Peramalan Parameter Cuaca Jakarta Kemayoran dengan Menggunakan Algoritma Grammatical Evolution

ABSTRAKSI: Cuaca merupakan sebuah keadaan udara atau atmosfer pada suatu wilayah yang relatif sempit dan memiliki jangka waktu yang singkat dengan komponen parameter utamanya yaitu suhu, curah hujan, lama penyinaran matahari, tekanan udara, kecepatan angin, dan kelembaban. Cuaca merupakan masalah yang masih dialami oleh masyarakat, khususnya dalam peramalan cuaca. Semakin tingginya keinginan masyarakat untuk bisa mengetahui keadaan cuaca di hari kedepannya secara akurat, banyak peneliti yang sampai sekarang terus mengembangkan penelitian tentang peramalan cuaca. Banyak metode statistika dan Artificial Intelegent sudah digunakan untuk penelitian peramalan cuaca dengan berdasarkan data Time Series untuk bisa mengetahui pola data historis untuk meramalkan keadaan cuaca untuk kedepannya.Pada Tugas Akhir ini memanfaatkan metode Evolutionary Computation (EC) dengan menggunakan algoritma Grammatical Evolution (GE) dengan menggunakan representasi Backus Naur Form (BNF) untuk meramalkan parameter cuaca. GE mempunyai kemampuan memberikan solusi dalam bentuk fungsi yang bertipe linier maupun nonlinier yang diharapkan bisa mendekati pola data baik linier maupun nonlinier. Data diambil dari data iklim BMKG Jakarta Kemayoran yang nantinya dengan memanfaatkan algoritma GE untuk mendapatkan hasil peramalan parameter cuaca jakarta kemayoran yang optimal.Algoritma Grammatical Evolution dengan BNF yang ditentukan memberikan hasil nilai akurasi cukup baik dan layak untuk peramalan suhu H+1 sampai H+7 dengan akurasi 80% sampai 87%. Sedangkan untuk peramalan kecepatan angin H+1 sampai H+7 dengan nilai akurasi yang cukup baik dan layak yaitu 83% sampai 86%. Untuk peramalan kelembaban menghasilkan nilai akurasi yang cukup baik dan layak hanya untuk peramalan H+1 yaitu 81%. Sedangkan untuk peramalan tekanan udara menghasilkan nilai akurasi yang cukup baik dan layak hanya sampai H+1 yaitu 85%. Untuk peramalan curah hujan memiliki nilai akurasi yang kurang baik dan tidak layak untuk peramalan H+1 sampai H+7 dengan nilai akurasi 65% sehingga fungsi yang dihasilkan tidak layak digunakan untuk peramalan curah hujan. Sedangkan lama penyinaran matahari masih mempunyai nilai akurasi yang kurang baik dan tidak layak dengan nilai akurasi yaitu rentang 11% sampai 17% sehingga fungsi yang dihasilkan tidak layak digunakan untuk peramalan lama penyinaran matahari.Kata Kunci : peramalan, data time series, Evolutionary Computation (EC), Grammatical Evolution(GE)ABSTRACT: Weather is a state of air or atmosphere in a relatively narrow region and has a short period of time with the main parameters of the components are temperature, rainfall, lenght of radiation, air pressure, wind speed, and humidity. The weather is an issue that is still being experienced by the community, especially in weather forecasting. As the increasing desire of peoples to be able to know the weather conditions in the future accurately, many researchers continues to expand research on weather forecasting until now. Many statistical methods and Artificial Intelligent has been used for weather forecasting research based on Time Series data to be able to determine the pattern of historical data to forecast weather conditions for the future.In this final project utilizing methods of Evolutionary Computation(EC) algorithm using grammatical evolution (GE) with are presentation of Backus Naur Form(BNF) to forecast weather parameters. GE has ability to provide a solutions in a function forms both linear and non linier. Data taken from climate BMKG Jakarta Kemayoran that later will used by GE algorithm to produce the optimal parameters for weather forecasting in Jakarta.Grammatical Evolution algorithms specified by BNF gives quite good results accuracy value and worth for temperature forecasting one day to seven days a head with the accuracy range from 80% to 87%, where as the wind speed forecasting one day to seven days a head produce fairly good accuracy the value and worth, 83% to 86%. For humidity forecasting accuracy is quite good value and worth only for one day is forecasting, 81%. While for air pressure forecasting produces a fairly good accuracy the value and worth only for one day, it is 85%. For rain fall forecasting has bad accuracy values and unfit for forecasting one day to seven day a head with 65% accuracy values so the function result is not suitable to be used for rainfall forecasting. For lenght of radiation,still have bad accuracy and not worth,the value of the accuracy range from 11% to 17%, so the function result is not suitable to be used for lenght of radiation forecasting.Keyword: Forecasting, time series data, Evolutionary Computation (EC), Grammatical Evolution(GE

PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN KESELAMATAN DAN KESEHATAN KERJA (K3) TERHADAP PRODUKTIFITAS KERJA PADA KARYAWAN BAGIAN OPERATOR MESIN DALAM DI PT DOK DAN PERKAPALAN SURABAYA (PERSERO)

Abstrak Lingkungan kerja pada bagian mesin dalam di PT. Dok dan Perkapalan Surabaya (persero). Sudah menerapkan keselamatan serta kesehatan kepada para pekerjanya hal tersebut bertujuan untuk meningkatan disiplin kerja yang dapat mempengaruhi produktifitas karyawan. Namun pada perjalanannya, masih banyak pekerja yang kurang memiliki kesadaran untuk melaksanakan kesehatan dan keselamatan kerja yang sesuai standart perusahaan seperti, kurangya kesadaran dalam penggunan APD (Alat Pelindung Diri) dan belum melakukan Standart operational Prodsedur kerja secara aman sehingga berisiko terhadap suatu kecelakaan kerja yang nantinya akan mengganggu kinerja karyawan tersebut yang berdampak terhadap pemenuhan target yang telah ditetapkan perusahaan tersebut. Untuk itu penelitian ini di laksanakan dengan tujuan mencari tahu ada atau tidaknya pengaruh pelaksanaan (K3) kesehatan dan keselamatan kerja terhadap produktivitas kerja karyawan bagian operator mesin dalam di PT. Dok dan Perkapalan Surabaya (persero). metode penelitian yang digunakan ialah penelitian Deskriptif kuantitatif dan pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah, observasi, angket dan dokumentasi. Dengan objek penlitian pada karyawan sebanyak 10 orang karyawan. Hasil penelitian pada intrumen angket dan data pengamatan menyimpulkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan antara keselamatan dan kesehatan kerja (K3) terhadap produktifitas kerja karyawan bagian operator mesin dalam di PT. Dok dan Perkapalan Surabaya (persero)”. Dengan nilai r hitung 0,641 dan uji t hitung diperoleh 2,359. koefisien determinasi diperoleh 0,410. Selanjutnya pada tabel Pengamatan didapat nilai r hitung 0,643. hasil uji t hitung diperoleh 2,377. koefisien determinasi diperoleh 0,413.Kata Kunci: Keselamatan dan Kesehatan Kerja (K3), Produktifitas, Operator Mesin , Uji T.AbstractThe work environment on the inside machine at PT. Doc and Shipping Surabaya (Persero). Already applying safety and health to its workers it aims to improve work discipline that can affect employee productivity. But on the way, there are still many workers who do not have the awareness to carry out occupational health and safety in accordance with company standards, such as lack of awareness in the use of PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) and have not carried out operational Standards for safe work procedures so that there is a risk of a work accident that will later will disrupt the employees performance which has an impact on meeting the targets set by the company. For this reason, this research was carried out with the aim of finding out whether or not the effect of the implementation of (K3) occupational health and safety on the work productivity of employees in the machine operator section at PT. Doc and Shipping (Persero). The research method used is quantitative descriptive research and data collection used is, observation, questionnaire and documentation. With the object of research on employees as many as 10 employees. The results of the research on questionnaire instruments and observational data conclude that there is a significant influence between occupational safety and health (K3) on the work productivity of employees of the machine operator section at PT. Surabaya Docs and Shipping (Persero) ". With the value of r count 0.641 and t test obtained 2,359. The coefficient of determination is 0.410. Furthermore, in the Observation table the r count value is 0.643. And the t test was obtained 2,377. The coefficient of determination obtained 0.413. Keywords: Occupational Safety and Health (K3), Productivity, Machine Operators, T Tes

HUBUNGAN ANTARA STRES AKADEMIK DENGAN PROKRASTINASI PADA MAHASISWA JURUSAN X YANG PERNAH MENJALANI PEMBELAJARAN ONLINE DI MASA PANDEMI COVID-19

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan antara stres akademik dengan prokrastinasi pada mahasiswa jurusan X yang pernah menjalani pembelajaran online selama masa pandemi Covid-19. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dengan pendekatan korelasional. Populasi dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 180 mahasiswa dengan sampel penelitian sebanyak 147 mahasiswa. Teknik pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah teknik probability sampling. Instrumen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu skala stres akademik dan skala prokrastinasi. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan yaitu menggunakan uji asumsi dan uji hipotesis dengan bantuan SPSS 25.0. Untuk uji asumsi dilakukan uji normalitas dengan menggunakan uji Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test dan uji linearitas dengan menggunakan uji ANOVA, sedangkan uji hipotesis menggunakan teknik korelasi product moment. Kata Kunci : Stres Akademik, Prokrastinasi, Mahasiswa, Pembelajaran Online   Abstract This study aims to determine the relationship between academic stress and procrastination in X major students who have undergone online learning during the Covid-19 pandemic. The method used in this study is a quantitative method with a correlational approach. The population in this study were 180 students with a sample of 147 students. The sampling technique used is probability sampling technique. The instruments used in this research are academic stress scale and procrastination scale. The data analysis technique used is assumption testing and hypothesis testing with the help of SPSS 25.0. For the assumption test, normality test was performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and linearity test using the ANOVA test, while the hypothesis test used the product moment correlation technique.  Keywords: Academic Stress, Procrastination, Students, Online Learning   &nbsp

SIMULASI ALIRAN DAYA PADA PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA MESIN GAS (PLTMG) BADAS UNTUK SISTEM KELISTRIKAN SUMBAWA BESAR MENGGUNAKAN SOFTWARE ETAP 16

Electric power system is a process of electrical energy generation to dispense to users. A well-integrated system provides quality assurance for system reliability. Analysis is conducted to minimize dispensing losses. The electrical system of Sumbawa Besar is currently in the process of upgrading 150 KV transmission distribution capacity with PLTMG BADAS as the largest generation center. The research was conducted by analyzing the power flow on PLTMG BADAS for the electrical system of Sumbawa Besar which was reviewed on 20 KV bus system, and by simulating using ETAP 16 software . The research method is done with data derived from Sumbawa's PLN and analysis of the power flow calculation using the method Newton-Raphson precision value 0.0001. The simulation is performed on three generation scenarios, namely: 1) Operation 1 PLTMG engine, 2) operation 2 PLTMG engines, 3) operation of the entire PLTMG machine. All three scenarios are done under normal operating conditions. Simulated results show that the analysis of power flows by Newton-Raphson method generates 2 iterations in each scenario, and the following parameters are obtained: 1) average of the highest voltage value in Scenario 1 OF 20.43 KV With phase angle-14.3, 2) Total active power – highest reactive in Scenario 2 of 44.475 MW and 9.557 MVAR, 3) Scenario 1 has the lowest power loss of 2.634 MW and 5.168 MVAR and voltage fall by 2.275%.Sistem tenaga listrik merupakan proses dari pembangkitan energi listrik hingga penyaluran kepada pengguna. Sistem yang terintegrasi dengan baik memberikan jaminan mutu untuk keandalan sistem. Analisis dilakukan guna meminimalisir rugi-rugi penyaluran. Sistem kelistrikan Sumbawa Besar saat ini dalam proses peningkatan kapasitas penyaluran transmisi 150 KV dengan PLTMG BADAS sebagai pusat pembangkitan terbesar. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menganalisis aliran daya pada PLTMG BADAS untuk sistem kelistrikan Sumbawa Besar yang ditinjau pada bus sistem 20 KV, dan dengan simulasi menggunakan software ETAP 16. Metode penelitian dilakukan dengan data berasal dari PLN Sumbawa dan analisis perhitungan aliran daya menggunakan metode Newton Raphson nilai presisi 0,0001. Simulasi dilakukan pada tiga skenario pembangkitan, yaitu: 1) Operasi 1 mesin PLTMG, 2) Operasi 2 mesin PLTMG, 3) Operasi seluruh mesin PLTMG. Ketiga skenario dilakukan pada kondisi operasi normal. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa analisis aliran daya dengan metode Newton-Raphson menghasilkan 2 kali iterasi pada setiap skenario, dan diperoleh parameter sebagai berikut: 1) Rata-rata nilai tegangan tertinggi pada skenario 1 sebesar 20,43 KV dengan sudut fasa -14,3, 2) Total daya Aktif – Reaktif tertinggi pada skenario 2 sebesar 44,475 MW dan 9,557 MVAR, 3) Skenario 1 memiliki rugi-rugi daya terendah sebesar 2,634 MW dan 5,168 MVAR serta tegangan jatuh sebesar 2,275

Analisis Pembangunan Wilayah Tertinggal di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Regional development in disadvantaged areas in an effort to develop the economic potential so as to have competitiveness and boost economic growth. This study aimed to analyze the economic potential and economic performance of the sector in each region lagging East Java Province that could affect GRDP growth and could be a priority in the implementation of regional development. This study uses secondary data in the form GRDP data, with analysis tools Location Quotient and Shift Share Esteban Marquillas, which consist of the data time series during the period from 2009 to 2013, using the GRDP 9 sectors and cross section 4 underdeveloped districts in East Java. The result of this study indicate that the tool Location Quotient, a sector basis contained in the district of Bondowoso is the agricultural sector, a sector basis in Situbondo district is agricultural sector, trade, hotels and restaurants sector, a sector basis in Sampang district is agricultural sector, mining and quarrying sector, a sector basis in Bangkalan district is agricultural sector, construction sector and services sector. From the analysis of the Shift Share Esteban Marquillas sector with competitiveness (competitive) in the Bondowoso district is agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, electricity, gas and water supply sector, construction sector. A competitive sector in Situbondo district is agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, electricity, gas and water supply sector. A competitive sector in Sampang district is agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, trade, hotels and restaurants sector, finance, leasing and corporate services sector, services sector and a competitive sector in Bangkalan district is agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, trade, hotels and restaurants sector, finance, leasing and corporate services sector and services sector. The overall results of these studies demonstrate the implications that the development in disadvantaged areas still not evenly so that it takes the development priorities like as developing the local economy through the use of local resources and community empowerment through increased people's access to education and health services, job creation and the ability to utilize and manage the market.Keywords: Gross Regional Domestic Product, Base Sector and Competitive Advantag

Pengelolaan Risiko Banjir Lahar Hujan Gunungapi Semeru Sektor Tenggara, Lumajang, Jawa Timur

Sabtu, 4 Desember 2021, Gunungapi Semeru mengalami erupsi memuntahkan material awan panas guguran dan banjir lahar hujan ke sekitar Sungai Besuk Kobokan di Kecamatan Pronojiwo dan Candipuro. Banyaknya korban yang jatuh pada erupsi Gunungapi Semeru 2021 diakibatkan karena adanya pusat aktivitas masyarakat di sekitar Sungai Besuk Kobokan serta kurangnya peringatan dan pengetahuan masyarakat akan pengurangan risiko bencana. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengupayakan pengelolaan risiko bencana di sub urusan sistem peringatan dini banjir lahar hujan Gunungapi Semeru. Fokus penelitian ini ada pada layanan pemantauan bahaya pada beberapa parameter yang mempengaruhi terjadinya banjir lahar hujan berbasis infrastruktur Internet of Things dan cloud computing yang akurat dan real-time

Perbaikan Kualitas Daya Pada Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Mikro Hidro Menggunakan Improvement Power Control For Generator

Micro Hydro Power Plant (PLTMH) is a type of small scale power plant that uses water energy by converting the potential energy of water into mechanical work to produce electrical energy. PLTMH usually has a smaller capacity compared to large-scale power plants. In general, PLTMH is widely used to supply electricity in remote areas that are difficult to reach by the main electricity network, therefore PLTMH is usually only equipped with a simple control system. The problem with the PLTMH control system is that it is not able to optimally anticipate changes in mechanical power and load. Because in principle, the frequency and output voltage of the PLTMH depend on the mechanical power of the falling water and the load connected to the PLTMH. It is changes in load that cause frequency and voltage instability. Frequency stability in PLTMH is generally controlled with an Electronic Load Controller (ELC) device. Meanwhile, the output voltage is controlled with Var control as reactive power compensation. Therefore, the explanation of this PLTMH problem is to design and implement an Improvement Power Control For Generator (IMPOSTER) scheme with a combination of ELC and Var control systems to maintain frequency values, power factor values and voltage in the PLTMH system

Strategi Pemasaran Pelayanan Home Care Rumah Sakit Umum Bhakti Rahayu Denpasar

ABSTRAK Perubahan pola penyakit menjadi penyakit degeneratif dan penyakit kronis semakin berkembang belakangan ini dan banyak rumah sakit yang belum mengembangkan pelayanan penyakit kronis. Rumah Sakit umum Bhakti Rahayu memiliki salah satunya layanan Home Care (HC) yang sudah berjalan tetapi belum berkembang dengan baik karena kurangnya pemasaran kepada pasien dengan kategori dan diagnosa penyakit yang dapat dilakukan perawatan HC, sehingga perlu dilakukan pengembangan dan perencanaan strategi dalam pemasaran layanan home care sebagai salah satu pendapatan rumah sakit. Studi ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan pola observasi dan partisipasi; wawancara mendalam pada petugas home care, pasien, dan direktur. Berdasarkan hasil studi, didapatkan informasi bahwa peluang dan potensi pengembangan HC dengan pola penentuan strategi yang tepat dapat membawa kearah yang baik sebagai salah satu pos pendapatan untuk di rumah sakit dengan mengutamakan kepuasan pasien sehingga keinginan pasien untuk membayar dapat terjadi dan pasien merasa nyaman dengan pelayanan yang diberikanevaluasi kualitas pelayanan yang berkelanjtan dan peningkatan skill dan perbaikan produk yang ditawarkan serta harga yang sesuai dapat menjadi nilai tawar yang cukup baik. Maka, dapat disimpulkan bahwa prospek pengembangan pelayanan HC di RS Umum Bhakti Rahayu cukup besar. Alternatif strategi pemasaran pada pasien yang berkunjung dan rawat inap serta menawarkan melalui media sosial dapat menjadi poin yang cukup kuat dalam memasarkan produk yang di tawarkan.  ABSTRACT Changes in the pattern of diseases to degenerative diseases and chronic diseases are growing lately and many hospitals have not yet developed chronic disease services. Bhakti Rahayu General Hospital has one of them Home Care (HC) services that has been running but has not developed well due to the lack of marketing to patients with categories and diagnoses of diseases that can be treated with HC, so it is necessary to develop and plan strategies in marketing home care services as one of the hospital's earnings. This study was conducted using a pattern of observation and participation; in-depth interviews with home care officers, patients and directors. Based on the results of the study, information was obtained that the opportunities and potential for developing HC with a pattern of determining the right strategy can lead to good direction as one of the income posts for the hospital by prioritizing patient satisfaction so that the patient's desire to pay can occur and the patient feels comfortable with the service provided. given an ongoing quality of service and improved skills and product improvements offered and the appropriate price can be a pretty good bargaining value. So, it can be concluded that the prospect of developing HC services in Bhakti Rahayu General Hospital is quite large. Alternative marketing strategies for visiting and hospitalized patients and offering through social media can be a strong enough point in marketing the products offered

Group Decision Support System Using SMART-COPELAND SCORE Model In Choosing The Best Alternative Pair

Purpose: Adjust the Group Decision Support System (GDSS) model in completing case studies of selecting the best alternative candidate pairs for the OSIS core board with many decision-makers and problems in the differences in the preferences of decision-makers as well as modeling in decision making with multi-criteria and multi-attributes and combining preferences decision-makers to choose the best alternative partner candidate.Design/methodology/approach: The Group Decision Support System (GDSS) model combines the SMART method for modeling multi-criteria and multi-attribute assessments and the Copeland Score model for aggregating the judgments of five decision-makers against the selected pair of OSIS core board candidates using a voting mechanism.Findings/result: The comparison test for the manual calculation of the SMART- Copeland Score Model method with the results of the system calculation is the same. From the ten alternative data in the first stage of the test through the SMART method calculation, it then passes into four alternatives divided into two alternative candidate pairs, namely alternative candidate pairs (A1, A3) and alternative candidate pairs (A2, A4). The second stage test uses calculations Copeland Score voting, which produces the best alternative candidate pair, namely alternative (A1, A3) with a final point score = 4.Originality/value/state of the art: Based on a review of previous research, this study uses line-up criteria, written tests, and interview tests with the SMART method to calculate alternative scores on each criteria, and the Copeland Score model to aggregate decision makers' preferences to produce the best alternative candidate pairs. In calculating the final value of the alternative ranking