The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

The Effect of Exercise on Pulpal and Gingival Blood Flow in Physically Active and Inactive Subjects as Assessed by Laser Doppler

The effects of exercise on pulpal and gingival blood flow are undefined. The autonomic nervous system response suggests that they could increase or decrease with exercise, and they may be independent of each other. This study attempts to answer these questions

Financial considerations in the conduct of multi-centre randomised controlled trials: evidence from a qualitative study.

National Coordinating Centre for Research Methodology; Medical Research Council, UK Department of Health; Chief Scientist OfficeNot peer reviewedPublisher PD

Genetic, environmental and stochastic factors in monozygotic twin discordance with a focus on epigenetic differences

PMCID: PMC3566971This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project

This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understanding of how changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation perturb the Earth's radiation balance and its climate response in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we provide global and annual mean results for a large set of coupled atmospheric-ocean GCM simulations and a description of how to easily extract files from the dataset. The simulations consist of single idealized perturbations to the climate system and have been shown to achieve important insight in complex climate simulations. We therefore expect this data set to be valuable and highly used to understand simulations from complex GCMs and Earth System Models for various phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Affective Correlates of Stimulant Use and Adherence to Anti-retroviral Therapy Among HIV-positive Methamphetamine Users

The use of stimulants has important implications for HIV prevention and care. However, few investigations have examined psychological correlates of substance use and adherence to anti-retroviral therapy (ART) among HIV-positive stimulant users. This cross-sectional investigation examined affective correlates of stimulant use and ART adherence among HIV-positive methamphetamine users. In total, 122 HIV-positive men who have sex with men or transgendered individuals on ART who reported using methamphetamine in the past 30 days were recruited from the community. HIV-specific traumatic stress was consistently and independently associated with more frequent cocaine/crack use (but not with methamphetamine use). Positive affect was independently associated with a decreased likelihood of reporting any injection drug use and an increased likelihood of reporting perfect ART adherence. HIV-specific traumatic stress may be an important determinant of increased cocaine/crack use in this population. Positive affect may increase the likelihood that individuals will refrain from injection drug use and achieve high levels of ART adherence

Understanding the Impact of Male Circumcision Interventions on the Spread of HIV in Southern Africa

BACKGROUND: Three randomised controlled trials have clearly shown that circumcision of adult men reduces the chance that they acquire HIV infection. However, the potential impact of circumcision programmes--either alone or in combination with other established approaches--is not known and no further field trials are planned. We have used a mathematical model, parameterised using existing trial findings, to understand and predict the impact of circumcision programmes at the population level. FINDINGS: Our results indicate that circumcision will lead to reductions in incidence for women and uncircumcised men, as well as those circumcised, but that even the most effective intervention is unlikely to completely stem the spread of the virus. Without additional interventions, HIV incidence could eventually be reduced by 25-35%, depending on the level of coverage achieved and whether onward transmission from circumcised men is also reduced. However, circumcision interventions can act synergistically with other types of prevention programmes, and if efforts to change behaviour are increased in parallel with the scale-up of circumcision services, then dramatic reductions in HIV incidence could be achieved. In the long-term, this could lead to reduced AIDS deaths and less need for anti-retroviral therapy. Any increases in risk behaviours following circumcision, i.e. 'risk compensation', could offset some of the potential benefit of the intervention, especially for women, but only very large increases would lead to more infections overall. CONCLUSIONS: Circumcision will not be the silver bullet to prevent HIV transmission, but interventions could help to substantially protect men and women from infection, especially in combination with other approaches

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Exploring the relationship between experiential avoidance, coping functions and the recency and frequency of self-harm

This study investigated the relationship between experiential avoidance, coping and the recency and frequency of self-harm, in a community sample (N = 1332, aged 16–69 years). Participants completed online, self-report measures assessing self-harm, momentary affect, experiential avoidance and coping in response to a recent stressor. Participants who had self-harmed reported significantly higher levels of experiential avoidance and avoidance coping, as well as lower levels of approach, reappraisal and emotional regulation coping, than those with no self-harm history. Moreover, more recent self-harm was associated with lower endorsement of approach, reappraisal and emotion regulation coping, and also higher levels of both avoidance coping and experiential avoidance. Higher experiential avoidance and avoidance coping also predicted increased lifetime frequency of self-harm. Conversely, increased approach and reappraisal coping were associated with a decreased likelihood of high frequency self-harm. Although some of the effects were small, particularly in relation to lifetime frequency of self-harm, overall our results suggest that experiential avoidance tendency may be an important psychological factor underpinning self-harm, regardless of suicidal intent (e.g. including mixed intent, suicidal intent, ambivalence), which is not accounted for in existing models of self-harm