Simulating Dynamical Features of Escape Panic

One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires in crowded buildings; at other times, stampedes can arise from the rush for seats or seemingly without causes. Tragic examples within recent months include the panics in Harare, Zimbabwe, and at the Roskilde rock concert in Denmark. Although engineers are finding ways to alleviate the scale of such disasters, their frequency seems to be increasing with the number and size of mass events. Yet, systematic studies of panic behaviour, and quantitative theories capable of predicting such crowd dynamics, are rare. Here we show that simulations based on a model of pedestrian behaviour can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of and preconditions for panic and jamming by incoordination. Our results suggest practical ways of minimising the harmful consequences of such events and the existence of an optimal escape strategy, corresponding to a suitable mixture of individualistic and collective behaviour.Comment: For related information see http://angel.elte.hu/~panic, http://www.helbing.org, http://angel.elte.hu/~fij, and http://angel.elte.hu/~vicse

Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Hidden Markov Models in continuous time

The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to I.Ibragimov and R.Khasminskii, consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of moments are established for MLE under certain strong ergodicity conditions of the chain.Comment: Warning: due to a flaw in the publishing process, some of the references in the published version of the article are confuse

Quantifying myosin light chain phosphorylation in single adherent cells with automated fluorescence microscopy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In anchorage dependent cells, myosin generated contractile forces affect events closely associated with adhesion such as the formation of stress fibers and focal adhesions, and temporally distal events such as entry of the cell into S-phase. As occurs in many signaling pathways, a phosphorylation reaction (in this case, phosphorylation of myosin light chain) is directly responsible for cell response. Western blotting has been useful in measuring intracellular phosphorylation events, but cells are lysed in the process of sample preparation for western blotting, and spatial information such as morphology, localization of the phosphorylated species, and the distribution of individual cell responses across the population is lost. We report here a reliable automated microscopy method for quantitative measurement of myosin light chain phosphorylation in adherent cells. This method allows us to concurrently examine cell morphology, cell-cell contact, and myosin light chain diphosphorylation in vascular smooth muscle cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Paraformaldehyde fixation and Triton X-100 permeabilization preserved cell morphology and myosin light chain phosphorylation better than the alternative fixation/permeabilization methods tested. We utilized automated microscopy methods to acquire three color images, determine cell spread area, and quantify the intensity of staining within each cell with anti-phospho-MLC antibody. Our results indicate that A10 rat aortic smooth muscle cells exhibit a re producible non-Gaussian distribution of MLC phosphorylation across a population of unsynchronized genetically identical cells. Adding an inhibitor of Rho kinase, Y27632, or plating cells on a low density of fibronectin, reduced phospho-myosin light chain signal as expected. On the other hand, adding calyculin A, an activator of contractility, increased myosin light chain phosphorylation. The IC₅₀for myosin light chain phosphorylation using Y27632 was determined to be 2.1 ± 0.6 micrometers. We observed a positive linear relationship between cell area and myosin light chain diphosphorylation, which is consistent with what has been reported in the literature using other methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results show that using proper specimen fixation techniques and background subtraction methods, imaging cytometry can be used to reliably measure relative myosin light chain phosphorylation in individual adherent cells. Importantly, the ability to make this measurement in adherent cells allows for simultaneous measurement of and correlation with other parameters of cellular topography such as morphology and cell-cell proximity. This assay has potential application in screening for drug development.</p

Designing an automated clinical decision support system to match clinical practice guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic pain

Abstract Background Opioid prescribing for chronic pain is common and controversial, but recommended clinical practices are followed inconsistently in many clinical settings. Strategies for increasing adherence to clinical practice guideline recommendations are needed to increase effectiveness and reduce negative consequences of opioid prescribing in chronic pain patients. Methods Here we describe the process and outcomes of a project to operationalize the 2003 VA/DOD Clinical Practice Guideline for Opioid Therapy for Chronic Non-Cancer Pain into a computerized decision support system (DSS) to encourage good opioid prescribing practices during primary care visits. We based the DSS on the existing ATHENA-DSS. We used an iterative process of design, testing, and revision of the DSS by a diverse team including guideline authors, medical informatics experts, clinical content experts, and end-users to convert the written clinical practice guideline into a computable algorithm to generate patient-specific recommendations for care based upon existing information in the electronic medical record (EMR), and a set of clinical tools. Results The iterative revision process identified numerous and varied problems with the initially designed system despite diverse expert participation in the design process. The process of operationalizing the guideline identified areas in which the guideline was vague, left decisions to clinical judgment, or required clarification of detail to insure safe clinical implementation. The revisions led to workable solutions to problems, defined the limits of the DSS and its utility in clinical practice, improved integration into clinical workflow, and improved the clarity and accuracy of system recommendations and tools. Conclusions Use of this iterative process led to development of a multifunctional DSS that met the approval of the clinical practice guideline authors, content experts, and clinicians involved in testing. The process and experiences described provide a model for development of other DSSs that translate written guidelines into actionable, real-time clinical recommendations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/1/1748-5908-5-26.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/2/1748-5908-5-26.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/3/1748-5908-5-26-S3.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/4/1748-5908-5-26-S2.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/5/1748-5908-5-26-S1.TIFFPeer Reviewe

Cumulate causes for the low contents of sulfide-loving elements in the continental crust

Despite the economic importance of chalcophile (sulfide-loving) and siderophile (metal-loving) elements (CSEs), it is unclear how they become enriched or depleted in the continental crust, compared with the oceanic crust. This is due in part to our limited understanding of the partitioning behaviour of the CSEs. Here I compile compositional data for mid-ocean ridge basalts and subduction-related volcanic rocks. I show that the mantle-derived melts that contribute to oceanic and continental crust formation rarely avoid sulfide saturation during cooling in the crust and, on average, subduction-zone magmas fractionate sulfide at the base of the continental crust prior to ascent. Differentiation of mantle-derived melts enriches lower crustal sulfide- and silicate-bearing cumulates in some CSEs compared with the upper crust. This storage predisposes the cumulate-hosted compatible CSEs (such as Cu and Au) to be recycled back into the mantle during subduction and delamination, resulting in their low contents in the bulk continental crust and potentially contributing to the scarcity of ore deposits in the upper continental crust. By contrast, differentiation causes the upper oceanic and continental crust to become enriched in incompatible CSEs (such as W) compared with the lower oceanic and continental crust. Consequently, incompatible CSEs are predisposed to become enriched in subduction-zone magmas that contribute to continental crust formation and are less susceptible to removal from the continental crust via delamination compared with the compatible CSEs

Gravitino dark matter in the constrained next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model with neutralino next-to-lightest superpartner

The viability of a possible cosmological scenario is investigated. The theoretical framework is the constrained next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model (cNMSSM), with a gravitino playing the role of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) and a neutralino acting as the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP). All the necessary constraints from colliders and cosmology have been taken into account. For gravitino we have considered the two usual production mechanisms, namely out-of equillibrium decay from the NLSP, and scattering processes from the thermal bath. The maximum allowed reheating temperature after inflation, as well as the maximum allowed gravitino mass are determined.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure

Observation of Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering

The coherent elastic scattering of neutrinos off nuclei has eluded detection for four decades, even though its predicted cross-section is the largest by far of all low-energy neutrino couplings. This mode of interaction provides new opportunities to study neutrino properties, and leads to a miniaturization of detector size, with potential technological applications. We observe this process at a 6.7-sigma confidence level, using a low-background, 14.6-kg CsI[Na] scintillator exposed to the neutrino emissions from the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Characteristic signatures in energy and time, predicted by the Standard Model for this process, are observed in high signal-to-background conditions. Improved constraints on non-standard neutrino interactions with quarks are derived from this initial dataset