropics.Peer reviewe

Occurrence-habitat mismatching and niche truncation when modelling distributions affected by anthropogenic range contractions

Aims Human-induced pressures such as deforestation cause anthropogenic range contractions (ARCs). Such contractions present dynamic distributions that may engender data misrepresentations within species distribution models. The temporal bias of occurrence data-where occurrences represent distributions before (past bias) or after (recent bias) ARCs-underpins these data misrepresentations. Occurrence-habitat mismatching results when occurrences sampled before contractions are modelled with contemporary anthropogenic variables; niche truncation results when occurrences sampled after contractions are modelled without anthropogenic variables. Our understanding of their independent and interactive effects on model performance remains incomplete but is vital for developing good modelling protocols. Through a virtual ecologist approach, we demonstrate how these data misrepresentations manifest and investigate their effects on model performance. Location Virtual Southeast Asia. Methods Using 100 virtual species, we simulated ARCs with 100-year land-use data and generated temporally biased (past and recent) occurrence datasets. We modelled datasets with and without a contemporary land-use variable (conventional modelling protocols) and with a temporally dynamic land-use variable. We evaluated each model's ability to predict historical and contemporary distributions. Results Greater ARC resulted in greater occurrence-habitat mismatching for datasets with past bias and greater niche truncation for datasets with recent bias. Occurrence-habitat mismatching prevented models with the contemporary land-use variable from predicting anthropogenic-related absences, causing overpredictions of contemporary distributions. Although niche truncation caused underpredictions of historical distributions (environmentally suitable habitats), incorporating the contemporary land-use variable resolved these underpredictions, even when mismatching occurred. Models with the temporally dynamic land-use variable consistently outperformed models without. Main conclusions We showed how these data misrepresentations can degrade model performance, undermining their use for empirical research and conservation science. Given the ubiquity of ARCs, these data misrepresentations are likely inherent to most datasets. Therefore, we present a three-step strategy for handling data misrepresentations: maximize the temporal range of anthropogenic predictors, exclude mismatched occurrences and test for residual data misrepresentations.Peer reviewe

Understanding the Changing Cultural Value of the BBC World Service and the British Council

This project investigated the changing cultural value of the BBC World Service (WS) and the British Council (BC) and how their cultural value can be assessed and measured. For eight decades, these organisations have been the face and voice of Britain overseas. Our research found that their attraction and influence abroad remains strong, but is on the wane, reflecting the UK’s declining economic and political significance on the world stage. Among the key findings of our historical and contemporary research: Cultural value is the catalyst of all aspects of value at WS and BC, founded on their capacity to act as transcultural intermediaries, fostering international understanding, and setting benchmarks in global standards for journalism and cultural relations work. Cultural value is relational, never independent of political and economic value. It is perspectival: audiences trust the quality and credibility of outputs; high professional standards and prestige benefit staff; funders appreciate the diplomatic and soft power assets. Cultural value accrues slowly over time but can be quickly lost. Social media afford new ways of connecting, informing and engaging citizens at home and abroad. Our case studies analysing the uses of Twitter and Facebook by BC and WS around global media events underscore the so far limited role of social media in democratising participation and promoting intercultural dialogue. We developed an innovative, theoretically grounded and empirically informed Cultural Value Model (CVM). This is an innovative device for conceptualising, analysing and assessing value in a multidimensional, composite, visual way. The CVM is designed for planning, monitoring and evaluating projects and organisations over time, alongside existing performance indicators and impact measures. It is currently being tested and developed on further projects at WS and BC as well as at the Swedish Institute

The sound of revolution: BBC monitoring and the Hungarian uprising, 1956

Radio played a vitally important role during the 1956 Hungarian uprising: as an information service, diplomatic interlocutor and cultural mediator. Broadcasters and the authorities that stood behind them on both sides of the Iron Curtain mapped, interpreted and, at times, appeared to influence the course of events on the ground. The BBC Monitoring Service Transcription Collection offers an essential and unexplored perspective on the mediated experience of the Hungarian uprising, in the context of the wider political warfare battle of the cold war

Political transition and emergent forest-conservation issues in Myanmar.

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long-running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon-scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land-tenure insecurity, large-scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure- and energy-project planning, and reforming land-tenure and environmental-protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions

Political transition and emergent forest-conservation issues in Myanmar.

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long-running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon-scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land-tenure insecurity, large-scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure- and energy-project planning, and reforming land-tenure and environmental-protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions