The President's Day cyclone 17-19 February 1979: An analysis of jet streak interactions prior to cyclogenesis

The President's Day cyclone, produced record breaking snowfall along the East Coast of the United States in February 1979. Conventional radiosonde data, SMS GOES infrared imagery and LFM 2 model diagnostics were used to analyze the interaction of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks prior to cyclogenesis. The analysis reveals that a series of complex scale interactive processes is responsible for the development of the intense cyclone. The evolution of the subsynoptic scale mass and momentum fields prior to and during the period of rapid development of the President's Day cyclone utilizing conventional data and SMS GOES imagery is documented. The interaction between upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks which occurred prior to the onset of cyclogenesis is discussed as well as the possible effects of terrain modified airflow within the precyclogenesis environment. Possible deficiencies in the LFM-2 initial wind fields that could have been responsible, in part, for the poor numerical forecast are examined

Toward autonomous spacecraft

Ways in which autonomous behavior of spacecraft can be extended to treat situations wherein a closed loop control by a human may not be appropriate or even possible are explored. Predictive models that minimize mean least squared error and arbitrary cost functions are discussed. A methodology for extracting cyclic components for an arbitrary environment with respect to usual and arbitrary criteria is developed. An approach to prediction and control based on evolutionary programming is outlined. A computer program capable of predicting time series is presented. A design of a control system for a robotic dense with partially unknown physical properties is presented

PC3 Breast and Prostate Cancer Productivity Costs: A Comparison of the Human Capital Approach and Friction Cost Approach

AbstractObjectivesProductivity costs constitute a substantial proportion of the total societal costs associated with cancer. We compared the results of applying two different analytical methods—the traditional human capital approach (HCA) and the emerging friction cost approach (FCA)—to estimate breast and prostate cancer productivity costs in Ireland in 2008.MethodsData from a survey of breast and prostate cancer patients were combined with population-level survival estimates and a national wage data set to calculate costs of temporary disability (cancer-related work absence), permanent disability (workforce departure, reduced working hours), and premature mortality.ResultsFor breast cancer, productivity costs per person using the HCA were €193,425 and those per person using the FCA were €8,103; for prostate cancer, the comparable estimates were €109,154 and €8,205, respectively. The HCA generated higher costs for younger patients (breast cancer) because of greater lifetime earning potential. In contrast, the FCA resulted in higher productivity costs for older male patients (prostate cancer) commensurate with higher earning capacity over a shorter time period. Reduced working hours postcancer was a key driver of total HCA productivity costs. HCA costs were sensitive to assumptions about discount and growth rates. FCA costs were sensitive to assumptions about the friction period.ConclusionsThe magnitude of the estimates obtained in this study illustrates the importance of including productivity costs when considering the economic impact of illness. Vastly different results emerge from the application of the HCA and the FCA, and this finding emphasizes the importance of choosing the study perspective carefully and being explicit about assumptions that underpin the methods

The MASSIVE Survey - VIII. Stellar Velocity Dispersion Profiles and Environmental Dependence of Early-Type Galaxies

We measure the radial profiles of the stellar velocity dispersions, $\sigma(R)$, for 90 early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the MASSIVE survey, a volume-limited integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) galaxy survey targeting all northern-sky ETGs with absolute $K$-band magnitude $M_K < -25.3$ mag, or stellar mass $M_* > 4 \times 10^{11} M_\odot$, within 108 Mpc. Our wide-field 107" $\times$ 107" IFS data cover radii as large as 40 kpc, for which we quantify separately the inner (2 kpc) and outer (20 kpc) logarithmic slopes $\gamma_{\rm inner}$ and $\gamma_{\rm outer}$ of $\sigma(R)$. While $\gamma_{\rm inner}$ is mostly negative, of the 56 galaxies with sufficient radial coverage to determine $\gamma_{\rm outer}$ we find 36% to have rising outer dispersion profiles, 30% to be flat within the uncertainties, and 34% to be falling. The fraction of galaxies with rising outer profiles increases with $M_*$ and in denser galaxy environment, with 10 of the 11 most massive galaxies in our sample having flat or rising dispersion profiles. The strongest environmental correlations are with local density and halo mass, but a weaker correlation with large-scale density also exists. The average $\gamma_{\rm outer}$ is similar for brightest group galaxies, satellites, and isolated galaxies in our sample. We find a clear positive correlation between the gradients of the outer dispersion profile and the gradients of the velocity kurtosis $h_4$. Altogether, our kinematic results suggest that the increasing fraction of rising dispersion profiles in the most massive ETGs are caused (at least in part) by variations in the total mass profiles rather than in the velocity anisotropy alone.Comment: Accepted/in press, MNRA

Modelling the propagation of underwater acoustic emissions for condition monitoring of marine renewable energy

3rd PRIMaRE conference, 5-6 July 2016, University of Bath, Bath, UKMarine Renewable Energy (MRE) has progressed towards commercialisation over the recent years but significant barriers still exist. This includes the currently high cost of energy, leaving MRE uncompetitive with respect to other more established renewable energy technologies. A significant proportion of this cost comes from Operation and Maintenance (O&M) activities. O&M activity can be reduced through the use of condition-based maintenance scheduling. In offshore environments, the submerged location of most devices enables the use of underwater Acoustic Emission (AE), a new condition-monitoring technique. It combines acoustics (used for environmental monitoring of MRE influence on noise levels) with AE condition monitoring as used in air. This paper assesses the practicality of such an approach in complex ocean environments through detailed sound propagation modelling using the propagation model Bellhop in the Matlab toolbox AcTUP. Results show that acoustic propagation is very sensitive to variations in the shallow water environments considered. When concerning sensor placement, multiple-path interferences mean that the location of the measuring sensor(s) needs to be carefully considered, but might not cover all environmental variations over the several months necessary for accurate long-term monitoring. Associated to the shallow depths, these environmental variations also mean that some frequencies cannot be back-propagated easily, generally limiting access to the monitoring of Received Levels. The results presented here are the first steps toward optimizing AE sensor positions and AE measuring strategies for arrays of devices.JW is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC grant NE/L002434/1) as part of the GW4+ Doctoral Training Partnership (http://www.nercgw4plus.ac.uk/). IB is funded through the SuperGen UK Centre for Marine Energy Research (EPSRC grant EP/M014738/1)

Remission vs low disease activity: function, quality of life and structural outcomes in the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study and Network

Objectives To examine associations between function, quality of life and structural outcomes in patients achieving remission vs low disease activity in early RA. Methods Demographic, clinical and radiographic variables were collected at baseline and then annually from the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (ERAS) and Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network (ERAN) inception cohorts in routine care from 1986 to 2012. Disease activity was categorized: mean DAS28 score between years 1 and 5: remission [mean remission DAS (mRDAS) <2.6] or low [mean low DAS (mLDAS) 2.6–3.2]; sustained low/remission DAS28 (sLDAS/sRDAS) at years 1 and 2; and sustained Boolean remission (sBR) at years 1 and 2. Changes in HAQ and Short Form 36 Health Survey Questionnaire [SF-36; physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component score]) and total Sharp van der Heijde (SvdH) scores for each disease activity category were modelled using multi-level models. Covariates included year of onset, age, gender and DMARD use at first visit. Results Of 2701 patients, 562 (21%) were categorized mRDAS, 330 (12%) mLDAS, 279 (10%) sRDAS, 203 (7.5%) sLDAS and 93 (3%) sBR. Patients categorized as mRDAS had increasingly divergent improved HAQ, SF-36 PCS, MCS and total SvdH scores compared with mLDAS (P-values 0.001 to <0.0001, all time points). Patients categorized as sRDAS had better HAQ, SF-36 PCS and MCS scores (P-values 0.05 to <0.0001, all time points) and SvdH scores (P = 0.05, years 3–5) over sLDAS. sBR was associated with better HAQ, and SF-36 PCS and MCS scores over sLDAS (P-values 0.002 to <0.0001, all time points). Conclusion These findings from routine care support ACR/EULAR guidelines that remission is a preferable goal over low disease activity in early RA.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Factors influencing the utilisation of free-standing and alongside midwifery units in England: a qualitative research study

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors influencing the provision, utilisation and sustainability of midwifery units (MUs) in England. DESIGN: Case studies, using individual interviews and focus groups, in six National Health Service (NHS) Trust maternity services in England. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: NHS maternity services in different geographical areas of England Maternity care staff and service users from six NHS Trusts: two Trusts where more than 20% of all women gave birth in MUs, two Trusts where less than 10% of all women gave birth in MUs and two Trusts without MUs. Obstetric, midwifery and neonatal clinical leaders, managers, service user representatives and commissioners were individually interviewed (n=57). Twenty-six focus groups were undertaken with midwives (n=60) and service users (n=52). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Factors influencing MU use. FINDINGS: The study findings identify several barriers to the uptake of MUs. Within a context of a history of obstetric-led provision and lack of decision-maker awareness of the clinical and economic evidence, most Trust managers and clinicians do not regard their MU provision as being as important as their obstetric unit (OU) provision. Therefore, it does not get embedded as an equal and parallel component in the Trust's overall maternity package of care. The analysis illuminates how implementation of complex interventions in health services is influenced by a range of factors including the medicalisation of childbirth, perceived financial constraints, adequate leadership and institutional norms protecting the status quo. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant obstacles to MUs reaching their full potential, especially free-standing midwifery units. These include the lack of commitment by providers to embed MUs as an essential service provision alongside their OUs, an absence of leadership to drive through these changes and the capacity and willingness of providers to address women's information needs. If these remain unaddressed, childbearing women's access to MUs will continue to be restricted

The MASSIVE Survey - VII. The Relationship of Angular Momentum, Stellar Mass and Environment of Early-Type Galaxies

We analyse the environmental properties of 370 local early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the MASSIVE and ATLAS3D surveys, two complementary volume-limited integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) galaxy surveys spanning absolute $K$-band magnitude $-21.5 > M_K > -26.6$, or stellar mass $8 \times 10^{9} < M_* < 2 \times 10^{12} M_\odot$. We find these galaxies to reside in a diverse range of environments measured by four methods: group membership (whether a galaxy is a brightest group/cluster galaxy, satellite, or isolated), halo mass, large-scale mass density (measured over a few Mpc), and local mass density (measured within the $N$th neighbour). The spatially resolved IFS stellar kinematics provide robust measurements of the spin parameter $\lambda_e$ and enable us to examine the relationship among $\lambda_e$, $M_*$, and galaxy environment. We find a strong correlation between $\lambda_e$ and $M_*$, where the average $\lambda_e$ decreases from $\sim 0.4$ to below 0.1 with increasing mass, and the fraction of slow rotators $f_{\rm slow}$ increases from $\sim 10$% to 90%. We show for the first time that at fixed $M_*$, there are almost no trends between galaxy spin and environment; the apparent kinematic morphology-density relation for ETGs is therefore primarily driven by $M_*$ and is accounted for by the joint correlations between $M_*$ and spin, and between $M_*$ and environment. A possible exception is that the increased $f_{\rm slow}$ at high local density is slightly more than expected based only on these joint correlations. Our results suggest that the physical processes responsible for building up the present-day stellar masses of massive galaxies are also very efficient at reducing their spin, in any environment.Comment: Accepted to MNRA