Stabilisation strategy for unstable transport systems under general evolutionary dynamics

Stability of equilibria in transport systems has been discussed for decades. Even in deterministic cases, where stochasticity is ignored, stability is not a general property; a counterexample has been found in (within-day) dynamic traffic assignment problems. Instability can be a source of uncertainty of travel time and although pricing may stabilise an unstable transport system, pricing is not always acceptable to the public. This study aims to develop a pricing strategy that stabilises a transport system with minimum tolls. We show that with our stabilising pricing system tolls are bounded above and converge to zero when the error in estimation of a no-toll equilibrium converges to zero. We then show that the proposed toll scheme stabilises a wide range of evolutionary dynamics. We also propose a heuristic procedure to minimise the toll level. The procedure can also be viewed as a method of finding a possibly unstable equilibrium solution of a transport system. This suggests that, while we have not provided a rigorous proof, we may be able to find an equilibrium solution of any transport problem including problems which arise in dynamic traffic assignment (DTA); in these DTA cases, how to construct a solution algorithm that always converges to an equilibrium solution is still an open question. The methods proposed here will be extended so that they apply in more realistic behavioural settings in future work

Updating of travel behavior parameters and estimation of vehicle trip-chain data based on plate scanning

This article proposes a maximum-likelihood method to update travel behavior model parameters and estimate vehicle trip chain based on plate scanning. The information from plate scanning consists of the vehicle passing time and sequence of scanned vehicles along a series of plate scanning locations (sensor locations installed on road network). The article adopts the hierarchical travel behavior decision model, in which the upper tier is an activity pattern generation model, and the lower tier is a destination and route choice model. The activity pattern is an individual profile of daily performed activities. To obtain reliable estimation results, the sensor location schemes for predicting trip chaining are proposed. The maximum-likelihood estimation problem based on plate scanning is formulated to update model parameters. This problem is solved by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The model and algorithm are then tested with simulated plate scanning data in a modified Sioux Falls network. The results illustrate the efficiency of the model and its potential for an application to large and complex network cases

Anthropogenic Impacts on the Corner Rise Seamounts, North-West Atlantic Ocean

Here we report the first direct underwater observations of extensive human-caused impacts on two remote seamounts in the Corner Rise complex (north-western Atlantic). This note documents evidence of anthropogenic damage on the summits of Kukenthal peak (on Corner Seamount) and Yakutat Scamount, likely resulting from a limited Russian fishery from the mid- 1970s to the mid-1990s, highlighting how bottom trawling can have long-term detrimental effects oil deep-water benthic fauna

Optimizations of sub-100 nm Si/SiGe MODFETs for high linearity RF applications

Based on careful calibration in respect of 70 nm n-type strained Si channel S/SiGe modulation doped FETs (MODFETs) fabricated by Daimler Chrysler, numerical simulations have been used to study the impact of the device geometry and various doping strategies on device performance and linearity. The device geometry is sensitive to both RF performance and device linearity. Doped channel devices are found to be promising for high linearity applications. Trade-off design strategies are required for reconciling the demands of high device performance and high linearity simultaneously. The simulations also suggest that gate length scaling helps to achieve higher RF performance, but decreases the linearity

Properties of equilibria in transport problems with complex interactions between users

It is well known that uniqueness and stability are guaranteed properties of traffic equilibria in static user-equilibrium traffic assignment problems, if the link travel utilities are assumed to be strictly monotonically decreasing with respect to the link traffic volumes. However, these preferable properties may not necessarily hold in a wide range of transport problems with complex interactions, e.g. asymmetric interactions (including dynamic traffic assignment), social interactions, or with economies of scale. This study aims to investigate such solution properties of transport models with complex interactions between users. Generic formulations of models are considered in this study, both for utility functions and for the evolutionary dynamics relevant to the stability analysis. Such an analysis for a generic formulation is mathematically challenging due to the potential non-differentiability of the dynamical system, precluding the application of standard analyses for smooth systems. To address this issue, this study proposes a transport system with two alternatives and two user groups. While it is a simple model whose dynamics can be depicted on a plane, it also includes the core components of transport models, i.e. multiple choices and user-classes. This study classifies all possible formulations into nine cases with respect to the signs (i.e. positive or negative) of interactions between users. Then, the evolutionary dynamics of each case is mathematically analysed to examine stability of equilibria. Finally, the solution properties of each case is revealed. Multiple equilibria exist in many cases. In addition, cases with no stable equilibrium are also found, yet even in such cases we are able to characterise the circumstances in which the different kinds of unstable behaviour may arise

Digital exclusion: implications for human services practitioners

Issues around digital exclusion may be in their infancy but they are developing fast. The Internet has the potential to offer equity of digital access for enabling individual independence and empowerment in an increasingly digital society. However, for many users of assistive technologies, this remains a problematic scenario. Citizens, who already experience disablement through social failure to recognize difference and diversity of need, may be doubly disabled by exclusive digital policy and practice. There is an urgent need to research the implications of this exclusion for human service educators and practitioners

Estimating Markov Chain Mixing Times: Convergence Rate Towards Equilibrium of a Stochastic Process Traffic Assignment Model

Network equilibrium models have been extensively used for decades. The rationale for using equilibrium as a predictor is essentially that (i) a unique and globally stable equilibrium point is guaranteed to exist and (ii) the transient period over which a system adapts to a change is sufficiently short in time that it can be neglected. However, we find transport problems without a unique and stable equilibrium in the literature. Even if it exists, it is not certain how long it takes for the system to reach an equilibrium point after an external shock onto the transport system, such as infrastructure improvement and damage by a disaster. The day-to-day adjustment process must be analysed to answer these questions. Among several models, the Markov chain approach has been claimed to be the most general and flexible. It is also advantageous as a unique stationary distribution is guaranteed in mild conditions, even when a unique and stable equilibrium does not exist. In the present paper, we first aim to develop a methodology for estimating the Markov chain mixing time (MCMT), a worst-case assessment of the convergence time of a Markov chain to its stationary distribution. The main tools are coupling and aggregation, which enable us to analyse MCMTs in large-scale transport systems. Our second aim is to conduct a preliminary examination of the relationships between MCMTs and critical properties of the system, such as travellers’ sensitivity to differences in travel cost and the frequency of travellers’ revisions of their choices. Through analytical and numerical analyses, we found key relationships in a few transport problems, including those without a unique and stable equilibrium. We also showed that the proposed method, combined with coupling and aggregation, can be applied to larger transport models

Brownian bridges to submanifolds

We introduce and study Brownian bridges to submanifolds. Our method involves proving a general formula for the integral over a submanifold of the minimal heat kernel on a complete Riemannian manifold. We use the formula to derive lower bounds, an asymptotic relation and derivative estimates. We also see a connection to hypersurface local time. This work is motivated by the desire to extend the analysis of path and loop spaces to measures on paths which terminate on a submanifold

The impact of deep-sea fisheries and implementation of the UNGA Resolutions 61/105 and 64/72. Report of an international scientific workshop

The scientific workshop to review fisheries management, held in Lisbon in May 2011, brought together 22 scientists and fisheries experts from around the world to consider the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions on high seas bottom fisheries: what progress has been made and what the outstanding issues are. This report summarises the workshop conclusions, identifying examples of good practice and making recommendations in areas where it was agreed that the current management measures fall short of their target