RCTs: How compatible are they with policy-making?

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been promoted as a means of improving policy-making by testing new policies. While testing before full-scale roll-out is commendable, this paper discusses the challenges of using RCTs in contemporary (national) health policy-making in England. There are at least two challenges in particular that are currently underrepresented in the debate: The first arises from the complexity of many policies which are often too diffuse and unclear in focus to allow for the clear distinction between a policy ‘mechanism’ and its context to be drawn that is required for a RCT. The second challenge relates to the timing of RCTs, which tend to take place either too early in the life of a policy to be meaningful or too late to have an effect on policy formulation. We therefore encourage policy-makers and researchers to be clear about the types of uncertainties ‘field experiments’ are meant to address which may be addressed better by other types of knowledge generation

Complexity of Bradley-Manna-Sipma Lexicographic Ranking Functions

In this paper we turn the spotlight on a class of lexicographic ranking functions introduced by Bradley, Manna and Sipma in a seminal CAV 2005 paper, and establish for the first time the complexity of some problems involving the inference of such functions for linear-constraint loops (without precondition). We show that finding such a function, if one exists, can be done in polynomial time in a way which is sound and complete when the variables range over the rationals (or reals). We show that when variables range over the integers, the problem is harder -- deciding the existence of a ranking function is coNP-complete. Next, we study the problem of minimizing the number of components in the ranking function (a.k.a. the dimension). This number is interesting in contexts like computing iteration bounds and loop parallelization. Surprisingly, and unlike the situation for some other classes of lexicographic ranking functions, we find that even deciding whether a two-component ranking function exists is harder than the unrestricted problem: NP-complete over the rationals and $\Sigma^P_2$-complete over the integers.Comment: Technical report for a corresponding CAV'15 pape

Estimation of Dietary Iron Bioavailability from Food Iron Intake and Iron Status

Currently there are no satisfactory methods for estimating dietary iron absorption (bioavailability) at a population level, but this is essential for deriving dietary reference values using the factorial approach. The aim of this work was to develop a novel approach for estimating dietary iron absorption using a population sample from a sub-section of the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS). Data were analyzed in 873 subjects from the 2000–2001 adult cohort of the NDNS, for whom both dietary intake data and hematological measures (hemoglobin and serum ferritin (SF) concentrations) were available. There were 495 men aged 19–64 y (mean age 42.7±12.1 y) and 378 pre-menopausal women (mean age 35.7±8.2 y). Individual dietary iron requirements were estimated using the Institute of Medicine calculations. A full probability approach was then applied to estimate the prevalence of dietary intakes that were insufficient to meet the needs of the men and women separately, based on their estimated daily iron intake and a series of absorption values ranging from 1–40%. The prevalence of SF concentrations below selected cut-off values (indicating that absorption was not high enough to maintain iron stores) was derived from individual SF concentrations. An estimate of dietary iron absorption required to maintain specified SF values was then calculated by matching the observed prevalence of insufficiency with the prevalence predicted for the series of absorption estimates. Mean daily dietary iron intakes were 13.5 mg for men and 9.8 mg for women. Mean calculated dietary absorption was 8% in men (50th percentile for SF 85 µg/L) and 17% in women (50th percentile for SF 38 µg/L). At a ferritin level of 45 µg/L estimated absorption was similar in men (14%) and women (13%). This new method can be used to calculate dietary iron absorption at a population level using data describing total iron intake and SF concentration

Adapted motivational interviewing to improve the uptake of treatment for glaucoma in Nigeria: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Glaucoma is a chronic eye disease associated with irreversible visual loss. In Africa, glaucoma patients often present late, with very advanced disease. One-off procedures, such as laser or surgery, are recommended in Africa because of lack of or poor adherence to medical treatment. However, acceptance of surgery is usually extremely low. To prevent blindness, adherence to treatment needs to improve, using acceptable, replicable and cost-effective interventions. After reviewing the literature and interviewing patients in Bauchi (Nigeria) motivational interviewing (MI) was selected as the intervention for this trial, with adaptation for glaucoma (MIG). MI is designed to strengthen personal motivation for, and commitment to a specific goal by eliciting and exploring a person's reasons for change within an atmosphere of acceptance and compassion. The aim of this study is to assess whether MIG increases the uptake of laser or surgery amongst glaucoma patients where this is the recommended treatment. The hypothesis is that MIG increases the uptake of treatment. This will be the first trial of MI in Africa. METHODS: This is a hospital based, single centre, randomized controlled trial of MIG plus an information sheet on glaucoma and its treatment (the latter being "standard care") compared with standard care alone for glaucoma patients where the treatment recommended is surgery or laser.Those eligible for the trial are adults aged 17 years and above who live within 200 km of Bauchi with advanced glaucoma where the examining ophthalmologist recommends surgery or laser. After obtaining written informed consent, participants will be randomly allocated to MIG plus standard care, or standard care alone. Motivational interviewing will be delivered in Hausa or English by one of two MIG trained personnel. One hundred and fifty participants will be recruited to each arm. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants undergoing laser or surgery within two months of the date given to re attend for the procedure. MIG quality will be assessed using the validated MI treatment integrity scale. DISCUSSION: Motivational interviewing may be an important tool to increase the acceptance of treatment for glaucoma. The approach is potentially scalable and may be useful for other chronic conditions in Africa. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN79330571 (Controlled-Trials.com)

Investigations on the Peach 4 Debrite, a Late Pleistocene Mass Movement on the Northwest British Continental Margin

The Peach 4 debrite is the most recent in a series of large scale Pleistocene MTDs within the Barra fan on the northwest British continental margin. Geophysical data indicate that Peach 4 was formed through a combination of blocky and muddy debris flows and affects an area of ~ 700 km2. BGS core sample 56 -10 36, located directly over the Peach 4 debrite, provides a minimum age of 14.68 ka cal BP for the last major failure. An upwards fining turbidite sequence in BGS core sample 56 -10 239 is associ-ated with increased As and S concentrations, indicators of diagenetic pyrite which forms under anoxic conditions. It is proposed that As and S concentrations may pro-vide a method of distinguishing between contourite and turbidite sedimentation, though further research is required

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Can screening and brief intervention lead to population-level reductions in alcohol-related harm?

A distinction is made between the clinical and public health justifications for screening and brief intervention (SBI) against hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. Early claims for a public health benefit of SBI derived from research on general medical practitioners' (GPs') advice on smoking cessation, but these claims have not been realized, mainly because GPs have not incorporated SBI into their routine practice. A recent modeling exercise estimated that, if all GPs in England screened every patient at their next consultation, 96% of the general population would be screened over 10 years, with 70-79% of excessive drinkers receiving brief interventions (BI); assuming a 10% success rate, this would probably amount to a population-level effect of SBI. Thus, a public health benefit for SBI presupposes widespread screening; but recent government policy in England favors targeted versus universal screening, and in Scotland screening is based on new registrations and clinical presentation. A recent proposal for a national screening program was rejected by the UK National Health Service's National Screening Committee because 1) there was no good evidence that SBI led to reductions in mortality or morbidity, and 2) a safe, simple, precise, and validated screening test was not available. Even in countries like Sweden and Finland, where expensive national programs to disseminate SBI have been implemented, only a minority of the population has been asked about drinking during health-care visits, and a minority of excessive drinkers has been advised to cut down. Although there has been research on the relationship between treatment for alcohol problems and population-level effects, there has been no such research for SBI, nor have there been experimental investigations of its relationship with population-level measures of alcohol-related harm. These are strongly recommended. In this article, conditions that would allow a population-level effect of SBI to occur are reviewed, including their political acceptability. It is tentatively concluded that widespread dissemination of SBI, without the implementation of alcohol control measures, might have indirect influences on levels of consumption and harm but would be unlikely on its own to result in public health benefits. However, if and when alcohol control measures were introduced, SBI would still have an important role in the battle against alcohol-related harm

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force consensus proposal: Medical treatment of canine epilepsy in Europe

In Europe, the number of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) licensed for dogs has grown considerably over the last years. Nevertheless, the same questions remain, which include, 1) when to start treatment, 2) which drug is best used initially, 3) which adjunctive AED can be advised if treatment with the initial drug is unsatisfactory, and 4) when treatment changes should be considered. In this consensus proposal, an overview is given on the aim of AED treatment, when to start long-term treatment in canine epilepsy and which veterinary AEDs are currently in use for dogs. The consensus proposal for drug treatment protocols, 1) is based on current published evidence-based literature, 2) considers the current legal framework of the cascade regulation for the prescription of veterinary drugs in Europe, and 3) reflects the authors’ experience. With this paper it is aimed to provide a consensus for the management of canine idiopathic epilepsy. Furthermore, for the management of structural epilepsy AEDs are inevitable in addition to treating the underlying cause, if possible

Massive stars as thermonuclear reactors and their explosions following core collapse

Nuclear reactions transform atomic nuclei inside stars. This is the process of stellar nucleosynthesis. The basic concepts of determining nuclear reaction rates inside stars are reviewed. How stars manage to burn their fuel so slowly most of the time are also considered. Stellar thermonuclear reactions involving protons in hydrostatic burning are discussed first. Then I discuss triple alpha reactions in the helium burning stage. Carbon and oxygen survive in red giant stars because of the nuclear structure of oxygen and neon. Further nuclear burning of carbon, neon, oxygen and silicon in quiescent conditions are discussed next. In the subsequent core-collapse phase, neutronization due to electron capture from the top of the Fermi sea in a degenerate core takes place. The expected signal of neutrinos from a nearby supernova is calculated. The supernova often explodes inside a dense circumstellar medium, which is established due to the progenitor star losing its outermost envelope in a stellar wind or mass transfer in a binary system. The nature of the circumstellar medium and the ejecta of the supernova and their dynamics are revealed by observations in the optical, IR, radio, and X-ray bands, and I discuss some of these observations and their interpretations.Comment: To be published in " Principles and Perspectives in Cosmochemistry" Lecture Notes on Kodai School on Synthesis of Elements in Stars; ed. by Aruna Goswami & Eswar Reddy, Springer Verlag, 2009. Contains 21 figure