Quantifying exposure biases in early instrumental land surface air temperature observations

Exposure biases are a pervasive non-climatic change in land air temperature records which have been introduced as a result of changes in the way thermometers were sheltered from solar radiation and the elements over time. Exposure biases have not been widely accounted for in observational records, due to difficulties detecting/correcting the bias using traditional homogenisation techniques; therefore, exposure biases still contribute significant uncertainty to the early period in global temperature compilations. Here, an empirical approach to address the bias arising from the introduction of Stevenson-type screens from the late-19th century is presented. The approach consists of: (1) an empirical analysis of 54 parallel measurement series to identify the characteristics of the exposure bias in four exposure classes; (2) the development of bias-estimation models based on an analysis of which variables influence the bias; and (3) the application of the models to an extended version of CRUTEM5 (CRUTEM5_ext), based on exposure metadata, to quantify and reduce the bias. Step one identified differences between the temperatures recorded in Stevenson screens and early exposures, which vary seasonally, diurnally, and with location and exposure class. The largest biases (in mean temperatures) were found in freestanding exposures (up to −0.78°C annually) and in summer, while the smallest biases were generally found in wall-mounted exposures (near-0°C annually) and in winter. Significant relationships between the bias and temperature, downward top of atmosphere and/or received shortwave downward solar radiation were found in each exposure class and led to the development of three regression-based bias-estimation models. Application of these models to 1,960 mid-latitude stations in CRUTEM5_ext, resulted in small (≤0.016°C) positive adjustments to the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude mean before 1880, and larger (≤−0.1°C) negative adjustments to the Northern and Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude means between 1882–1934 and 1856–1900, respectively. Larger adjustments were estimated regionally: up to −0.57°C annually and −0.79°C seasonally in individual grid cells

Prenatal antidepressant use and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring:population based cohort study

textabstractObjective To assess the potential association between prenatal use of antidepressants and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in offspring. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Data from the Hong Kong population based electronic medical records on the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System. Participants 190 618 children born in Hong Kong public hospitals between January 2001 and December 2009 and followed-up to December 2015. Main outcome measure Hazard ratio of maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy and ADHD in children aged 6 to 14 years, with an average follow-up time of 9.3 years (range 7.4-11.0 years). Results Among 190 618 children, 1252 had a mother who used prenatal antidepressants. 5659 children (3.0%) were given a diagnosis of ADHD or received treatment for ADHD. The crude hazard ratio of maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy was 2.26 (P<0.01) compared with non-use. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, including maternal psychiatric disorders and use of other psychiatric drugs, the adjusted hazard ratio was reduced to 1.39 (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.82, P=0.01). Likewise, similar results were observed when comparing children of mothers who had used antidepressants before pregnancy with those who were never users (1.76, 1.36 to 2.30, P<0.01). The risk of ADHD in the children of mothers with psychiatric disorders was higher compared with the children of mothers without psychiatric disorders even if the mothers had never used antidepressants (1.84, 1.54 to 2.18, P<0.01). All sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. Sibling matched analysis identified no significant difference in risk of ADHD in siblings exposed to antidepressants during gestation and those not exposed during gestation (0.54, 0.17 to 1.74, P=0.30). Conclusions The findings suggest that the association between prenatal use of antidepressants and risk of ADHD in offspring can be partially explained by confounding by indication of antidepressants. If there is a causal association, the size of the effect is probably smaller than that reported previously

Pulp, Vol. 2 No. 1

This is the second issue of Pulp.https://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/pulp/1001/thumbnail.jp

Pulp, Vol. 2 No. 1

This is the second issue of Pulp.https://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/pulp/1001/thumbnail.jp

Association of Chronic Kidney Disease With Postoperative Outcomes: A National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Multi-specialty Surgical Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with higher incidence of major surgery. No studies have evaluated the association between preoperative kidney function and postoperative outcomes across a wide spectrum of procedures. We aimed to evaluate the association between CKD and 30-day postoperative outcomes across surgical specialties. METHODS: We selected adult patients undergoing surgery across eight specialties. The primary study endpoint was major complications, defined as death, unplanned reoperation, cardiac complication, or stroke within 30 days following surgery. Secondary outcomes included Clavien-Dindo high-grade complications, as well as cardiac, pulmonary, infectious, and thromboembolic complications. Multivariable regression was performed to evaluate the association between CKD and 30-day postoperative complications, adjusted for baseline characteristics, surgical specialty, and operative time. RESULTS: In total, 1,912,682 patients were included. The odds of major complications (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.07, 2.21]), death (aOR 3.03 [95% CI: 2.88, 3.19]), unplanned reoperation (aOR 1.57 [95% CI: 1.51, 1.64]), cardiac complication (aOR 3.51 [95% CI: 3.25, 3.80]), and stroke (aOR 1.89 [95% CI: 1.64, 2.17]) were greater for patients with CKD stage 5 vs. stage 1. A similar pattern was observed for the secondary endpoints. CONCLUSION: This population-based study demonstrates the negative impact of CKD on operative outcomes across a diverse range of procedures and patients

Clinical impact of genomic testing in patients with suspected monogenic kidney disease

Purpose: To determine the diagnostic yield and clinical impact of exome sequencing (ES) in patients with suspected monogenic kidney disease. Methods: We performed clinically accredited singleton ES in a prospectively ascertained cohort of 204 patients assessed in multidisciplinary renal genetics clinics at four tertiary hospitals in Melbourne, Australia. Results: ES identified a molecular diagnosis in 80 (39%) patients, encompassing 35 distinct genetic disorders. Younger age at presentation was independently associated with an ES diagnosis (p < 0.001). Of those diagnosed, 31/80 (39%) had a change in their clinical diagnosis. ES diagnosis was considered to have contributed to management in 47/80 (59%), including negating the need for diagnostic renal biopsy in 10/80 (13%), changing surveillance in 35/80 (44%), and changing the treatment plan in 16/80 (20%). In cases with no change to management in the proband, the ES result had implications for the management of family members in 26/33 (79%). Cascade testing was subsequently offered to 40/80 families (50%). Conclusion: In this pragmatic pediatric and adult cohort with suspected monogenic kidney disease, ES had high diagnostic and clinical utility. Our findings, including predictors of positive diagnosis, can be used to guide clinical practice and health service design

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother–child pairs

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother–child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother–child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother-child pairs

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother-child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother-child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD

BHPR research: qualitative1. Complex reasoning determines patients' perception of outcome following foot surgery in rheumatoid arhtritis

Background: Foot surgery is common in patients with RA but research into surgical outcomes is limited and conceptually flawed as current outcome measures lack face validity: to date no one has asked patients what is important to them. This study aimed to determine which factors are important to patients when evaluating the success of foot surgery in RA Methods: Semi structured interviews of RA patients who had undergone foot surgery were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of interviews was conducted to explore issues that were important to patients. Results: 11 RA patients (9 ♂, mean age 59, dis dur = 22yrs, mean of 3 yrs post op) with mixed experiences of foot surgery were interviewed. Patients interpreted outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, frequently positive change in one aspect contrasted with negative opinions about another. Overall, four major themes emerged. Function: Functional ability & participation in valued activities were very important to patients. Walking ability was a key concern but patients interpreted levels of activity in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on change in functional ability more than overall level. Positive feelings of improved mobility were often moderated by negative self perception ("I mean, I still walk like a waddling duck”). Appearance: Appearance was important to almost all patients but perhaps the most complex theme of all. Physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet patients saw these as distinct separate concepts. Patients need to legitimize these feelings was clear and they frequently entered into a defensive repertoire ("it's not cosmetic surgery; it's something that's more important than that, you know?”). Clinician opinion: Surgeons' post operative evaluation of the procedure was very influential. The impact of this appraisal continued to affect patients' lasting impression irrespective of how the outcome compared to their initial goals ("when he'd done it ... he said that hasn't worked as good as he'd wanted to ... but the pain has gone”). Pain: Whilst pain was important to almost all patients, it appeared to be less important than the other themes. Pain was predominately raised when it influenced other themes, such as function; many still felt the need to legitimize their foot pain in order for health professionals to take it seriously ("in the end I went to my GP because it had happened a few times and I went to an orthopaedic surgeon who was quite dismissive of it, it was like what are you complaining about”). Conclusions: Patients interpret the outcome of foot surgery using a multitude of interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than other factors in the overall outcome of the surgery. Future research into foot surgery should incorporate the complexity of how patients determine their outcome Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes