Modelling across extremal dependence classes

Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent. Most available statistical models suit one or other of these cases, but not both, resulting in a stage in the inference that is unaccounted for, but can substantially impact subsequent extrapolation. Existing modelling solutions to this problem are either applicable only on sub-domains, or appeal to multiple limit theories. We introduce a unified representation for bivariate extremes that encompasses a wide variety of dependence scenarios, and applies when at least one variable is large. Our representation motivates a parametric model that encompasses both dependence classes. We implement a simple version of this model, and show that it performs well in a range of settings

A model for permeability evolution during volcanic welding

Volcanic ash and pyroclasts can weld when deposited hot by pyroclastic density currents, in near-vent fall deposits, or in fractures in volcano interiors. Welding progressively decreases the permeability of the particle packs, influencing a range of magmatic and volcanic processes, including magma outgassing, which is an important control on eruption dynamics. Consequently, there is a need for a quantitative model for permeability evolution during welding of ash and pyroclasts under the range of conditions encountered in nature. Here we present in situ experiments in which hydrous, crystal-free, glassy pyroclasts are imaged via x-ray tomography during welding at high temperature. For each 3D dataset acquired, we determine the porosity, Darcian gas permeability, specific surface area, and pore connectivity. We find that all of these quantities decrease as a critical percolation threshold is approached. We develop a constitutive mathematical model for the evolution of permeability in welding volcanic systems based on percolation theory, and validate the model against our experimental data. Importantly, our model accounts for polydispersivity of the grainsize in the particle pack, the pressures acting on the pack, and changes in particle viscosity arising from degassing of dissolved H2O during welding. Our model is theoretically grounded and has no fitting parameters, hence it should be valid across all magma compositions. The model can be used to predict whether a cooling pyroclast pack will have sufficient time to weld and to degas, the scenarios under which a final deposit will retain a permeable network, the timescales over which sealing occurs, and whether a welded deposit will have disequilibrium or equilibrium H2O content. A user-friendly implementation of the model is provided

Adding 6 months of androgen deprivation therapy to postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of short-course versus no androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised controlled trial

Background Previous evidence indicates that adjuvant, short-course androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improves metastasis-free survival when given with primary radiotherapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the value of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy is unclear. Methods RADICALS-HD was an international randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of ADT used in combination with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to radiotherapy alone (no ADT) or radiotherapy with 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT), using monthly subcutaneous gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue injections, daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as distant metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. Standard survival analysis methods were used, accounting for randomisation stratification factors. The trial had 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 80% to 86% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·67). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047. Findings Between Nov 22, 2007, and June 29, 2015, 1480 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 61–69]) were randomly assigned to receive no ADT (n=737) or short-course ADT (n=743) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 121 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 9·0 years (IQR 7·1–10·1), metastasis-free survival events were reported for 268 participants (142 in the no ADT group and 126 in the short-course ADT group; HR 0·886 [95% CI 0·688–1·140], p=0·35). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 79·2% (95% CI 75·4–82·5) in the no ADT group and 80·4% (76·6–83·6) in the short-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 121 (17%) of 737 participants in the no ADT group and 100 (14%) of 743 in the short-course ADT group (p=0·15), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Metastatic disease is uncommon following postoperative bed radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adding 6 months of ADT to this radiotherapy did not improve metastasis-free survival compared with no ADT. These findings do not support the use of short-course ADT with postoperative radiotherapy in this patient population

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society

Peri-urbanisation and biosecurity: a planning perspective

The State of Australian Cities (SOAC) national conferences have been held biennially since 2003 to support interdisciplinary policy-related urban research. This paper was presented at SOAC 5held in Melbourne from 29 November – 2 December 2011. SOAC 5 was hosted by the University of Melbourne, RMIT University, Monash University, Swinburne University of Technology and Latrobe University as well as the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and the Grattan Institute, the Victorian State Government and the City of Melbourne. Three plenary panels brought researchers from across the country to address ‘big issues’: place-based disadvantage, the design and form of Australian cities, and metropolitan governance. Over 175 papers, in 46 themed sessions, cover topics ranging from planning and governance for environmental sustainability, to housing affordability and adequacy in the context of an aging population. Healthy communities, better public transport, high quality open space, participatory planning, and issues affecting the peri-urban fringe are also strong sub-themes within this conference. All published papers have been subject to a peer reviewing process

Multivariate peaks over thresholds models

Multivariate peaks over thresholds modeling based on generalized Pareto distributions has up to now only been used in few and mostly low-dimensional situations. This paper contributes to the theoretical understanding, physically based models, inference tools, and simulation methods needed to support routine use, also in high dimensions. We derive a general model for extreme episodes in data, and show how conditioning the distribution of extreme episodes on threshold exceedance gives three basic representations of the family of generalized Pareto distributions. The first representation is constructed on the real scale of the observations. The second one starts with a model on a standard exponential scale which then is transformed to the real scale. The third is a spectral representation proposed in A. Ferreira and L. de Haan [Bernoulli 20 (2014) 1717-1737]. Numerically tractable forms of densities and censored densities are derived, and give tools for exible parametric likelihood inference. Our results are aimed at statistical analysis of complex and multidimensional extreme episodes, such as simultaneous ooding of many dykes; landslides caused by heavy rainfall over one or several days; or deaths caused by a sequence of very hot nights during a heat wave

The Airedale project: designing electronics curriculum around girls interests

As a teacher of Design and Technology, I was concerned by the very wide range of ability of pupils I taught, and the frequency of learning difficulties. I suspected that some learning difficulties might be common across the curriculum. I was also interested in what training teachers had had to help them cope with learning difficulties, and what further training teachers felt might be useful. I devised a questionnaire, designed to try to answer these questions, and used it to conduct a survey of teachers working at the high schools in the Tamworth and Lichfield area of Staffordshire. This paper reports the analysis of the data produced by the questionnaire and discusses some of the issues raised

Conduit margin heating and deformation during the AD 1886 basaltic Plinian eruption at Tarawera volcano, New Zealand

During explosive eruptions, a suspension of gas and pyroclasts rises rapidly within a conduit. Here, we have analysed textures preserved in the walls of a pyroclastic feeder dyke of the AD 1886 Tarawera basaltic Plinian fissure eruption. The samples examined consist of basaltic ash and scoria plastered onto a conduit wall of a coherent rhyolite dome and a welded rhyolitic dome breccia. We examine the textural evidence for the response of the wall material, built of ∼75 vol.% glass and ∼25 vol.% crystals (pore-free equivalent), to mass movement in the adjacent conduit. In the rhyolitic wall material, we quantify the orientation and aspect ratio of biotite crystals as strain markers of simple shear deformation, and interpret juxtaposed regions of vesiculation and vesicle collapse as evidence of conduit wall heating. Systematic changes occur close to the margin: (1) porosity is highly variable, with areas locally vesiculated or densified, (2) biotite crystals are oriented with their long axis parallel to the margin, (3) the biotites have greater aspect ratios close to the margin and (4) the biotite crystals are fractured. We interpret the biotite phenocryst deformation to result from crystal fracture, rotation and cleavage-parallel bookcase translation. These textural observations are inferred to indicate mechanical coupling between the hot gas-ash jet and the conduit wall and reheating of wall rock rhyolite. We couple these observations with a simple 1D conductive heating model to show what minimum temperature the conduit wall needs to reach in order to achieve a temperature above the glass transition throughout the texturally-defined deformed zone. We propose that conduit wall heating and resulting deformation influences conduit margin outgassing and may enhance the intensity of such large basaltic eruptions