Extrapolation Theory and the Pricing of REIT Stocks

This paper is the winner of the best paper on Real Estate Investment Trusts award (sponsored by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT)] presented at the 2005 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. This study evaluates the investment prospects of value stocks in the real estate investment trust (REIT) market. Value stocks are defined as those that carry low prices relative to their earnings, dividends, book assets, or other measures of fundamental value. The empirical results show that from 1990 onwards, value REITs provide superior returns without exposing investors to higher risks. The evidence is consistent with the extrapolation theory, which attributes the mispricing to investors over extrapolating past corporate results into the future. Interestingly, the findings reveal that such extrapolation is asymmetric in the REIT market. While value REITs are underpriced in accordance with the extrapolation theory, no evidence is found that growth REITs are overpriced. The value anomaly also exhibited several temporal traits. Firstly, the value premium varies over time. Secondly, the magnitude of the premium is inversely associated with the market performance. Finally, the value anomaly is not evident in the pricing of REITs in the 1980s.

Why Do People Act Like the Proverbial Ostrich? Investigating the Reasons That People Provide for Not Monitoring Their Goal Progress

Two studies examined peoples' reasons for not monitoring their progress toward their personal goals-a phenomenon that has been termed "the ostrich problem" (Webb et al., 2013). Study 1 used factor analysis to organize the reasons that people gave for not monitoring their goal progress, resulting in 10 factors. The most strongly endorsed reasons were: (a) that information on goal progress would demand a change in beliefs, or (b) undesired action; (c) that progress was poor, and (d) that thinking about and/or working on the goal was associated with negative emotions. Study 2 adopted a prospective design and investigated whether the reasons identified in Study 1 predicted: (a) the likelihood that participants would decline an opportunity to monitor their goal progress, and (b) the frequency with which participants monitored their goal progress. We found evidence that some of the most strongly endorsed reasons from Study 1 also predicted the avoidance of monitoring in Study 2; however, the belief that information about goal progress was likely to be inaccurate and not useful, and perceived control over goal attainment also reliably predicted the avoidance of monitoring in Study 2. Taken together, the findings explain why people do not monitor their goal progress and point to potential avenues for intervention

Using Temporal Self-Regulation Theory to understand healthy and unhealthy eating intentions and behaviour

Objectives: The present research investigated whether Temporal Self-Regulation Theory (TST) can be used to help understand healthy and unhealthy eating intentions and behaviour. Design: A prospective design with two waves of data collection one week apart. Method: An online survey measured the key components of TST (i.e., connectedness, timing and valence beliefs, intentions, past behaviour, habit strength, perceived environmental cues, and self-control) with respect to eating fruit and vegetables (F&V; N = 133) or unhealthy snacks (N = 125). Eating behaviour was assessed one week later. Results: The components of TST explained significant amounts of the variance in intentions and behaviour for intake of F&Vs (22% and 64%, respectively) and unhealthy snacks (18% and 35%, respectively). Beliefs about positive and negative short-term outcomes significantly predicted intentions to perform both behaviours. Intentions and past behaviour significantly predicted consumption of F&Vs, and past behaviour moderated the relationship between intention and behaviour which became stronger as past behaviour increased. Past behaviour and habit strength significantly predicted unhealthy snacking. Conclusions: The findings suggest that TST may be a useful framework for understanding eating intentions and behaviour. However, research did not find support for all of the hypothesised relationships (e.g., self-regulatory capacity did not significantly predict eating behaviour and also failed to moderate the relationships between intentions and behaviour). Research using alternative measures of self-regulatory capacity, along with experimental manipulations of TST variables, may be needed to further understand eating intentions and behaviour

A structural equation model of the relationship between insomnia, negative affect, and paranoid thinking

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence points to relationships between insomnia, negative affect, and paranoid thinking. However, studies are needed to examine (i) whether negative affect mediates the relation between insomnia and paranoid thinking, (ii) whether different types of insomnia exert different effects on paranoia, and (iii) to compare the impact of objective and self-reported sleeping difficulties. METHOD: Structural equation modelling was therefore used to test competing models of the relationships between self-reported insomnia, negative affect, and paranoia. n = 348 participants completed measures of insomnia, negative affect and paranoia. A subset of these participants (n = 91) went on to monitor their sleep objectively (using a portable sleep monitor made by Zeo) for seven consecutive nights. Associations between objectively recorded sleep, negative affect, and paranoia were explored using linear regression. RESULTS: The findings supported a fully mediated model where self-reported delayed sleep onset, but not self-reported problems with sleep maintenance or objective measures of sleep, was directly associated with negative affect that, in turn, was associated with paranoia. There was no evidence of a direct association between delayed sleep onset or sleep maintenance problems and paranoia. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, the findings point to an association between perceived (but not objective) difficulties initially falling asleep (but not maintaining sleep) and paranoid thinking; a relationship that is fully mediated by negative affect. Future research should seek to disentangle the causal relationships between sleep, negative affect, and paranoia (e.g., by examining the effect of an intervention using prospective designs that incorporate experience sampling). Indeed, interventions might profitably target (i) perceived sleep quality, (ii) sleep onset, and / or (iii) emotion regulation as a route to reducing negative affect and, thus, paranoid thinking

Does improving sleep lead to better mental health? A protocol for a meta-analytic review of randomised controlled trials

INTRODUCTION: Sleep and mental health go hand-in-hand, with many, if not all, mental health problems being associated with problems sleeping. Although sleep has been traditionally conceptualised as a secondary consequence of mental health problems, contemporary views prescribe a more influential, causal role of sleep in the formation and maintenance of mental health problems. One way to evaluate this assertion is to examine the extent to which interventions that improve sleep also improve mental health. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) describing the effects of interventions designed to improve sleep on mental health will be identified via a systematic search of four bibliographic databases (in addition to a search for unpublished literature). Hedges' g and associated 95% CIs will be computed from means and SDs where possible. Following this, meta-analysis will be used to synthesise the effect sizes from the primary studies and investigate the impact of variables that could potentially moderate the effects. The Jadad scale for reporting RCTs will be used to assess study quality and publication bias will be assessed via visual inspection of a funnel plot and Egger's test alongside Orwin's fail-safe n. Finally, mediation analysis will be used to investigate the extent to which changes in outcomes relating to mental health can be attributed to changes in sleep quality. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study requires no ethical approval. The findings will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and promoted to relevant stakeholders. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017055450

The effect of an online self-help cognitive behavioural intervention for insomnia on negative affect and paranoia: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Sleep and mental health go hand-in-hand, with problems sleeping being associated with a variety of mental health difficulties. Recently, insomnia has been linked with the experience of paranoia, a relationship that is likely to be mediated by negative affect. Given these links, the present research aimed to test whether a self-help intervention designed to improve sleep can also improve negative affect and paranoia. Method: Participants were recruited from a mailing list of University staff and were randomly allocated to one of three conditions; a wait-list control group, an active control group who completed a sleep diary each day for 6 weeks, and an experimental group who received an online self-help intervention targeting sleep problems alongside the same sleep diary. Levels of insomnia, negative affect, and paranoia were measured at baseline, immediately post-intervention, and 4- and 18-weeks post-intervention. Results: There were no significant differences between the groups on levels of insomnia, negative affect, and/or paranoid thinking at post-intervention, 4-weeks, or the 18-week follow-up. However, a relatively large number of participants dropped out of the study, particularly in the intervention group, which meant that the primary analysis was underpowered. Conclusion: Due to a high level of participant dropout, the findings from the present research are inconclusive, and suggest that retaining participants in trials of online interventions is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed in future research

Understanding the effects of time perspective: A meta-analysis testing a self-regulatory framework

Despite extensive evidence that time perspective is associated with a range of important outcomes across a variety of life domains (e.g., health, education, wealth), the question of why time perspective has such wide-reaching effects remains unknown. The present review proposes that self-regulatory processes can offer insight into why time perspective is linked to outcomes. To test this idea we classified measures of time perspective according to the dimension of time perspective that they reflected (e.g., past, present-hedonistic, future) and measures of self-regulation according to the self-regulatory process (i.e., goal setting, goal monitoring, and goal operating), ability, or outcome that they reflected. A systematic search identified 378 studies, reporting 2,000 tests of the associations between measures of time perspective and self-regulation. Random-effects meta-analyses with robust variance estimation found that a future time perspective had small-to-medium-sized positive associations with goal setting (r+ = 0.25), goal monitoring (r+ = 0.19), goal operating (r+ = 0.24), self-regulatory ability (r+ = 0.35), and outcomes (r+ = 0.18). Present time perspective, including being present-hedonistic and present-fatalistic, was negatively associated with self-regulatory processes, ability, and outcomes (r+ ranged from −0.00 to −0.27). Meta-analytic mediation models found that the relationship between future time perspective and outcomes was mediated by goal monitoring, goal operating, and self-regulatory ability, but not goal setting. As the first test of why time perspective is associated with key outcomes, the findings highlight the central role of self-regulation processes and abilities for understanding why people with certain time perspectives experience better outcomes

African-Americans in Standard Behavioral Treatment for Obesity, 2001-2015: What have we learned?

African Americans (AAs) bear a disproportionate burden of the obesity epidemic, yet have historically been underrepresented in weight loss research. We conducted a narrative review of large (N > 75) randomized prospective clinical trials of standard behavioral treatment for weight loss that reported results in the past 15 years (2001-2015) to (a) determine the rates of inclusion and reported results for AAs and (b) further identify strategies that may result in improved outcomes. Of the 23 trials reviewed, 69.6% of the studies met or exceeded population estimates for AAs in the United States. However, only 10 reported outcomes and/or considered race in the analytic approach. At 6 months, AA participants consistently lost less weight than White participants. The use of culturally tailored intervention materials and monthly personal telephone calls were reported as factors that may have enhanced treatment response. Future behavioral weight loss trials should also increase reporting of outcomes by race

Which Combinations of Techniques and Modes of Delivery in Internet-Based Interventions Effectively Change Health Behavior? A Meta-Analysis

Background: Many online interventions designed to promote health behaviors combine multiple behavior change techniques (BCTs), adopt different modes of delivery (MoD) (eg, text messages), and range in how usable they are. Research is therefore needed to examine the impact of these features on the effectiveness of online interventions. Objective: This study applies Classification and Regression Trees (CART) analysis to meta-analytic data, in order to identify synergistic effects of BCTs, MoDs, and usability factors. Methods: We analyzed data from Webb et al. This review included effect sizes from 52 online interventions targeting a variety of health behaviors and coded the use of 40 BCTs and 11 MoDs. Our research also developed a taxonomy for coding the usability of interventions. Meta-CART analyses were performed using the BCTs and MoDs as predictors and using treatment success (ie, effect size) as the outcome. Results: Factors related to usability of the interventions influenced their efficacy. Specifically, subgroup analyses indicated that more efficient interventions (interventions that take little time to understand and use) are more likely to be effective than less efficient interventions. Meta-CART identified one synergistic effect: Interventions that included barrier identification/ problem solving and provided rewards for behavior change reported an average effect size that was smaller (ḡ=0.23, 95% CI 0.08-0.44) than interventions that used other combinations of techniques (ḡ=0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.59). No synergistic effects were found for MoDs or for MoDs combined with BCTs. Conclusions: Interventions that take little time to understand and use were more effective than those that require more time. Few specific combinations of BCTs that contribute to the effectiveness of online interventions were found. Furthermore, no synergistic effects between BCTs and MoDs were found, even though MoDs had strong effects when analyzed univariately in the original study

How effective are interventions designed to help owners to change their behaviour so as to manage the weight of their companion dogs? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: The present review sought to evaluate whether – and to what extent – targeting owners’ behaviour is an effective way to reduce the problem of overweight and obesity among companion dogs. Methods: A systematic search of electronic databases identified 14 studies that evaluated the effect of an intervention targeting owners’ behaviour on (i) the owner's behaviour or (ii) the weight, (iii) body fat, or (iv) body condition of the dog. We coded aspects of the study design (e.g., the outcome variable), intervention (e.g., use of theory, specific behaviour change techniques or BCTs, inclusion of nutritional intervention alongside the behavioural intervention), and sample (e.g., age, gender, and weight of the dogs at baseline) that could influence the effect sizes. Results: The interventions had, on average, a medium sized effect on outcomes (d+= 0.59, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.96, k = 14, N = 384). The effect sizes from the primary studies were relatively homogenous, Q(13) = 12.10, p =.52 and the nature of the intervention, methodological and sample characteristics did not moderate the effect sizes. Conclusions and clinical relevance: The findings of the review suggest that targeting owners’ behaviour can be an effective way to reduce overweight and obesity among companion dogs. However, this conclusion is based on a limited number of studies and so we hope that the present findings serve as the impetus for further research in this area