The Role of Trust in the Divergent Development of Alternative Lending Channels in the UK and Germany

A large body of literature in the social sciences highlights the importance of trust as a necessary condition for economic exchange and the functioning of markets. By contrast, the relationship between trust and variation in financial market practices across national economies has received relatively little attention. This dissertation uses two alternative, non-bank lending channels in the period following the 2008 financial crisis as an empirical case study to analyse the influence of trust on the development of small business lending practices in the UK and Germany. A nested mixed methods design has been applied to the quantitative and qualitative analysis of unique, primary source loan transaction data, surveys of internet lending platforms, and surveys and semi-structured interviews with individual investors. Analysis of lending data finds different growth trajectories for each channel in each market, a pattern of development consistent with propositions of the Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) framework using its assumptions about the different institutional arrangements in liberal market economies (LMEs) and coordinated market economies (CMEs). Analysis of investor survey data and interviews provides a complimentary, trust-based explanation for these different development trajectories: there are unique social arrangements in the UK and Germany underlying their institutional arrangements and producing different forms of trust that investors rely on to assess the risk of lending in each channel. This dissertation argues that the VoC explanation for variation in the financing practices of firms across economies is incomplete because it fails to explain how societal arrangements and micro-foundations of trust influence the financing alternatives available to firms. This empirical study links comparative institutionalism and sociology of finance literatures by providing a more contextualised, holistic understanding of cross-national diversity of financial practices

Fintech and big tech credit: drivers of the growth of digital lending

Fintech and big tech companies are making rapid inroads into credit markets. We hand construct a global database of fintech and big tech lending volumes for 79 countries over 2013-2018. Using a panel regression analysis, we find these new forms of digital lending are larger in countries with higher GDP per capita (albeit at a declining rate), where banking sector mark-ups are higher, and where banking regulation is less stringent. We also find that these alternative forms of credit are more developed where the ease of doing business is greater, investor protection disclosure and the efficiency of the judicial system are more advanced, and where bond and equity markets are more developed. Overall, fintech and big tech credit seem to complement other forms of credit, rather than substitute for them

Rationale for a New Generation of Indicators for Coastal Waters

More than half the world\u27S human population lives within 100 km of the coast, and that number is expected to increase by 25% over the next two decades. Consequently, coastal ecosystems are at serious risk. Larger coastal populations and increasing development have led to increased loading of toxic substances, nutrients and pathogens with subsequent algal blooms, hypoxia, beach closures, and damage to coastal fisheries. Recent climate change has led to the rise in sea level with loss of coastal wetlands and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Coastal resources have traditionally been monitored on a stressor-by-stressor basis such as for nutrient loading or dissolved oxygen. To fully measure the complexities of coastal systems, we must develop a new set of ecologic indicators that span the realm of biological organization from genetic markers to entire ecosystems and are broadly applicable across geographic regions while integrating stressor types. We briefly review recent developments in ecologic indicators and emphasize the need for improvements in understanding of stress-response relationships, contributions of multiple stressors, assessments over different spatial and temporal scales, and reference conditions. We provide two examples of ecologic indicators that can improve our understanding of these inherent problems: a) the use of photopigments as indicators of the interactive effects of nutrients and hydrology, and b) biological community approaches that use multiple taxa to detect effects on ecosystem structure and function. These indicators are essential to measure the condition of coastal resources, to diagnose stressors, to communicate change to the public, and ultimately to protect human health and the quality of the coastal environment

Estimating a mean from delayed observations

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47652/1/440_2004_Article_BF00533314.pd

Financing U.S. Graduate Medical Education: A Policy Position Paper of the Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine and the American College of Physicians

In this position paper, the Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine and the American College of Physicians examine the state of graduate medical education (GME) financing in the United States and recent proposals to reform GME funding. They make a series of recommendations to reform the current funding system to better align GME with the needs of the nation's health care workforce. These recommendations include using Medicare GME funds to meet policy goals and to ensure an adequate supply of physicians, a proper specialty mix, and appropriate training sites; spreading the costs of financing GME across the health care system; evaluating the true cost of training a resident and establishing a single per-resident amount; increasing transparency and innovation; and ensuring that primary care residents receive training in well-functioning ambulatory settings that are financially supported for their training roles

Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

Background: The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings: Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools

The regret construct and how it influences choice

Includes bibliographical references (p. 25-26)