Climate change: Helping nature survive the human response

Climate change poses profound, direct, and well-documented threats to biodiversity. A significant fraction of Earth\u27s species is at risk of extinction due to changing precipitation and temperature regimes, rising and acidifying oceans, and other factors. There is also growing awareness of the diversity and magnitude of responses, both proactive and reactive, that people will undertake as lives and livelihoods are affected by climate change. Yet to date few studies have examined the relationship between these two powerful forces. The natural systems upon which people depend, already under direct assault from climate change, are further threatened by how we respond to climate change. Human history and recent studies suggest that our actions to cope with climate change (adaptation) or lessen its rate and magnitude (mitigation) could have impacts that match-and even exceed-the direct effects of climate change on ecosystems. If we are to successfully conserve biodiversity and maintain ecosystem services in a warming world, considerable effort is needed to predict and reduce the indirect risks created by climate change. ©2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Does biodiversity benefit when the logging stops? An analysis of conservation risks and opportunities in active versus inactive logging concessions in Borneo

The island of Borneo is a biodiversity hotspot of global importance that continues to suffer from one of the highest deforestation rates in the tropics. Selective logging concessions overlay a third of the remaining natural forests in the Indonesian part of Borneo, but many of these concessions have become inactive in recent years. Whereas the cessation of logging could be beneficial to biodiversity, the absence of a logging company's presence in the forest could also leave the concession open to deforestation by other actors. Using remote sensing analyses, we evaluate 1) whether inactive concessions are more likely to suffer from deforestation than active ones, 2) the possible reasons why concessions become inactive, and 3) which inactive concessions hold the most potential for biodiversity conservation, if protected from deforestation. Our analysis shows that, counterintuitively, inactive concessions overall suffer a higher rate of forest loss than active ones. We find that small concession size and high elevation are correlated with inactive status. We identified several inactive concessions that, if maintained as natural forest, could significantly contribute to biodiversity conservation, as exemplified by their importance to two umbrella species: Bornean orangutan (Critically Endangered) and Sunda clouded leopard (Vulnerable). Because timber operations in other tropical regions are likely to experience similar cycles of activity and inactivity, the fate of inactive timber concessions and the opportunities they create for conservation deserve much greater attention from conservation scientists and practitioners

Stable isotope analysis provides new information on winter habitat use of declining avian migrants that is relevant to their conservation

Winter habitat use and the magnitude of migratory connectivity are important parameters when assessing drivers of the marked declines in avian migrants. Such information is unavailable for most species. We use a stable isotope approach to assess these factors for three declining African-Eurasian migrants whose winter ecology is poorly known: wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, house martin Delichon urbicum and common swift Apus apus. Spatially segregated breeding wood warbler populations (sampled across a 800 km transect), house martins and common swifts (sampled across a 3,500 km transect) exhibited statistically identical intra-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in winter grown feathers. Such patterns are compatible with a high degree of migratory connectivity, but could arise if species use isotopically similar resources at different locations. Wood warbler carbon isotope ratios are more depleted than typical for African-Eurasian migrants and are compatible with use of moist lowland forest. The very limited variance in these ratios indicates specialisation on isotopically restricted resources, which may drive the similarity in wood warbler populations' stable isotope ratios and increase susceptibility to environmental change within its wintering grounds. House martins were previously considered to primarily use moist montane forest during the winter, but this seems unlikely given the enriched nature of their carbon isotope ratios. House martins use a narrower isotopic range of resources than the common swift, indicative of increased specialisation or a relatively limited wintering range; both factors could increase house martins' vulnerability to environmental change. The marked variance in isotope ratios within each common swift population contributes to the lack of population specific signatures and indicates that the species is less vulnerable to environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa than our other focal species. Our findings demonstrate how stable isotope research can contribute to understanding avian migrants' winter ecology and conservation status

The high costs of conserving Southeast Asia\u27s lowland rainforests

Mechanisms that mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions via forest conservation have been portrayed as a cost-effective approach that can also protect biodiversity and vital ecosystem services. However, the costs of conservation - including opportunity costs - are spatially heterogeneous across the globe. The lowland rainforests of Southeast Asia represent a unique nexus of large carbon stores, imperiled biodiversity, large stores of timber, and high potential for conversion to oil-palm plantations, making this region one where understanding the costs of conservation is critical. Previous studies have underestimated the gap between conservation costs and conversion benefits in Southeast Asia. Using detailed logging records, cost data, and species-specific timber auction prices from Borneo, we show that the profitability of logging, in combination with potential profits from subsequent conversion to palm-oil production, greatly exceeds foreseeable revenues from a global carbon market and other ecosystem-service payment mechanisms. Thus, the conservation community faces a massive funding shortfall to protect the remaining lowland primary forests in Southeast Asia. © 2011 The Ecological Society of America

On the origin of the invasive olives (Olea europaea L., Oleaceae).

The olive tree (Olea europaea) has successfully invaded several regions in Australia and Pacific islands. Two olive subspecies (subspp. europaea and cuspidata) were first introduced in these areas during the nineteenth century. In the present study, we determine the origin of invasive olives and investigate the importance of historical effects on the genetic diversity of populations. Four invasive populations from Australia and Hawaii were characterized using eight nuclear DNA microsatellites, plastid DNA markers as well as ITS-1 sequences. Based on these data, their genetic similarity with native populations was investigated, and it was determined that East Australian and Hawaiian populations (subsp. cuspidata) have originated from southern Africa while South Australian populations (subsp. europaea) have mostly derived from western or central Mediterranean cultivars. Invasive populations of subsp. cuspidata showed significant loss of genetic diversity in comparison to a putative source population, and a recent bottleneck was evidenced in Hawaii. Conversely, invasive populations of subsp. europaea did not display significant loss of genetic diversity in comparison to a native Mediterranean population. Different histories of invasion were inferred for these two taxa with multiple cultivars introduced restoring gene diversity for europaea and a single successful founder event and sequential introductions to East Australia and then Hawaii for cuspidata. Furthermore, one hybrid (cuspidata x europaea) was identified in East Australia. The importance of hybridizations in the future evolution of the olive invasiveness remains to be investigated

Predicted Impact of Barriers to Migration on the Serengeti Wildebeest Population

The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological phenomenon. A proposed road project threatens to bisect the Serengeti ecosystem and its integrity. The precautionary principle dictates that we consider the possible consequences of a road completely disrupting the migration. We used an existing spatially-explicit simulation model of wildebeest movement and population dynamics to explore how placing a barrier to migration across the proposed route (thus creating two disjoint but mobile subpopulations) might affect the long-term size of the wildebeest population. Our simulation results suggest that a barrier to migration—even without causing habitat loss—could cause the wildebeest population to decline by about a third. The driver of this decline is the effect of habitat fragmentation (even without habitat loss) on the ability of wildebeest to effectively track temporal shifts in high-quality forage resources across the landscape. Given the important role of the wildebeest migration for a number of key ecological processes, these findings have potentially important ramifications for ecosystem biodiversity, structure, and function in the Serengeti

Reconstructed Dynamics of Rapid Extinctions of Chaparral-Requiring Birds in Urban Habitat Islands

The distribution of native, chaparral-requiring bird species was determined for 37 isolated fragments of canyon habitat ranging in size from 0.4 to 104 hectares in coastal, urban San Diego County, California The area of chaparral habitat and canyon age (time since isolation of the habitat fragment) explains most of the variation in the number of chaparral-requiring bird species. In addition, the distribution of native predators may influence species number. There is statistical evidence that coyotes control the populations of smaller predators such as foxes and domestic cats. The absence of coyotes may lead to higher levels of predation by a process of mesopredator release. The distance of canyons from other patches of chaparral habitat does not add significantly to the explained variance in chaparral-requiring species number–probably because of the virtual inability of most chaparral-requiring species to disperse through developed areas and nonscrub habitats. These results and other lines of evidence suggest that chaparral-requiring birds in isolated canyons have very high rates of extinction, in part because of their low vagility. The best predictors of vulnerability of the individual species are their abundances (densities) in undisturbed habitat and their body sizes; together these two variables account for 95 percent of the variation in canyon occupancy. A hypothesis is proposed to account for the similarity between the steep slopes of species-area curves for chaparral-requiring birds and the slopes for some forest birds on small islands or in habitat fragments. The provision of corridors appears to be the most effective design and planning feature for preventing the elimination of chaparral-requiring species in a fragmented landscape.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74761/1/j.1523-1739.1988.tb00337.x.pd

Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America?

BACKGROUND: Biological invasion and climate change pose challenges to biodiversity conservation in the 21(st) century. Invasive species modify ecosystem structure and functioning and climatic changes are likely to produce invasive species' range shifts pushing some populations into protected areas. The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is one of the hundred worst invasive species in the world. Native from the southeast of USA, it has colonized more than 75% of South America where it has been reported as a highly effective predator, competitor and vector of amphibian diseases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modeled the potential distribution of the bullfrog in its native range based on different climate models and green-house gases emission scenarios, and projected the results onto South America for the years of 2050 and 2080. We also overlaid projected models onto the South American network of protected areas. Our results indicate a slight decrease in potential suitable area for bullfrog invasion, although protected areas will become more climatically suitable. Therefore, invasion of these sites is forecasted. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: We provide new evidence supporting the vulnerability of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot to bullfrog invasion and call attention to optimal future climatic conditions of the Andean-Patagonian forest, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Bolivia, where invasive populations have not been found yet. We recommend several management and policy strategies to control bullfrog invasion and argue that these would be possible if based on appropriate articulation among government agencies, NGOs, research institutions and civil society

The Effect of Structural Complexity, Prey Density, and “Predator-Free Space” on Prey Survivorship at Created Oyster Reef Mesocosms

Interactions between predators and their prey are influenced by the habitat they occupy. Using created oyster (Crassostrea virginica) reef mesocosms, we conducted a series of laboratory experiments that created structure and manipulated complexity as well as prey density and “predator-free space” to examine the relationship between structural complexity and prey survivorship. Specifically, volume and spatial arrangement of oysters as well as prey density were manipulated, and the survivorship of prey (grass shrimp, Palaemonetes pugio) in the presence of a predator (wild red drum, Sciaenops ocellatus) was quantified. We found that the presence of structure increased prey survivorship, and that increasing complexity of this structure further increased survivorship, but only to a point. This agrees with the theory that structural complexity may influence predator-prey dynamics, but that a threshold exists with diminishing returns. These results held true even when prey density was scaled to structural complexity, or the amount of “predator-free space” was manipulated within our created reef mesocosms. The presence of structure and its complexity (oyster shell volume) were more important in facilitating prey survivorship than perceived refugia or density-dependent prey effects. A more accurate indicator of refugia might require “predator-free space” measures that also account for the available area within the structure itself (i.e., volume) and not just on the surface of a structure. Creating experiments that better mimic natural conditions and test a wider range of “predator-free space” are suggested to better understand the role of structural complexity in oyster reefs and other complex habitats