Hierarchical network meta-analysis models to address sparsity of events and differing treatment classifications with regard to adverse outcomes

This is the accepted version of the article, which has been published in final form at DOI: 10.1002/sim.6131.Meta-analysis for adverse events resulting from medical interventions has many challenges, in part due to small numbers of such events within primary studies. Furthermore, variability in drug dose, potential differences between drugs within the same pharmaceutical class and multiple indications for a specific treatment can all add to the complexity of the evidence base. This paper explores the use of synthesis methods, incorporating mixed treatment comparisons, to estimate the risk of adverse events for a medical intervention, while acknowledging and modelling the complexity of the structure of the evidence base. The motivating example was the effect on malignancy of three anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drugs (etanercept, adalimumab and infliximab) indicated to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Using data derived from 13 primary studies, a series of meta-analysis models of increasing complexity were applied. Models ranged from a straightforward comparison of anti-TNF against non-anti-TNF controls, to more complex models in which a treatment was defined by individual drug and its dose. Hierarchical models to allow 'borrowing strength' across treatment classes and dose levels, and models involving constraints on the impact of dose level, are described. These models provide a flexible approach to estimating sparse, often adverse, outcomes associated with interventions. Each model makes its own set of assumptions, and approaches to assessing goodness of fit of the various models will usually be extremely limited in their effectiveness, due to the sparse nature of the data. Both methodological and clinical considerations are required to fit realistically complex models in this area and to evaluate their appropriateness.Partially supported by a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator Awar

The association between habitual physical activity and cigarette cravings, and influence of smokers' characteristics in disadvantaged smokers not ready to quit.

RATIONALE: Habitual physical activity (PA) may have an important role in suppressing cigarette cravings. Systematic reviews show a strong acute effect of bouts of PA on reducing cigarette cravings, and it may be that these effects accumulate. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to investigate the relationship between habitual levels of PA and cigarette cravings in disadvantaged smokers not ready to quit by examining baseline cross-sectional data from the Exercise Assisted Reduction then Stop smoking study (EARS). METHODS: A series of linear regression models were applied to investigate the relationship between habitual PA and cigarette cravings and to identify additional predictors of cigarette cravings. The analyses were extended by including interaction terms with PA to identify potential moderators of the relationship between PA and cravings. RESULTS: A higher level of moderate intensity PA was associated with lower cravings (p = 0.033). Additional predictors were the mood and physical symptoms scale (p = 0.007; higher scores were associated with higher cravings) and alcohol consumption (p = 0.002; higher consumption was associated with lower cravings). In addition, a moderation effect of alcohol consumption was found; at higher levels of alcohol consumption, higher PA was significantly associated with higher cravings (p = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, participation in regular PA is associated with reduced cigarette cravings; among those with heavy alcohol consumption, this participation is associated with higher cravings. These exploratory analyses suggest that further research into the relationship between PA, alcohol consumption and cigarette cravings is needed

A Facile Method for Generating Worm-like Micelles with Controlled Lengths and Narrow Polydispersity

This work shows that highly uniform worm micelles formed by polymerisation induced self-assembly can be obtained via simple postsynthesis sonication. Importantly, this straightforward and versatile strategy yields exceptionally monodisperse worms with tunable aspect ratios ranging from 7.2 to 17.6 by simply changing the sonication time

Genetic steps to organ laterality in zebrafish.

All internal organs are asymmetric along the left-right axis. Here we report a genetic screen to discover mutations which perturb organ laterality. Our particular focus is upon whether, and how, organs are linked to each other as they achieve their laterally asymmetric positions. We generated mutations by ENU mutagenesis and examined F3 progeny using a cocktail of probes that reveal early primordia of heart, gut, liver and pancreas. From the 750 genomes examined, we isolated seven recessive mutations which affect the earliest left-right positioning of one or all of the organs. None of these mutations caused discernable defects elsewhere in the embryo at the stages examined. This is in contrast to those mutations we reported previously (Chen et al., 1997) which, along with left-right abnormalities, cause marked perturbation in gastrulation, body form or midline structures. We find that the mutations can be classified on the basis of whether they perturb relationships among organ laterality. In Class 1 mutations, none of the organs manifest any left-right asymmetry. The heart does not jog to the left and normally leftpredominant BMP4 in the early heart tube remains symmetric. The gut tends to remain midline. There frequently is a remarkable bilateral duplication of liver and pancreas. Embryos with Class 2 mutations have organotypic asymmetry but, in any given embryo, organ positions can be normal, reversed or randomized. Class 3 reveals a hitherto unsuspected gene that selectively affects laterality of heart. We find that visceral organ positions are predicted by the direction of the preceding cardiac jog. We interpret this as suggesting that normally there is linkage between cardiac and visceral organ laterality. Class 1 mutations, we suggest, effectively remove the global laterality signals, with the consequence that organ positions are effectively symmetrical. Embryos with Class 2 mutations do manifest linkage among organs, but it may be reversed, suggesting that the global signals may be present but incorrectly orientated in some of the embryos. That laterality decisions of organs may be independently perturbed, as in the Class 3 mutation, indicates that there are distinctive pathways for reception and organotypic interpretation of the global signals

Quitting patient care and career break intentions among general practitioners in South West England: findings of a census survey of general practitioners

Objective: Given recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs’ career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years. Design: Census survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses , of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary. Setting: South West England (population 3.5  million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation. Participants: Eligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67 % response rate). Main outcome measures: Reported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for non-response. Results: Responders included 217 7 GPs engaged in patient care. Of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95%  CI 35 % to 39 %) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95%  CI 68 % to 72 %) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95%  CI 13 % to 16 %) reported high morale, while 1195 ( 54 % weighted, 95%  CI 52 % to 56 %) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs’ career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break. Conclusions: A substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period. Study registration: NIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700

Validation of Exercise Capacity as a Surrogate Endpoint in Exercise-Based Rehabilitation for Heart Failure: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordObjectives: This study sought to validate exercise capacity (EC) as a surrogate for mortality, hospitalization, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Background: EC is often used as a primary outcome in exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) trials of heart failure (HF) via direct cardiorespiratory assessment of maximum oxygen uptake (VO2peak) or through submaximal tests, such as the 6-min walk test (6MWT). Methods: After a systematic review, 31 randomized trials of exercise-based CR compared with no exercise control (4,784 HF patients) were included. Outcomes were pooled using random effects meta-analyses, and inverse variance weighted linear regression equations were fitted to estimate the relationship between the CR on EC and all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and HRQOL. Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ), R2 at trial level, and surrogate threshold effect (STE) were calculated. STE represents the intercept of the prediction band of the regression line with null effect on the final outcome. Results: Exercise-based CR is associated with positive effects on EC measured through VO2peak (+3.10 ml/kg/min; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01 to 4.20) or 6MWT (+41.15 m; 95% CI: 16.68 to 65.63) compared to control. The analyses showed a low level of association between improvements in EC (VO2peak or 6MWT) and mortality and hospitalization. Moderate levels of correlation between EC with HRQOL were seen (e.g., R2 <52%; |ρ| < 0.72). Estimated STE was an increase of 5 ml/kg/min for VO2peak and 80 m for 6MWT to predict a significant improvement in HRQOL. Conclusions: The study results indicate that EC is a poor surrogate endpoint for mortality and hospitalization but has moderate validity as a surrogate for HRQOL. Further research is needed to confirm these findings across other HF interventions.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)University of Exete

Associations between interarm differences in blood pressure and cardiovascular disease outcomes: protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis and development of a prognostic algorithm

This is the final version of the article. Available on open access from BMJ Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.There is another record for this publication in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32190INTRODUCTION: Individual cohort studies in various populations and study-level meta-analyses have shown interarm differences (IAD) in blood pressure to be associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. However, key questions remain, such as follows: (1) What is the additional contribution of IAD to prognostic risk estimation for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality? (2) What is the minimum cut-off value for IAD that defines elevated risk? (3) Is there a prognostic value of IAD and do different methods of IAD measurement impact on the prognostic value of IAD? We aim to address these questions by conducting an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will identify prospective cohort studies that measured blood pressure in both arms during recruitment, and invite authors to contribute IPD datasets to this collaboration. All patient data received will be combined into a single dataset. Using one-stage meta-analysis, we will undertake multivariable time-to-event regression modelling, with the aim of developing a new prognostic model for cardiovascular risk estimation that includes IAD. We will explore variations in risk contribution of IAD across predefined population subgroups (eg, hypertensives, diabetics), establish the lower limit of IAD that is associated with additional cardiovascular risk and assess the impact of different methods of IAD measurement on risk prediction. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study will not include any patient identifiable data. Included datasets will already have ethical approval and consent from their sponsors. Findings will be presented to international conferences and published in peer reviewed journals, and we have a comprehensive dissemination strategy in place with integrated patient and public involvement. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015031227.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Vitamin D and COVID-19 in older age: evidence versus expectations

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Royal College of General Practitioners via the DOI in this recordThe current global pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection originated in Wuhan, China, during December 2019; over 50 million cases have been diagnosed to date. Older age and comorbidity have proven to be key markers of risk for severity of COVID-19 and mortality,1,2 and residents of care homes have been proven to be at high risk. The Office for National Statistics has recorded 16 111 deaths related to COVID-19 in care home residents in England up to 20 November 2020.3 In the first wave of the pandemic, 46% of all excess deaths in England and Wales up to 7 August occurred in care homes.4 Older age is associated with increasing prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, which can affect up to 40% of care home residents.5 There is considerable overlap between the non-modifiable risk factors for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and those associated with deficiency of vitamin D. For example, age, ethnicity, diabetes, and chronic pulmonary and cardiac diseases; in addition, there is the observed trend towards greater severity of disease in northern latitudes. While these could imply an association between reduced vitamin D levels and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection this may simply be an ecological fallacy.6 Therefore, it is important to understand the strength of evidence provided by epidemiological and observational studies of COVID-19, and compare it with what is known from clinical trials of the impact of vitamin D supplementation on acute respiratory infections, including those due to SARS-CoV-2.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Combining behavioural activation with physical activity promotion for adults with depression: findings of a parallel-group pilot randomised controlled trial (BAcPAc)

BACKGROUND: Depression is associated with physical inactivity, which may mediate the relationship between depression and a range of chronic physical health conditions. However, few interventions have combined a psychological intervention for depression with behaviour change techniques, such as behavioural activation (BA), to promote increased physical activity. METHODS: To determine procedural and clinical uncertainties to inform a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT), a pilot parallel-group RCT was undertaken within two Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services in South West England. We aimed to recruit 80 adults with depression and randomise them to a supported, written self-help programme based on either BA or BA plus physical activity promotion (BAcPAc). Data were collected at baseline and 4 months post-randomisation to evaluate trial retention, intervention uptake and variance in outcomes to inform a sample size calculation. Qualitative data were collected from participants and psychological wellbeing practitioners (PWPs) to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the trial methods and the intervention. Routine data were collected to evaluate resource use and cost. RESULTS: Sixty people with depression were recruited, and a 73 % follow-up rate was achieved. Accelerometer physical activity data were collected for 64 % of those followed. Twenty participants (33 %) attended at least one treatment appointment. Interview data were analysed for 15 participants and 9 study PWPs. The study highlighted the challenges of conducting an RCT within existing IAPT services with high staff turnover and absences, participant scheduling issues, PWP and participant preferences for cognitive focussed treatment, and deviations from BA delivery protocols. The BAcPAc intervention was generally acceptable to patients and PWPs. CONCLUSIONS: Although recruitment procedures and data collection were challenging, participants generally engaged with the BAcPAc self-help booklets and reported willingness to increase their physical activity. A number of feasibility issues were identified, in particular the under-use of BA as a treatment for depression, the difficulty that PWPs had in adapting their existing procedures for study purposes and the instability of the IAPT PWP workforce. These problems would need to be better understood and resolved before proceeding to a full-scale RCT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN74390532 . Registered on 26 March 2013

Factors associated with study attrition in a pilot randomised controlled trial to explore the role of exercise-assisted reduction to stop (EARS) smoking in disadvantaged groups.

BACKGROUND: Study attrition has the potential to compromise a trial's internal and external validity. The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with participant attrition in a pilot trial of the effectiveness of a novel behavioural support intervention focused on increasing physical activity to reduce smoking, to inform the methods to reduce attrition in a definitive trial. METHODS: Disadvantaged smokers who wanted to reduce but not quit were randomised (N = 99), of whom 61 (62 %) completed follow-up assessments at 16 weeks. Univariable logistic regression was conducted to determine the effects of intervention arm, method of recruitment, and participant characteristics (sociodemographic factors, and lifestyle, behavioural and attitudinal characteristics) on attrition, followed by multivariable logistic regression on those factors found to be related to attrition. RESULTS: Participants with low confidence to quit, and who were undertaking less than 150 mins of moderate and vigorous physical activity per week at baseline were less likely to complete the 16-week follow-up assessment. Exploratory analysis revealed that those who were lost to follow-up early in the trial (i.e., by 4 weeks), compared with those completing the study, were younger, had smoked for fewer years and had lower confidence to quit in the next 6 months. Participants who recorded a higher expired air carbon monoxide reading at baseline were more likely to drop out late in the study, as were those recruited via follow-up telephone calls. Multivariable analyses showed that only completing less than 150 mins of physical activity retained any confidence in predicting attrition in the presence of other variables. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that those who take more effort to be recruited, are younger, are heavier smokers, have less confidence to quit, and are less physically active are more likely to withdraw or be lost to follow-up