Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss of land area due to coastal and hillslope erosion and sea level change; loss of plant and animal species, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity; loss of human lives, homelands, and cultural identity. Attribution to anthropogenic climate change is analyzed based on recent progress following from the IPCC AR5. Generally, high confidence in attributing irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change is found in physical systems and more specifically in cryosphere environments, both in mountain and polar regions. Detected loss in terrestrial ecosystems has typically low confidence in attribution whereas loss in some ocean ecosystems (corals) has high confidence. Impacts in human systems that may be classified as irreversible loss are of low confidence in terms of attribution except for the Arctic where higher confidence for a relation with anthropogenic emissions was found. Our analysis suggests that scientific progress in detection and attribution is now at a level that would likely allow policy, or courts, to define mechanisms, or take decisions, as related to irreversible loss in many cryosphere systems. On the other hand, policy may need to consider that at least in the near future it will be difficult to establish clear tracks between irreversible loss in most human systems and anthropogenic climate change, a domain, which however is at the forefront of discussions. We end our discussion with setting out ideas for further clarification of different categories of irreversible loss, including in human systems, and the role of attribution in any policy or legal mechanism in order to help in the development of just and sensible solutions

IIASA/EQU Justice Framework: A descriptive guideline for science and policy

The consideration of justice has become a critical area of focus for researchers, as awareness is increasing that (perceived) injustices are a main barrier for effectively tackling the interconnected global grand challenges, such as the climate and the biodiversity crises. Insufficient attention to perceptions of justice is a major issue slowing progress on climate change and other major policy issues. Justice, however, is difficult to grasp as it is a multi-dimensional and culturally diverse term and is in many instances of global socio-environmental issues not formally institutionalized. This working paper introduces the first version of the IIASA/EQU justice framework, which comprehensively outlines justice in its multiple aspects with the aim to facilitate justice assessment across diverse research and policy contexts. It is thus a descriptive framework with no normative objectives. The framework is grounded in philosophy and is applied and tested in a variety of applications, to be useful for research and decision-making. It is meant to be accessible across disciplines, powerful in terms of capacity to express a variety of justice ideas, and modular so researchers can select and deploy the aspects that are most appropriate or useful. The framework as presented here serves as a baseline for further refinement, expansion, applications, and evaluation across disciplines, subject areas, and cultural backgrounds

A typology of loss and damage perspectives

Loss and Damage (L&D) has been the subject of contentious debate in international climate policy for several decades. Recently, formal mechanisms on L&D have been established, but arguably through unclear language. This ambiguity is politically important, but researchers and practitioners require clearer understandings of L&D. Here we report on the first in-depth empirical study of actor perspectives, including interviews with 38 key stakeholders in research, practice, and policy. We find points of agreement and also important distinctions in terms of: the relationship between L&D and adaptation, the emphasis on avoiding versus addressing L&D, the relevance of anthropogenic climate change, and the role of justice. A typology of four perspectives is identified, with different implications for research priorities and actions to address L&D. This typology enables improved understanding of existing perspectives and so has potential to facilitate more transparent discussion of the options available to address L&D

The creatine kinase system and pleiotropic effects of creatine

The pleiotropic effects of creatine (Cr) are based mostly on the functions of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK) and its high-energy product phosphocreatine (PCr). Multidisciplinary studies have established molecular, cellular, organ and somatic functions of the CK/PCr system, in particular for cells and tissues with high and intermittent energy fluctuations. These studies include tissue-specific expression and subcellular localization of CK isoforms, high-resolution molecular structures and structure–function relationships, transgenic CK abrogation and reverse genetic approaches. Three energy-related physiological principles emerge, namely that the CK/PCr systems functions as (a) an immediately available temporal energy buffer, (b) a spatial energy buffer or intracellular energy transport system (the CK/PCr energy shuttle or circuit) and (c) a metabolic regulator. The CK/PCr energy shuttle connects sites of ATP production (glycolysis and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation) with subcellular sites of ATP utilization (ATPases). Thus, diffusion limitations of ADP and ATP are overcome by PCr/Cr shuttling, as most clearly seen in polar cells such as spermatozoa, retina photoreceptor cells and sensory hair bundles of the inner ear. The CK/PCr system relies on the close exchange of substrates and products between CK isoforms and ATP-generating or -consuming processes. Mitochondrial CK in the mitochondrial outer compartment, for example, is tightly coupled to ATP export via adenine nucleotide transporter or carrier (ANT) and thus ATP-synthesis and respiratory chain activity, releasing PCr into the cytosol. This coupling also reduces formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and inhibits mitochondrial permeability transition, an early event in apoptosis. Cr itself may also act as a direct and/or indirect anti-oxidant, while PCr can interact with and protect cellular membranes. Collectively, these factors may well explain the beneficial effects of Cr supplementation. The stimulating effects of Cr for muscle and bone growth and maintenance, and especially in neuroprotection, are now recognized and the first clinical studies are underway. Novel socio-economically relevant applications of Cr supplementation are emerging, e.g. for senior people, intensive care units and dialysis patients, who are notoriously Cr-depleted. Also, Cr will likely be beneficial for the healthy development of premature infants, who after separation from the placenta depend on external Cr. Cr supplementation of pregnant and lactating women, as well as of babies and infants are likely to be of benefit for child development. Last but not least, Cr harbours a global ecological potential as an additive for animal feed, replacing meat- and fish meal for animal (poultry and swine) and fish aqua farming. This may help to alleviate human starvation and at the same time prevent over-fishing of oceans

Ubiquitous mitochondrial creatine kinase downregulated in oral squamous cell carcinoma

In this study, we performed two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time of fly mass spectrometry to identify the protein(s) associated with the development of oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) by comparing patterns of OSCC-derived cell lines with normal oral keratinocytes (NOKs), and found that downregulation of ubiquitous mitochondrial creatine kinase (CKMT1) could be a good candidate. Decreased levels of CKMT1 mRNA and protein were detected in all OSCC-derived cell lines examined (n=9) when compared to those in primary normal oral keratinocytes. Although no sequence variation in the coding region of the CKMT1 gene with the exception of a nonsense mutation in exon 8 was identified in these cell lines, we found a frequent hypermethylation in the CpG island region. CKMT1 expression was restored by experimental demethylation. In addition, when we transfected CKMT1 into the cell lines, they showed an apoptotic phenotype but no invasiveness. In clinical samples, high frequencies of CKMT1 downregulation were detected by immunohistochemistry (19 of 52 (37%)) and quantitative real-time RT–PCR (21 of 50 (42%)). Furthermore, the CKMT1 expression status was significantly correlated with tumour differentiation (P<0.0001). These results suggest that the CKMT1 gene is frequently inactivated during oral carcinogenesis and that an epigenetic mechanism may regulate loss of expression, which may lead to block apoptosis

Science for loss and damage. Findings and propositions

The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015. Despite advances, the debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts, methods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and often contested. This book, a joint effort of the Loss and Damage Network—a partnership effort by scientists and practitioners from around the globe—provides evidence-based insight into the L&D discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research conducted across multiple disciplines, by showcasing applications in practice and by providing insight into policy contexts and salient policy options. This introductory chapter summarises key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking suggestions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk management can be an effective entry point for aligning perspectives and debates, if framed comprehensively, coupled with climate justice considerations and linked to established risk management and adaptation practice; (2) Attribution science is advancing rapidly and fundamental to informing actions to minimise, avert, and address losses and damages; (3) Climate change research, in addition to identifying physical/hard limits to adaptation, needs to more systematically examine soft limits to adaptation, for which we find some evidence across several geographies globally; (4) Climate risk insurance mechanisms can serve the prevention and cure aspects emphasised in the L&D debate but solidarity and accountability aspects need further attention, for which we find tentative indication in applications around the world; (5) Policy deliberations may need to overcome the perception that L&D constitutes a win-lose negotiation “game” by developing a more inclusive narrative that highlights collective ambition for tackling risks, mutual benefits and the role of transformation

Determinants of muscle carnosine content

The main determinant of muscle carnosine (M-Carn) content is undoubtedly species, with, for example, aerobically trained female vegetarian athletes [with circa 13 mmol/kg dry muscle (dm)] having just 1/10th of that found in trained thoroughbred horses. Muscle fibre type is another key determinant, as type II fibres have a higher M-Carn or muscle histidine containing dipeptide (M-HCD) content than type I fibres. In vegetarians, M-Carn is limited by hepatic synthesis of β-alanine, whereas in omnivores this is augmented by the hydrolysis of dietary supplied HCD’s resulting in muscle levels two or more times higher. β-alanine supplementation will increase M-Carn. The same increase in M-Carn occurs with administration of an equal molar quantity of carnosine as an alternative source of β-alanine. Following the cessation of supplementation, M-Carn returns to pre-supplementation levels, with an estimated t1/2 of 5–9 weeks. Higher than normal M-Carn contents have been noted in some chronically weight-trained subjects, but it is unclear if this is due to the training per se, or secondary to changes in muscle fibre composition, an increase in β-alanine intake or even anabolic steroid use. There is no measureable loss of M-Carn with acute exercise, although exercise-induced muscle damage may result in raised plasma concentrations in equines. Animal studies indicate effects of gender and age, but human studies lack sufficient control of the effects of diet and changes in muscle fibre composition

The Pathogenic Potential of Campylobacter concisus Strains Associated with Chronic Intestinal Diseases

Campylobacter concisus has garnered increasing attention due to its association with intestinal disease, thus, the pathogenic potential of strains isolated from different intestinal diseases was investigated. A method to isolate C. concisus was developed and the ability of eight strains from chronic and acute intestinal diseases to adhere to and invade intestinal epithelial cells was determined. Features associated with bacterial invasion were investigated using comparative genomic analyses and the effect of C. concisus on host protein expression was examined using proteomics. Our isolation method from intestinal biopsies resulted in the isolation of three C. concisus strains from children with Crohn's disease or chronic gastroenteritis. Four C. concisus strains from patients with chronic intestinal diseases can attach to and invade host cells using mechanisms such as chemoattraction to mucin, aggregation, flagellum-mediated attachment, “membrane ruffling”, cell penetration and damage. C. concisus strains isolated from patients with chronic intestinal diseases have significantly higher invasive potential than those from acute intestinal diseases. Investigation of the cause of this increased pathogenic potential revealed a plasmid to be responsible. 78 and 47 proteins were upregulated and downregulated in cells infected with C. concisus, respectively. Functional analysis of these proteins showed that C. concisus infection regulated processes related to interleukin-12 production, proteasome activation and NF-κB activation. Infection with all eight C. concisus strains resulted in host cells producing high levels of interleukin-12, however, only strains capable of invading host cells resulted in interferon-γ production as confirmed by ELISA. These findings considerably support the emergence of C. concisus as an intestinal pathogen, but more significantly, provide novel insights into the host immune response and an explanation for the heterogeneity observed in the outcome of C. concisus infection. Moreover, response to infection with invasive strains has substantial similarities to that observed in the inflamed mucosa of Crohn's disease patients

Incubating Isolated Mouse EDL Muscles with Creatine Improves Force Production and Twitch Kinetics in Fatigue Due to Reduction in Ionic Strength

Creatine supplementation can improve performance during high intensity exercise in humans and improve muscle strength in certain myopathies. In this present study, we investigated the direct effects of acute creatine incubation on isolated mouse fast-twitch EDL muscles, and examined how these effects change with fatigue. muscle from mice aged 12–14 weeks was isolated and stimulated with field electrodes to measure force characteristics in 3 different states: (i) before fatigue; (ii) immediately after a fatigue protocol; and (iii) after recovery. These served as the control measurements for the muscle. The muscle was then incubated in a creatine solution and washed. The measurement of force characteristics in the 3 different states was then repeated. In un-fatigued muscle, creatine incubation increased the maximal tetanic force. In fatigued muscle, creatine treatment increased the force produced at all frequencies of stimulation. Incubation also increased the rate of twitch relaxation and twitch contraction in fatigued muscle. During repetitive fatiguing stimulation, creatine-treated muscles took 55.1±9.5% longer than control muscles to lose half of their original force. Measurement of weight changes showed that creatine incubation increased EDL muscle mass by 7%. sensitivity of contractile proteins as a result of ionic strength decreases following creatine incubation